Zimbabwe: 2007 till Mugabe resigns

[jmm99]

See this Rand monograph, Operations Against Enemy Leaders by Stephen T. Hosmer (11 short pdf downloads at bottom to get entire monograph):

Operations targeted against senior enemy leaders have long been viewed as a potential means of shaping the policy and behavior of enemy states. As a result, the United States has launched a variety of overt and covert operations in efforts to attack enemy leaders directly, facilitate their overthrow by coup or rebellion, or secure their ouster through external invasion. This book examines a number of leadership attacks from World War II to the present to offer insights into the comparative efficacy of various forms of leadership attacks, their potential coercive and deterrent value, and the possible unintended consequences of their ill-considered use. The book concludes that direct attacks, coups, and rebellions have met with only limited success and, even when successful, have sometimes yielded counterproductive results. Moreover, neither direct attacks nor coups have been of significant coercive or deterrent value, although rebellions have at times provided useful negotiating leverage. By contrast, external invasions have proved to be more efficacious both in shaping the targeted countries’ policy and behavior and in exerting coercive effects. The book concludes by outlining the likely conditions under which future leadership attacks are likely to be sanctioned and by delineating the prerequisites of effective use of air power in such contexts.

Report is from March 2001. Events since have simply re-inforced its conclusion re: regime removal (but I'd say sans nation-building).

BTW: I'm not suggesting that the US get rid of Mugabe. Zimbabwe is outside of the US zone of force projection if I had my druthers.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

BTW: I'm not suggesting that the US get rid of Mugabe.

Why not? The US put him there... now after a little genocide and the near total destruction of the country they would be obligated to clean up the mess they caused... IMHO.

[jmm99]

Because Zimbabwe is outside the line I'd draw if I had my druthers. Africa's problems are to be solved by Africans (Black and White) - IMHO.

Obviously, I do not have the "druthers". Your arguments re: US guilt for real or alleged misdeeds or commitments may or may not influence those who do and who are much more global in their Worldviews - whether guilt-ridden liberals or conservatives. I'm neither.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

Because Zimbabwe is outside the line I'd draw if I had my druthers. Africa's problems are to be solved by Africans (Black and White) - IMHO.

Obviously, I do not have the "druthers". Your arguments re: US guilt for real or alleged misdeeds or commitments may or may not influence those who do and who are much more global in their Worldviews - whether guilt-ridden liberals or conservatives. I'm neither.

Regards

Mike

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.

But before we get too hung up on Zimbabwe spare a thought for Nicaragua. First Carter hands it to the Sandinistas then Reagan interfered via the Contras and now Nicaragua has returned to being yet another South American basket case. Nicaraguans can be forgiven for asking for the real America to please stand up.

[Ken White]

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.

But before we get too hung up on Zimbabwe spare a thought for Nicaragua. First Carter hands it to the Sandinistas then Reagan interfered via the Contras and now Nicaragua has returned to being yet another South American basket case. Nicaraguans can be forgiven for asking for the real America to please stand up.

The Nicaraguans aren't nearly as confused about it as you seem to be.

What you cite is the sometimes startling difference in foreign policies between US Administrations. The Nicaraguans, like most Central Americans, being neighbors and paying attention to that for over a century -- and with memory of US interventions and strange behavior of contrasting administrations in the 20s and 30s -- understand that. They may not like it but they know what it is.

The rest of the world seemingly does not, as you show...

[JMA]

The Nicaraguans aren't nearly as confused about it as you seem to be.

What you cite is the sometimes startling difference in foreign policies between US Administrations. The Nicaraguans, like most Central Americans, being neighbors and paying attention to that for over a century -- and with memory of US interventions and strange behavior of contrasting administrations in the 20s and 30s -- understand that. They may not like it but they know what it is.

The rest of the world seemingly does not, as you show...

Well put Ken.

This is exactly why (probably) half the US aid to Afghanistan is used to buy mansions in Dubai for the current government and its cronies as an insurance against the schizophrenic US foreign policy.

Afghan vice-president 'landed in Dubai with $52m in cash'

You reap what you sow.

[Ken White]

Or reap things others have sown...

This is exactly why (probably) half the US aid to Afghanistan is used to buy mansions in Dubai for the current government and its cronies as an insurance against the schizophrenic US foreign policy.

"Probably?" Good caveat, lot of wiggle room there...

For our Foreign Policy to be schizophrenic, we'd have to have one. We do not. Never have. Save one item -- to react to any threats and remove them. We do that -- one way or another...

[Stan]

Quite frankly very few people seriously expect the US to do anything about Zimbabwe. Carter/Vance/Young handed the country to Mugabe in 1980 and its been a wonderful democratic paradise every since.

This is probably not appropriate for me to say, but the years I have in that region have left me with a totally different view than most.

It's never been relevant to me "who" put the Mugabes and Mobutus into typical African-style power because I doubt all those American politicians intended for that Sierra to take place, and, we (those that came and taught them) certainly didn't teach them to rape, pillage and plunder along the way.

The only thing I have noticed is when the Africans finally take charge and get rid of their dictators do they inevitable prosper. I doubt and certainly don't expect any Western nation to jump in and remove Bob. Even if we did, he would be followed by another and yet another Bob.

Countries like Zimbabwe and Zaire were capable of feeding and taking care of their people for the next 100 years without importing much more than a cell phone Now we will once again be faced with wide-spread disease and famine, the NGOs will scarf up our money and dump it (there), and there will be some slight semblance of peace til the rice is once again gone.

I've seen some truly sad cases of political Sierra but I've only seen two clear cases where the people finally said they had "had enough".

Jeez, get off your Alpha and do something... You are already dying doing nothing while the rice bags arrive

[carl]

Bob, the LRA, Mai-Mai and group after "the gates of hell are open" group. TIA man, TIA; and I wish there was something we could do but I don't think there is.

I've seen some truly sad cases of political Sierra but I've only seen two clear cases where the people finally said they had "had enough".

Which two Stan?

[Stan]

Which two Stan?

Hey Carl,

Just my .02 cents, but South Africa and Rwanda.

I don't take into account trade and all that other Sierra that the UN finds significant, because we both know there's tons of stuff to export and steal.

I would have given the DRC a strong 5th, but seems to me they blew it and hired another dictator and left the FAZ once again in charge.

Gabon and Cote d'ivoire were among my favorites, but I think the French are holding those two locations together.

And your selections ?

Regards, Stan