Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

[OUTLAW 09]

He has used a UW campaign. I agree with that. However, he has used it in a way that as been overt and dragged Europe into deeper economic sanctions that will have lasting harm on Russia. He is doing it in a way in which his objectives may not be attained and he has alienated the population of East Ukraine. He has put things on the table for the West, actual military aid, that I never thought would be.

This is for an objective he could have seized in a week and faced a few screams from the west?

BW---it is far deeper than UW--and by the way you did notice that the Russian soldiers are in fact defense contractors so therefore he can actually argue which he does "there are no Russian soldiers in the Ukraine"--notice no one asks the question well what about defense contractors---he would not answer it anyway as you will notice he does when the questions get to close to the reality.

By the way the use of defense contracting "companies" are part and parcel of his new UW strategy which was published for all to see and read in 2013.

This is an excellent article by the current Director of the Carnegie Center Moscow and goes to what he is calling the New Russian National Strategy going forward which is interesting if one matches it to the New Generation Warfare and the New Russian Nuclear Strategy from late 2012.

http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?i...ign=buffer#top

There is a paragraph that grabbed my attention like a red flag---Stalin once told a high level group of Soviet Communist Party members in 1939 after the German/Russian agreements---roughly the following---yes we will sign agreements and yes we will hold to them--BUT if it goes against us then we will ignore them.

Russia will also feel free to withdraw from international treaties and agreements if it concludes that they no longer serve its national interests. In particular, this may apply to the 1987 U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned both countries from having a whole class of missile systems, but left the rest of the world free to arm itself with them. Likewise, Russian participation in the European Court of Human Rights is in danger: Moscow considers the court to be too politicized. Neither decision has been taken yet, but warnings have been served. Note: right after the US pointed out the Russian INF violation they complained 1) the accusations should have been in private and not for the world to hear and 2) a top active duty Russian General stated the treaty does us no good---let's simply leave it.

Russia joined all these international organizations to in fact defend themselves and to use them for their own benefit but has since the Crimea they have seen that they can be used against them---ie the Yukos decision, the pending decision in Stockholm on Gazprom's Ukrainian gas price fixing and the lack of support from the WTO against the sanctions.

Read the paragraph---then the questions begs to be asked---what has changed inside Russia in 2014 that was not already there in 1939? Or is basically Russia just a continuation of the Soviet Union just under a new name?

[OUTLAW 09]

Interesting from NATO Commander---and still the US and others use the term "incursion":

According to NATO’s commanding General Philip Breedlove, Russia’s troops can seize southern and eastern Ukraine within three to five days


Lysenko in Kiev: "According to our data, there are no fewer than four (Russian) battalion-tactical groups in #Ukraine." 400 men in each.

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not think Putin is in an "altered state of reality". Some would say he has been smoking to much pot lately others would say he has begun to believe his own propaganda---which is far more dangerous than pot smoking.

BREAKING: "If I want, I will take Kiev in two weeks," Putin tells EU President Barroso in a phonecon.

http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/u...6054.bild.html

Couple that with his statements questioning the legality of Kazakhstan and the declaration of "New Russia" for southeastern Ukraine and now you have "an altered state of reality".

By the way Russian history book publishers announced last week in Moscow they are adding a chapter with maps on the history of "New Russia".

[BrentWilliams]

BW---it is far deeper than UW--and by the way you did notice that the Russian soldiers are in fact defense contractors so therefore he can actually argue which he does "there are no Russian soldiers in the Ukraine"--notice no one asks the question well what about defense contractors---he would not answer it anyway as you will notice he does when the questions get to close to the reality.

By the way the use of defense contracting "companies" are part and parcel of his new UW strategy which was published for all to see and read in 2013.

This is an excellent article by the current Director of the Carnegie Center Moscow and goes to what he is calling the New Russian National Strategy going forward which is interesting if one matches it to the New Generation Warfare and the New Russian Nuclear Strategy from late 2012.

http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?i...ign=buffer#top

There is a paragraph that grabbed my attention like a red flag---Stalin once told a high level group of Soviet Communist Party members in 1939 after the German/Russian agreements---roughly the following---yes we will sign agreements and yes we will hold to them--BUT if it goes against us then we will ignore them.

Russia will also feel free to withdraw from international treaties and agreements if it concludes that they no longer serve its national interests. In particular, this may apply to the 1987 U.S.-Soviet Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned both countries from having a whole class of missile systems, but left the rest of the world free to arm itself with them. Likewise, Russian participation in the European Court of Human Rights is in danger: Moscow considers the court to be too politicized. Neither decision has been taken yet, but warnings have been served. Note: right after the US pointed out the Russian INF violation they complained 1) the accusations should have been in private and not for the world to hear and 2) a top active duty Russian General stated the treaty does us no good---let's simply leave it.

Russia joined all these international organizations to in fact defend themselves and to use them for their own benefit but has since the Crimea they have seen that they can be used against them---ie the Yukos decision, the pending decision in Stockholm on Gazprom's Ukrainian gas price fixing and the lack of support from the WTO against the sanctions.

Read the paragraph---then the questions begs to be asked---what has changed inside Russia in 2014 that was not already there in 1939? Or is basically Russia just a continuation of the Soviet Union just under a new name?

What has he gained from a strategy of deniability that no one actually believes? What would have been the result of simply seizing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea when this started?

[OUTLAW 09]

What has he gained from a strategy of deniability that no one actually believes? What would have been the result of simply seizing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea when this started?

BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

Like water off a ducks back one might say.

Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.

[BrentWilliams]

BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

Like water off a ducks back one might say.

Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.

An invasion could have been just as easily been sold to that audience. Protecting Russian people from harm, etc. The Russian people have never not backed him on this and would have backed other options. He controls the message and could have crafted the message needed to sell an invasion to protect the Russian minorities in Ukraine.

[BrentWilliams]

I found this interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/wo...-say.html?_r=0

WASHINGTON — As Ukrainian leaders warned on Monday of “a great war” with Russia, NATO leaders meeting in Wales this week were expected to endorse their most concrete response yet to increased Russian military intervention in Ukraine: establishing a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, officials of the alliance said.

The new force of some 4,000 troops, capable of moving on 48 hours’ notice, will be supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments that are intended to make NATO’s commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.

We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.

[OUTLAW 09]

I found this interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/wo...-say.html?_r=0



We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.

BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.

[OUTLAW 09]

This appears to be another example of the current Russian "altered state of reality".

The country goes through a massive Maidan uprising in the freezing cold and getting 100s injured or killed just to define their own rule of law and good governance and head towards Europe as a goal.

Which did not set well with Russia who wanted to reestablish their sphere of influence and wanted the Ukraine in the EEC not in the EU---which then triggered the Russian UW/political war with the Ukraine and the resulting invasion when it appeared that they rag tag Ukrainian Army was in fact defeating the Russia mercenaries.

Now again in this Russian FM statement released via RIA one sees that if the Ukraine is driving still towards the EU and eventually NATO the Russian FM basically threatened more invasion and violence.

Changing one's country status is a population decision not a decision by Russia in another country.

MOSCOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s initiative to change its “non-bloc status” and join NATO undermines efforts in settling the Ukrainian crisis peacefully, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.

“There is one very interesting fact: that this initiative appeared right after the meeting in Minsk where agreements on the process of the Contact Group were trying to find a commonly acceptable decision on the current domestic crisis in Ukraine,” Lavrov said during a live televised joint press conference with Tunisian Foreign Minister Mongi Hamdi.

Lavrov said that the “peace party” in Kiev is trying to develop a negotiation-based and political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, whereas the “war party” is taking steps “targeted at undermining these efforts.”

“It’s quite unfortunate that such moods in strengthening the positions of the ‘war party’ are actively warmed up and urged on out of Washington and several European capitals, and more and more often out of Brussels and from the NATO Headquarters where the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Alliance with or without reason comes out with announcements that do not fall under his jurisdiction,” Lavrov said.

Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk introduced legislation to the country’s parliament to drop its “non-aligned bloc” status, renewing its path to becoming a member of NATO.

[OUTLAW 09]

It has been simply amazing these last six months in watching how one country and it's senior leader Putin and it's FM time after time after time completely reverse reality.

Thus my statement they are residing currently in an "altered state of reality" having believed their own propaganda.

Open source viedoes, photos, and journalist interviews --countless in number have repeated shown the Russian irregulars and mercenaries shelling their own villages, and towns, encircling their own villages and towns, shelling/killing civilians attempting to flee the fighting and indiscriminately killing, looting, raping, and torturing civilians and Ukrainain military personnel.

Not the Ukrainian Army -----and yet Putin and his FM continue to state "we had to step in to keep the Ukrainian Army for destroying cities, villages and towns by shelling and launching ballistic missiles/using illegal weapons ie WP and cluster munitions, and indiscriminately killing civilians"---civilians meaning "Russians"--notice they never mention Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.

When in the face of the overwhelming open source---both are outright lying.

It is the ability to see reality and yet claim to have "seen something else" hat in fact makes leaders extremely dangerous.

From today's Der Spiegel Online--in German--goes straight into this "altered state of reality".

Basically it is calling Putin a blatant lair.

So again the question to commenters---if a leader is a blatant lair then how can the West "trust" anything he says?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-989247.html

[BrentWilliams]

BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.

Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.

[kaur]

Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.

http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799

[OUTLAW 09]

Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.

BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

[Petkov]

Come on you all smart guys, answer me, why would you believe USA government is telling the truth about Russia when he has been lying for 1000s of years?


Come on, I dare you.

[Petkov]

23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.

[OUTLAW 09]

23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.

Petrov---I will give you an answer---did you as a Russian ever stop to think where all the gas/oil wealth went to---certainly you did not get the billions onto your bank account from your comments here.

Secondly--just take a look at the current Russian society--and tell me and others here there is not a Fascist/Neo Nazi Revival inside Russian.

Just how many Russian ultra nationalists/Neo Nazi/Fascist Russian "legal" groups are in fact fighting now against "other alleged Fascists " in the Ukraine

Answer the question.

Last time I countered---seven different groups---there are not that many Neo Nazi's left in Germany.

So before you rant and rave--answer the question just how is it that the former Soviet Union spins so many different Nazi groups up to fight?

Do you not think that Russia is in fact ultra nationalist with neo imperial dreams?

Read this article my friend---- YES FASCISM is alive and well in Russia.

Besides they are having a Russian approved Fascism Council meeting in the coming weeks at Yalta---answer the question comrade---why is that?

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...eturns-ukraine

[kaur]

Story about Russian airborne trooper, who played Ukrainian "Berkut" trooper at the time of Crimean referendum.

http://argumentua.com/tainoe-stanovi...go-referenduma

[OUTLAW 09]

Story about Russian airborne trooper, who played Ukrainian "Berkut" trooper at the time of Crimean referendum.

http://argumentua.com/tainoe-stanovi...go-referenduma

It appears from this link that this Russian soldier was in fact Russian SF, was in the Crimea in a Berkut uniform prior to changing into his Russian uniform---article indicates they have found with some ease three other Russian airborne types all wearing Berkut uniforms.

Begs the question---just how many so called Ukrainian Berkut in and around the Maidan were in fact Russian SF wearing Berkut uniforms and provoking the Maidan crowds with their aggressiveness and shooting of the demonstrators?

A large number of social media photos of this one Russian soldier.

http://en.inforesist.org/russian-par...-crimea-photo/