Mali mainly, 2012 coup, drugs & more

[KingJaja]

Dayuhan,

Thanks for your kind response.

I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

[Dayuhan]

I just need to point out that it is always the US government, US news media and US academics who fret the most about the US losing its competitive edge to the Chinese in Africa.

The US government, media, and academics do an unbelievable amount of fretting over an extraordinary number of things. Any given fret-set in isolation might seem large, but has to be evaluated against all the others. If you made a hierarchical ranking of all the things they fret over, I'd guess that losing out to the Chinese in Africa would be way down the list.

The average African is not that interested about the relative standing of the US with respect to the Chinese in Africa.

The average American wouldn't have the slightest idea what we're talking about.

Secondly, over promising and under delivering (or creating the impression that you can/will do more than you are actually willing/capable of doing) is never a good foreign policy. (E.g. Obama's speeches in Cairo and Accra, which in hindsight look a bit like a lot of hot air).

All political speeches are hot air... but it is true that politicians who give speeches outside the country should be more aware of the fact that there are those who haven't figured that out yet.

If the US kept its message as simple as you did, Africa would be a lot better off for it.

I don't know if Africa would be better off, but I suspect that the US would be. We will never know, because I'm never going to be the one defining the message!

[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts comments on the reported disunity amongst the Islamist rebels:

Well, it looks like more money and fighters has led to more conflict than unity in AQIM. Analysis suggesting more of any one terror group input (Weapons, money, fighters, etc) will lead directly to a stronger collective whole (AQIM) naively ignores the one thing that is most difficult to quantify and analyze: Human nature.....

Across al Qaeda’s global footprint, decentralization has led to there being more incentive for affiliates to compete than cooperate. With Bin Laden’s death, donors spread their funds more diffusely and local affiliate illicit revenue schemes must increase. Ultimately, this change leads to al Qaeda affiliates with waning allegiance to al Qaeda Central.

Link:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=840

Thinking about this I wonder how distant onlookers, even sympathisers, will react to such groups becoming more like robbers, than fighters. Distant feelings of legitimacy and possibly sympathy are nothing compared to the local reaction.

[davidbfpo]

Based on a Time report a month ago (Post 187) I noted:

Buses to the north are now packed, filled with refugees no longer willing to wait out the now quiet conflict far from home. Their departure has left refugee camps at a fraction of their original size, say local officials.

A month appears to be a long time if this report in The Guardian is to be believed:

Mass rape, amputations and killings – why families are fleeing terror in Mali; At refugee camps, reports are flooding in of horrific human rights abuses in a country once famous for its music and joyous lifestyle.

The tales recounted suggest a population subjugated by a regime well versed in appalling brutality. Allegations of war crimes include summary executions, mass rape, racism and the targeting of elders by child soldiers recruited by the extremists. Some allege that child soldiers are being forced to rape women.

Link:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...ali?CMP=twt_gu

Anyone able to comment on the social implications and possibility of 'child soldiers'?

[davidbfpo]

Once an apparent pillar of democracy in West Africa, Mali has drastically deteriorated in 2012, with a coup bringing down the elected government in March and a combination of armed groups taking over vast areas of the desert north soon thereafter. Those areas remain under the control of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar Dine, MUJAO and the MNLA, while a shaky interim government in Bamako seems to make little progress. Discussions are underway for the intervention of a regional force that will assist the Malian army in retaking the north, but there are many unanswered questions about the emerging plan. This panel will discuss the root causes of Mali's instability and strategies for addressing those causes that can contribute to long-term peace and stability.

Link:http://www.usip.org/events/crisis-in...es-and-options

[Commando Spirit]

Ansar Dine militants began attacking holy sites in the city on Saturday
Islamists in Mali have begun destroying remaining mausoleums in the historic city of Timbuktu, an Islamist leader and a tourism official said.

"Not a single mausoleum will remain in Timbuktu," Abou Dardar, a leader of the Islamist group Ansar Dine, told AFP news agency.

Islamists in control of northern Mali began earlier this year to pull down shrines that they consider idolatrous.

Tourist official Sane Chirfi said four mausoleums had been razed on Sunday.

One resident told AFP that the Islamists were destroying the shrines with pickaxes.

Timbuktu was a centre of Islamic learning from the 13th to the 17th centuries.

It is a UN World Heritage site with centuries-old shrines to Islamic saints that are revered by Sufi Muslims.

The Salafists of Ansar Dine condemn the veneration of saints.

"Allah doesn't like it," said Abou Dardar. "We are in the process of smashing all the hidden mausoleums in the area."

Islamists seized control of Timbuktu in April, after a coup left Mali's army in disarray.

The news that further monuments were being destroyed came one day after Islamists were reported to have cut the hands off two people.

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, another Islamist group operating in the area, warned that there would be further amputations, AFP reported.

Last Thursday the UN Security Council gave its backing for an African-led military operation to help Mali's government retake the north if no peaceful solution can be found in coming months.

A day later, Ansar Dine and the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group, said they were committed to finding a negotiated solution.

[davidbfpo]

I'd seen that UN approval was given for the ECOWAS intervention force, presumably for diplomatic reasons and maybe funding? What I'd missed that a French General is assigned as commander:

..the passage last week by the U.N. Security Council of a French-sponsored resolution authorizing military intervention in northern Mali by a 3,300-strong force of soldiers from the Economic Community of West African States. The soldiers are to be trained and commanded by French officers. A French general with experience in Africa and Bosnia, Francois Lecointre, has been named to command the mission.

As previously reported the EU will re-train the Malian military:

About 400 European Union soldiers have been assigned, beginning next month, to train a 3,000-strong Malian army force that would be capable of redeployment to restore government authority in the stretches of northern Mali that have fallen under the control of AQIM forces.

Link:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...ml?tid=wp_ipad

[Piranha]

A day later, Ansar Dine and the Azawad National Liberation Movement (MNLA), a Tuareg separatist group, said they were committed to finding a negotiated solution.

Ansar Dine as well? I missed that one. Frankly, I am a bit surprised to read that.