South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Bill Moore]

What would the Chinese do to our economic system that wouldn't do as much damage to theirs?

A lot of the "China threat" articles seem disturbingly generic. It would be easier to discuss the threat in specific terms: what specifically are we afraid the Chinese will do, and how specifically would those actions affect us?

Dayuhan,

I'll address your specific question, admitted with limited expertise in economics and expand upon it a bit. First off the U.S. doesn't consider China an adversary, at least yet, but China's behavior is more than a little concerning and is in fact driving the rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific militarily (the rebalance is about much more than the military, but it is China's aggressive behavior that driving the demand for more U.S. forces in the Pacific).

The U.S. National Security Strategy list four enduring national interests, which I listed below. I believe the way China is currently behaving challenges all those interests.

1. The security of the United States, its citizens, and U.S. allies and partners;
2. A strong, innovative, and growing U.S. economy in an open international economic system that
promotes opportunity and prosperity;
3. Respect for universal values at home and around the world; and
4. An international order advanced by U.S. leadership that promotes peace, security, and opportunity
through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges.

1. China doesn't necessarily threaten the U.S., but it could with its nuclear weapons "if" we ever went to war. However, China has been threatening our allies (both Japan and the Philippines), and a number of partners in the region as they use their military power to assert their territorial claims. It is bigger than firing shots at Filipino fishing boats, harassing U.S. Navy vessels, locking it radar on a Japanese Coast Guard vessel, and cutting the cables of Vietnamese oil vessels (none of which you expect from a civilized nation who desires to live peacefully with its neighbors).

It is bigger in the respect that this behavior also challenges interests 2-4 above also. It is driving a resurgence in nationalism in the region, and in my view Asian nationalism can be on the same level of extremism as Al-Qaeda's warped view of the world. This threatens peace in the region that could definitely undermine our economic interests, and worse potentially drag us into a war defending our allies or potentially not getting in the conflict and losing our leadership role in the region. If that happened I suspect the consequences would be quie severe over time. If China was ever successful in denying us access to the region and over time marginalized our interaction with the world's largest economies in that part of the world (the economic power center) the results to our nation would be devastating.

China's military might isn't and won't be as powerful as the U.s.'s on a global scale, but regionally they'll develop some asymmetric advantages with the ASBMs which can keep U.S. ships out of the region, and in theory making hard for us to respond to regional contingency without substantial risk. This is a normal development historically between nations, technology advances and any country that desires to be regional or global power will seek military advantages over others. While not out of the norm, combined with their recent behavior it is reason for concern. No one would think twice if Singapore developed and fielded the same weapon systems. China can't make an argument they're for self-defense when they're challenging other nations in the region militarily.

The biggest threat to U.S. economic interests in the near term is the ongoing Cyberwar China is waging. They are stealing billions of dollars worth of intellectual property from the U.S.. This is a state sponsored transnational criminal activity that undermines the economies of other nations. It invalidates the argument that China is somehow superior in the education field, since it appears most of their advances are based on reverse engineering the great ideas from other nations where people have the freedom to pursue intellectual pursuits.

That gets to U.S. national interest number 3, respect for universal values. At the end of the day China is still communist, and while not currently practicing the extremes that Mao did, there is little doubt that Tibetans, Uyghers, and other minority groups in China enjoy anywhere close to the freedoms we do.

China can modify its behavior and pursue its ends peacefully, the fact that it doesn't appears to imply something to me that we aren't comfortable talking about.

[Ray]

Rather well summed up.

China should approach international issues with maturity and statesmanship.

[Dayuhan]

At the end of the day China is still communist, and while not currently practicing the extremes that Mao did, there is little doubt that Tibetans, Uyghers, and other minority groups in China enjoy anywhere close to the freedoms we do.

A Cherokee or a Najajo might have something to say about that. China expanded and treated its fringe minorities in pretty much the same way the US did, we just did it before adopting the "universal values" we recognized after our expansion was reasonably well settled.

Again, what's missing are specifics. What exactly are we afraid that the Chinese will do? More of what they're doing now, the pushing, shoving and harassment that stops short of actual violence? Restrict maritime traffic in the South China Sea? Invade or blockade Taiwan? Force Philippine or Vietnamese armed forces off islands they now occupy?

In each case, what would the likely impact be on us? That's important to determine a proportional response. What would we be willing to do to preempt or respond to each scenario?

These things need to be looked at in a specific sense - as in specifically, what do we fear - because only by looking at them specifically can we determine what might realistically be done to prevent what we fear and what we would realistically be willing to do to respond in a given scenario. Generic fear makes a very poor basis for planning, unless of course the goal is to get a budget increase.