Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies

[Jedburgh]

RAND reprint of a Brian Jackson article that originally appeared in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism back in 2001: Technology Acquisition by Terrorist Groups: Threat Assessment Informed by Lessons from Private Sector Technology Adoption

Because of the importance of technology to the operations of modern terrorist organizations, the factors which affect the technological sophistication of extreme organizations are of great interest. In this paper, the process through which terrorist groups seek out and deploy new technology is examined by bringing to bear the deep literature which exists on technology adoption by commercial organizations. A framework is described which delineates not only the factors that influence a group’s decision-making processes surrounding new technology but also the obstacles which stand in the way of the successful absorption and use of unfamiliar technologies by a terrorist organization. This framework, by taking a holistic view of the entire technology adoption process, sets out a methodology to both more reasonably predict the outcome of a group’s technology seeking efforts and to speculate about its future innovation efforts. Such a technology-focused viewpoint provides a route to more fully inform risk assessment especially with regard to the low probability-high consequence technologies which have served as the focus of much recent counter-terrorist deliberation. The lessons provided by the framework with respect to weapons of mass destruction terrorism and to novel counter-terrorist routes are discussed.

[JeffC]

RAND reprint of a Brian Jackson article that originally appeared in Studies in Conflict and Terrorism back in 2001: Technology Acquisition by Terrorist Groups: Threat Assessment Informed by Lessons from Private Sector Technology Adoption

I'm not sure how much value this report would still have today. Software development is done using completely different models. Hacks seem to be the best and safest way to disrupt our technical infrastructure. Web 2.0 applications, and social networks are used by terrorists for recruitment and training.

[selil]

I'm not sure how much value this report would still have today. Software development is done using completely different models. Hacks seem to be the best and safest way to disrupt our technical infrastructure. Web 2.0 applications, and social networks are used by terrorists for recruitment and training.

To disrupt infrastructure an all vector approach is best. Multiple threads and depths of attack will cause a likely cascading outage across vast areas. Coordination of such doesn't take much. Just the right target at the right time in the right way.

[Jedburgh]

I'm not sure how much value this report would still have today. Software development is done using completely different models. Hacks seem to be the best and safest way to disrupt our technical infrastructure. Web 2.0 applications, and social networks are used by terrorists for recruitment and training.

I didn't read this report as being something that is narrowly focused on infrastructure vulnerabilities or cyber-terrorism, and thus rapidly dated by the passage of time. I read it more as musings on organizational learning and innovation by terrorist organizations, with a broad application.

[Jedburgh]

....continuing the series:

Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles

Deciding how to invest homeland security resources wisely in the United States can often appear to be an intractable problem because the large, open American society seems to be so vulnerable to so many threats in every corner of the country. This monograph is intended to help bound the problem in order to aid policy and resource decisions about one type of potential threat to the homeland: cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Importantly, the methodology used can be applied to other modes of attack, and the insights gained from this methodology extend to other threats as well. The focus of the research is on a specific class of weapons, but those weapons are not assessed in isolation; rather, it considers class of weapons as one of many options open to a potential attacker and seeks to identify investment strategies that are effective against multiple threats.....

Contents

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter Two: UAVs and Cruise Missiles as Asymmetric Threats: How Do These Systems Compare with Alternative Attack Modes?

Chapter Three: What Adversary Operational Problems Can UAVs and Cruise Missiles Best Solve and How Do UAVs and Cruise Missiles Compare with Alternative Solutions?

Chapter Four: What Are the Terrorist Group Characteristics and Preferences Relevant to the Acquisition and Use of Technology?

Chapter Five: Considering Defensive Strategies and Options

Chapter Six: Conclusions