Posted by Backwards Observer
Absolutely not, this is simply strategic messaging to the countries that border the SCS. I don't think China anticipates a fight, nor wants one, but of course that is conjecture. What isn't conjecture, and you touched on it in a subsequent post, is that this behavior creates the risk of a tactical miscalculation which could lead to events getting out control. Instead of the strategic corporal, we're looking at strategic Capt's playing chess with their warships. Its a dangerous game.Bill Moore, how would you interpret this intentional strategy? A precursor to "Operation Choverlord"?
As far as the intentional strategy, you can find China's strategic aims with a little research, it is unclassified and available for the world to read, and claiming the SCS is a key part of their overall strategy. One way to enforce those claims are to send fishing boats out to challenge territorial claims of other nations in the region. There is a better than 50% chance these confrontations are intentional, and there have been several of them. Yes this is a change, and it isn't just about fishing. You may recall there have been several incidents where Chinese "fishing boats" have harassed U.S. Navy ships, so to assume this is just about fishing, or these fishing boats are operating independently from the government is simply naive. What is more interesting is the growing nationalism among some Chinese and their public demand calling upon their government to give the Philippines, Vietnam, etc. a lesson.
Like others have commented, this approach seems contrary to their interests, because one point Dayuhan made that I agree with (on this topic, he makes many good points throughout the forum) is that China's freedom to sail through the SCS isn't threatened, so why potentially risk a conflict by making such aggressive claims? My speculation based on reading their documents is this is part of a larger strategy to undermine the U.S. as a global power (especially regionally, but it has global implications), to gain greater economic and political influence regionally (supported by a strong military). If our national security and our economy are related, as many senior leaders state, then this is clearly in our interests.
If you buy the assumption that there are three levels of relations between states: competition (normal), conflict and war, we are still clearly in the competition relationship with China, but China and some of the SE Asian nations are pushing closer to the conflict realm. I actually think in all likelihood these disputes will be ultimately be settled peacefully, but I don't know who will win the competition. None the less the possibility remains that when they pursue these tactics the risk of miscalculation is always present. If there is a miscalculation will it be isolated, or will it spin out of control? The answer is no one knows.
Bookmarks