Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[davidbfpo]

The more likely version for me is that France and UK, which have both economic problems to pay for a not hollow military force, will outsource the nuclear components to the EU. The nuclaer arsenal is of very limited value within a conventional strategy and can be out-sourced without losing too many options.

Your overall assumption still is that Putin/Russia has tested NATO/EU and the occupation of Ukraine would undermine these, here, I completely disagree, you mix apples and oranges.

There is no chance either France or the UK 'will outsource the nuclear components to the EU' for a host of reasons, not least of which is politics. Some within the EU bureaucracy may see this as a future option for the Greater EU state, but then Brussels has some strange ideas.

Even the very limited Anglo-French nuclear cooperation took a long time to evolve and get agreement. 'Outsourcing' would take a very long time to reach agreement.

[Ulenspiegel]

There is no chance either France or the UK 'will outsource the nuclear components to the EU' for a host of reasons, not least of which is politics. Some within the EU bureaucracy may see this as a future option for the Greater EU state, but then Brussels has some strange ideas.

Even the very limited Anglo-French nuclear cooperation took a long time to evolve and get agreement. 'Outsourcing' would take a very long time to reach agreement.

While I expected this answers :-) I do not see how you provide any solution for the basic problem in France and UK: The combination of an ailing economy and the current political environment does not allow to maintain a full spectrum conventional force and to maintain at the same time a useful nuclear component.

If you have to choose the lesser of two evils, a EU (conventional) army/navy/airforce or a EU strategic nuclaer component, what would you choose?

[wm]

There is no chance either France or the UK 'will outsource the nuclear components to the EU' for a host of reasons, not least of which is politics. Some within the EU bureaucracy may see this as a future option for the Greater EU state, but then Brussels has some strange ideas.

Even the very limited Anglo-French nuclear cooperation took a long time to evolve and get agreement. 'Outsourcing' would take a very long time to reach agreement.

Maybe the other option: the EU member states outsourcing their protection to a combined UK/French nuclear umbrella, thereby replacing the umbrella provided by the US, is an option.

[JMA]

Maybe the other option: the EU member states outsourcing their protection to a combined UK/French nuclear umbrella, thereby replacing the umbrella provided by the US, is an option.

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

[wm]

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

I seem to remember reading about similar kinds of arguments being given on the impossibility of a European Union--that no European nation would be able to trust another, or enough of the others, after things like the 30 Years War, Wars of the Austrian and Spanish Successions, and the Napoleonic Wars, among other things

[kaur]

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/wo...s&emc=rss&_r=1

[JMA]

OK, I don't claim any knowledge of the Russian mentality. Maybe you can help.

How far with Putin go and how far will he retain Russian support... and what will it take to stop him and then reverse his gains?

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/wo...s&emc=rss&_r=1

[kaur]

JMA, Putin will march as far as opponents will let him go. At the present day his dream is this project. His last presidential campaign was built around this issue. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasia...Economic_Union

Without Ukraine this project is not so perfect. Half of Ukraine was drifting EU direction, second half Eurasian union direction. Western Ukraine to EU and Eastern part to Eurasian. Last November before EU Eastern partnership summit it was clear that Ukraine can't signe at the same time association agreement with EU and join Eurasian union. Putin made nice last minute offers to Yanukovich (gas price plus 15 billion loan), but it didn't work. Maidan started. Putin decided to act. Now we see results. As you see Moldova is next in this kind of bad situation EU vs Eurasian union.

The wierd thing is that Putin didn't mention once Eurasian union during his last q&a session, at the same time he spoke several times about plans to restore good relations with EU. He said same about US. He managed to hide his Eurasian union ambition and spoke about tactical level actions. At the same time he is enjoing super ranking at home. One survey said that people will not tolerate this kind of win if their wellfare will be hit. Biggest euphoria is in country side.