I'm writing a short paper (10-20 pages) on an insurgency of my choice. I've decided to argue that the Muslim Brotherhood is an international insurgency that threatens US interests in the Middle East.

1. The MB has a revisionist agenda that seeks to overturn the current political order in the ME (a system that favors the US presently IMO). Its factions in Palestine (Hamas), Egypt, and to a lesser degree in Sudan and Syria undermine political stability through subversion and, at times, violence.

2. The 'mass base' (I don't like this term personally, as I believe its too broad) supports the MB because of widespread disenfranchisement in Palestine, Egypt, and Syria. Continued US favor of the regimes in Israel and Egypt reinforces anti-US sentiment in the general population.

3. Consequently, democratic reforms will only empower the MB (as it did Hamas in Palestine). The subsequent refusal of the US to recognize the democratic results also undermines US credibility. Arab states in general face similar problems when pressured to liberalize (i.e. Egypt and Syria in the closing two decades of the 20th century); the instability caused by liberalization compels the states to become increasingly authoritarian, fueling further dissatisfaction. The electoral victory of Hamas represents the end of Arab nationalism and the triumph of religious radicalism.

4. Egypt in particular is key to political stability. With the largest population, it is the most vulnerable to popular passions and also can potentially exist as the largest threat. While the "moderate" Mubarak regime remains in place, Egypt ensures regional stability by forming a bridge between other Arab regimes and Israel; blocking the formation of any organized alliance against Israel (and subsequently the US). Similarly for Syria, but to a much lesser degree.

5. Political instability in the ME threatens US economic security (the foundation of US interests in the region). Because of Saudi Arabia's internal weakness (political patronage based on oil profits, distrust of the National Guard, large youth population with few opportunities, the strong Wahhabi factions, and the burden of having the "Two Holy Cities), the Kingdom cannot act openly in favor of the US while the US remains committed to Israel. And it sometimes must abandon the US (for the same reason the Shah's Iran did following the Yom Kippur War). Should another regional war occur, whether as a deliberate choice in policy or because of a series of unintended consequences (i.e. cross-border raids), Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf kingdoms will abandon the US.

6. However, this political order cannot be sustained indefinitely. As the regimes continue repressions and expend resources on patronage, the costs of stability becoming increasingly higher and the MB (and factions associated with it) become entrenched a steadily radicalizing population.

7. To prevent this from occurring, the US should a) abandon pressuring Arab regimes into democratization and instead favor liberalization, b) invest in the industrialization of Arab states as a means of establishing internal stability, c) co-opt Syria into the current political order and the War on Terrorism, and d) compel Israel to accept the Arab peace proposal (specifically the return to the pre-'67 borders).

Thoughts?