Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.
Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.
http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799
kaur---you will notice on some video analysis work by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl that depicted a Russian SF recon unit inside the Ukraine several days before the actual crossing of Russian troops---they all wore white pieces of cloth on their uniforms---was also carried two months ago in three or four other videos---but supposedly from irregulars---begs the question below.
You are right it is the same markings as seen with the "little green men" initially in the Crimea when this all started.
question----If you look at the Navy SEAL video and analysis---he had been in the Ukraine---at least from his Russian social media page since Feb 2014. so when really did Russian start moving FSB/GRU and SF personnel into the Ukraine--apparently during the Maidan.
BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.
1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.
The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.
2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.
There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.
Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.
In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.
What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.
What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.
IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.
For those following Putin's comments--this Ukrainian writer sums up Putin's long term moves inside the Ukraine and it does not have anything to do with mistreated ethnic Russians or "New Russia".
But we all know too well that Putin needs the “LNR” and “DNR” only as a springboard for further destabilization of the situation and exclusion of the entire south and east from Ukraine. The Kremlin doesn’t need the heaps of Donbas–it needs the scientific and industrial potential of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, as well as the strategic territory in the south represented by Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts (in terms of support of Crimean livelihood and the connection to Transnistria, and taking control of the entire Ukrainian coast of the Azov and the Black Sea). This is a minimal program. Where the Moscow’s potentate [ambition] brings him next–is another question..
The question raised---"where does it bring Putin next" is valid and should be kept in the back of one's mind when Putin talks about the Ukraine.
An interesting article by an UK author who has been calling these Russian actions since 2007.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-e...ad-363081.html
Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about?
So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
AP--here is your problem--if you have actually been reading my comments you would notice that yes the West is trying to talk and I emphasize the term talk while Putin acts on his strategy ---for Putin actions speak far more than words--kind of his old KGB days.Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about?
So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?
Remember I in fact said he was coming across the border what about six months ago--so the West has been talking for what six months and still nothing.
So is he or is he not across the border and still what is the West doing "talking right"?
Let's see--nuclear threats towards the West, threats to actually take Kiev, let's see roughly 10K "defense contractors" on vacation and still counting, and oh yes threatening Kazakhstan-and what the West is still "talking right?
Is it not strange to you that the IS is not a strategic threat to say Des Moines Iowa but central Europe is not strategic to the US-and the Kurds get anti tank weapons and the IS has no tanks and yet the UA sees them daily--think about that ---does it make sense to you?
So what has the "talking" gotten the West as of yet AP?
Actually still nothing that I can see.
Or do we join him in his "altered state of reality"
Remember it was you who claimed he had reasons and we should understand those reasons--still think that?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2014 at 08:15 PM.
I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.
That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.
Last edited by BrentWilliams; 09-03-2014 at 12:33 AM.
BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.
Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".
Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".
Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.
The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...re-363171.html
AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.
BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.
Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?
Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl
Putin is all about actions not talk right now.
His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.
IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".
Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?
BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs …
pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY
What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 01:25 PM.
Now the Russian "altered state of reality" is taking on contours.
If one Googles' "Russian 2012 nuclear strategy" you will find in a number of Russian articles the mention of a first strike ability and going immediately to tactical nuclear weapons.
If you then Google other Russian military articles say since 2008 there is a repeated fear by Russian military planners of a conventional war and losing that conventional war---they still regard NATO to be far stronger than the Russian Army even if it takes 28 countries to decide something.
Which is probably a correct assessment of NATO combat abilities in a conventional environment--they view NATO forces to be better lead, professional and well equipped--especially the air forces.
Thus the constant talk that is repeated in their new nuclear strategy released in 2012 which calls for a tactical first strike ability.
So this Interfax press release might be designed to cause NATO to rethink especially in light of the coming NATO Russian decisions this week---but in the "altered state of reality" it has been there since 2012--so really nothing but hot air.
The problem I foresee for Russia with their nuclear statements from today and the implied threat of tactical nukes being used in the Ukraine, and their tactical exercised nuke strike on Poland and the Baltics--- will be the demand by the weaken NATO members for a new missile shield which will then panic Russia and that is their worst nightmare---meaning a true threat to eliminate their first strike abilities---but again provoked by Russian actions and threats not by the West---as it was never really on the NATO agenda until now.
Interfax from today 13:47
Russia's updated military doctrine should stipulate preemptive nuke strike - military official
This was being carried on the EuroMaidan site today concerning the open source analyzed Russian tank convoy--by the way the video was geo tagged as being in the Ukraine:
2014/09/02 • Featured, War in Donbas
The smoking gun: Russian column confirmed in Krasnodon
Russia has invaded Ukraine and now there is irrefutable proof. Today a Krasnodon local riding on trolleybus route Nr.1 connecting Krasnodon with Molodohvardiysk filmed a Russian mechanized column...
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...-in-krasnodon/
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 01:29 PM.
Article concerning a new Russian website for Russian MIAs, KIAs, and WIAs in the Ukraine. The important piece of info---actually created and uploaded in Russia not from outside bloggers.
You will notice a couple of individuals listed on the site with ties to the Russian SF and or were Russian SF trainers.
http://en.inforesist.org/a-website-f...ted-in-russia/
There is a constant stream of blogging reports and independent journalist bloggers since the 25th of august when the first Russian troops went into the Ukraine of high losses of manpower and high wounded numbers.
Reports drifted out today of the Russian Rostov military hospital being completely overfilled with wounded and in St. Petersburg there is also no more available hospital beds for the Ukrainian wounded.
KIA estimates range form 700 just on 25 Aug to now a total nearly 2,000.
There are confirmed reports that the Russian military has given their Russian commanders in the Ukraine orders to find open plots of land for burial of Russian soldiers in the Ukraine so the bodies do not start showing up in Russia.
There are unproven reports of Russian military field crematoriums being sent into the Ukraine.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...ive-to-russia/
Even if the numbers are lower than the reported numbers--it is a remarkable high number for a rag tag regular Army working with independent BNs fighting with less armor and artillery and no aircraft.
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