Observing Iran (catch all historical thread)

[Jedburgh]

Help Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan come up with a unified stance against Iran's military ambitions. Use the historical fear of the Turks to an advantage.

None of those countries cooperate with each in the context of normal relations. And none of them, at the moment, feel directly threatened by Iranian military ambitions. The likelihood of that particular grouping forming any type of united front for that purpose is non-existent.

...but that is quite a thought - getting Turkey and Armenia to work together to use the "historical fear of the Turks" against Iran...

[tequila]

Agree with RTK. Ahmedinejad will fall because Rafsanjani and Khamanei are both out to get him. Only his populism and institutional base in the basiji and among Iranian war veterans save him, but that will dissipate as Iran's economic picture gets worse.

[Mondor]

Only his populism and institutional base in the basiji and among Iranian war veterans save him, but that will dissipate as Iran's economic picture gets worse.

Wow, so it is only his populist policies and the support of these policies among a significant percentage of the population that allows him to stay in power. Sounds awfully.....democratic.

Back to the original premise, I don't see the harm in negotiating with the Iranian government. The problem will be to identify which government you are going to negotiate with. There is the formal government structure, the Revolutionary Guard, the shadow government, and any number of religious / political factions.

[nichols]

...but that is quite a thought - getting Turkey and Armenia to work together to use the "historical fear of the Turks" against Iran...

I think an alliance between those three countries would effect Iran. A much better azimuth then sending in Divisions, Wings, & Carrier Groups.

However, Turaj Atabaki, professor of Iranian and Central Asian studies at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands, told RFE/RL that the U.S. presence in the region is a major barrier against the further expansion of Iranian ties with the five Central Asian republics .

"The U.S. does not accept under any conditions the expanding of ties between the Central Asian republics and the Islamic Republic of Iran," Atabaki said. "So a future growing Iranian influence in the region will depend on the country’s relationship with the U.S. If Iran is willing to secure a stable place for itself in the region, first it should resolve its problems with the U.S."

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle...ce58ebfe8.html

[nichols]

TEHRAN - Iran's supply of natural gas to Turkey was inexplicably slashed by 70% last Friday, in one of the coldest months of the year. On the same day, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul raised the tension between the two countries by calling for greater Iranian "transparency" over Tehran's nuclear program.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA24Ak02.html