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Old 05-03-2017   #41
OUTLAW 09
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Playlist of videos relating to the April 2nd 2017 bombing of Maaret al Numan national hospital
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...gvDw66-1bYnGr#
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Old 05-03-2017   #42
Azor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
As long as the Trump WH and Trump himself is in total chaos there will be no US FP on just about anything.....

Trump called Obama weak on #SouthChinaSea patrols. 100 days in, he seems to have halted them entirely.

Fmr AG Yates warned WH Jan26 that Flynn could be compromised by Russia. Did Trump lie on Feb10 when asked about it?

Sally Yates to contradict White House about Flynn & Russia. She told WH on Jan 26; Feb 10 Trump said he knew nothing
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politi...y-contradict/#

Lies..bluffs and "Wag the Dog moments" are not FP....and Assad is still using chemicals...
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Old 05-03-2017   #43
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Azor...I had already seen the Lister comments via social media...BUT here is the interesting thing...outside of social media comments...US MSM and the Trump WH NSC basically ignored his comments...

AND neither Trump WH NSC nor CENTCOM nor US MSM is actively questioning the American support to and for a Communist inspired and led Kurdish PKK a US named terror group...
We both know that the MSM rarely gets war and international politics right, if ever.

By Lister on the Kurdish Question in Syria:

Quote:
The United States should use its significant diplomatic leverage with Turkey to push for consideration of a ceasefire with the PKK inside Turkey, which may help ease tensions with the YPG across the border in Syria. As part of a package deal with Turkey, the United States could offer to include a select portion of its anti-Assad forces – the majority of which have already been vetted either by the CIA or by CENTCOM – into a broader offensive on Raqqa. This would be a similar arrangement to that worked out for Mosul, where zones of responsibility were pre-arranged between rival or competing factions.
Yet in his recommendations, Lister calls for:

Quote:
...the formalization of a zone of stability under SDF influence in northeastern Syria.
Well, which is it?

Should the U.S. resolve the Turkish-Kurdish conflict first before advancing on Raqqa?

If FSA units are to be included in the SDF to dilute the YPG's influence, then should the U.S. resolve the FSA-Assad conflict first? Or after the Turkish-Kurdish one?

Lister has a very good grasp of the situation, but he is unable to proffer good recommendations because there are too many moving parts.

He makes the mistake of suggesting a level of U.S. involvement "that sits in-between" regime change and the status quo. As you may have noticed in South Vietnam, and which younger Americans have noticed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, there is no "in-between".

The U.S. had the ability to effectively deny all of these countries to their adversaries with little effort, but it could not establish strong and friendly states without making a total commitment. Note that the Marshall Plan was less expensive than the development costs for Afghanistan, adjusted for inflation.

Moreover, the "zones of calm" that Lister calls for, backed ostensibly by U.S. airpower, are unprecedented in that such a dynamic with internal and external warring parties has never occurred before:
  • In Iraq, Iraqi forces had already been decimated by the war with Iran (financially) and then the Gulf War, both of which involved major ground combat
  • In Bosnia, the Bosnian Serbs were already under pressure to negotiate, including by Yugoslavia
  • In Kosovo, the Serbs believed that a land invasion was imminent and were under pressure from Russia

What is wrong with the status quo, if supplies to the vetted FSA units are increased and efforts are made to reorganize the SDF to include more non-Kurds?

From a public relations perspective, Daesh will probably need to be defeated on the battlefield first before the U.S. can quietly restructure the situation. If Daesh is not a priority, there will be domestic confusion and anger.
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Old 05-03-2017   #44
OUTLAW 09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
We both know that the MSM rarely gets war and international politics right, if ever.

By Lister on the Kurdish Question in Syria:



Yet in his recommendations, Lister calls for:



Well, which is it?

Should the U.S. resolve the Turkish-Kurdish conflict first before advancing on Raqqa?

If FSA units are to be included in the SDF to dilute the YPG's influence, then should the U.S. resolve the FSA-Assad conflict first? Or after the Turkish-Kurdish one?

Lister has a very good grasp of the situation, but he is unable to proffer good recommendations because there are too many moving parts.

He makes the mistake of suggesting a level of U.S. involvement "that sits in-between" regime change and the status quo. As you may have noticed in South Vietnam, and which younger Americans have noticed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, there is no "in-between".

The U.S. had the ability to effectively deny all of these countries to their adversaries with little effort, but it could not establish strong and friendly states without making a total commitment. Note that the Marshall Plan was less expensive than the development costs for Afghanistan, adjusted for inflation.

Moreover, the "zones of calm" that Lister calls for, backed ostensibly by U.S. airpower, are unprecedented in that such a dynamic with internal and external warring parties has never occurred before:
  • In Iraq, Iraqi forces had already been decimated by the war with Iran (financially) and then the Gulf War, both of which involved major ground combat
  • In Bosnia, the Bosnian Serbs were already under pressure to negotiate, including by Yugoslavia
  • In Kosovo, the Serbs believed that a land invasion was imminent and were under pressure from Russia

What is wrong with the status quo, if supplies to the vetted FSA units are increased and efforts are made to reorganize the SDF to include more non-Kurds?

From a public relations perspective, Daesh will probably need to be defeated on the battlefield first before the U.S. can quietly restructure the situation. If Daesh is not a priority, there will be domestic confusion and anger.
And again here is what you simply are not getting...you can "defeat" IS on the ground...BUT again in Iraq I watched the US military claim they "defeated" AQI by 2008/2009...only to have them disperse and go into a very good form of guerrilla warfare working together with the other Sunni insurgent groups....and actually began beating up on Army units in well
carried out swarm attacks....

Which is what both Lister and Orton are pointing towards again happening in both Iraq right now and is coming in Syria...
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Old 05-03-2017   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
I will remain on my soap box as long as US FP is operating under the Trump Principle of "Wag the Dog".....which is neither a strategy or a FP and simply uses any action to deflect and or direct attention away from a lack of a strategy and or FP....on anything!

Weeks After Massive US Bomb, IS Still on Air in Afghanistan
by Voice of America

An article here in SWJ.....

Quote:
Almost three weeks after the United States dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State group continues to show battlefield resilience as well as run its FM radio channel in the area.
THIS Azor is exactly what I posted previously ..you simply cannot "defeat IS militarily on the ground".....they will simply fade as they did in Iraq back into guerrilla warfare....

Actually if one really does reread Mao and his writings on guerrilla warfare....IS is in a phase two actually possibly a full phase three and when pushed hard simply backs back down to a phase two and or phase one guerrilla war..if pushed harder.

AND here is the key in both Iraq and Syria...there will be a lot of disaffected Sunni's remembering the ethnically cleansing by Shia militias or sectarian genocide conducted by Shia's in general and West standing by doing nothing and they will then support quietly that new guerilla war...

Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-03-2017 at 05:37 PM.
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Old 05-03-2017   #46
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Usage of Soviet-produced 240-mm rocket-assisted cluster mortar shells (3-O-8 "Nerpa") continues in Eastern Ghouta
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Old 05-03-2017   #47
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Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
And again here is what you simply are not getting...you can "defeat" IS on the ground...BUT again in Iraq I watched the US military claim they "defeated" AQI by 2008/2009...
Please read my comments fully before replying. I specifically and explicitly referred to defeating Daesh “on the battlefield”. If you have read my past comments, you will see that I have consistently asserted that Sunni Arab supremacism cannot be defeated by other ethnic and sectarian groups nor without resolving Sunni Arab grievances. I have also asserted that only Sunni Arab egalitarians, such as elements of the Free Syrian Army and Iraq’s Golden Division, can defeat Sunni Arab supremacists such as Al Qaeda and Daesh.

However, there must be the perception of victory over Daesh before Americans will countenance efforts to deal with the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.

As a historical parallel, in 1944 Stalin delayed the Red Army’s drive towards Germany in order to conquer Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. He did not have to justify this deviation, or his vision beyond Germany’s defeat. Yet what Briton would have tolerated Churchill pondering conflict with the Soviet Union, or Operation Unthinkable?

Thus, we need a publicity stunt so that the real work can begin. Who better to deliver on that then the current president?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
I will remain on my soap box as long as US FP is operating under the Trump Principle of "Wag the Dog"...which is neither a strategy or a FP and simply uses any action to deflect and or direct attention away from a lack of a strategy and or FP...on anything!
Lister is pleased with the airstrike on Shayrat.

Regardless, millions of Americans now believe in a new lost cause: the “stolen” election of 2016. Prior to the campaign, I had considered the current president to be vain, vapid and venal. Now, I would say that his former opponent exhibits those qualities to a far worse degree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Almost three weeks after the United States dropped its most powerful non-nuclear bomb in Eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State group continues to show battlefield resilience as well as run its FM radio channel in the area.
And? One could question whether the MOAB is more powerful than the MOP. I didn’t realize that a single MOAB was supposed to defeat Daesh in Afghanistan. Why did Obama keep it in storage for so long, then?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Actually if one really does reread Mao and his writings on guerrilla warfare...IS is in a phase two actually possibly a full phase three and when pushed hard simply backs back down to a phase two and or phase one guerrilla war. If pushed harder.
Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?

Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
AND here is the key in both Iraq and Syria...there will be a lot of disaffected Sunni's remembering the ethnically cleansing by Shia militias or sectarian genocide conducted by Shia's in general and West standing by doing nothing and they will then support quietly that new guerrilla war...
Curious. I would imagine that they would remember the bloody hands of Iran and Russia, to say nothing of China watching with disinterest, while the West at least made some effort. The leading Sunni Arab state is a U.S. ally, whereas Iran and Russia are adversaries.
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Old 05-03-2017   #48
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Second Russian military death in Syria in as many days.
http://www.interfax.ru/world/561062?utm_source=topmain#
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Old 05-03-2017   #49
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Is it a surprise that the 2 least honest & reliable sources, Putin & Trump, would have 2 different versions of their phone call on Syria?
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Old 05-03-2017   #50
OUTLAW 09
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English translation of #Erdoğan's senior adviser's threats on #Chinese radio @criturk to hit U.S. forces in #Syria.
http://www.criturk.fm/cevik-cri-turk...rinda-olacak/#
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Old 05-03-2017   #51
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In recent weeks, #Assad (backed by #Russia) has pursued an escalatory campaign of bombing hospitals, IDP camps & civil defense in #Idlib.
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Old 05-04-2017   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azor View Post
Please read my comments fully before replying. I specifically and explicitly referred to defeating Daesh “on the battlefield”. If you have read my past comments, you will see that I have consistently asserted that Sunni Arab supremacism cannot be defeated by other ethnic and sectarian groups nor without resolving Sunni Arab grievances. I have also asserted that only Sunni Arab egalitarians, such as elements of the Free Syrian Army and Iraq’s Golden Division, can defeat Sunni Arab supremacists such as Al Qaeda and Daesh.

However, there must be the perception of victory over Daesh before Americans will countenance efforts to deal with the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.

As a historical parallel, in 1944 Stalin delayed the Red Army’s drive towards Germany in order to conquer Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. He did not have to justify this deviation, or his vision beyond Germany’s defeat. Yet what Briton would have tolerated Churchill pondering conflict with the Soviet Union, or Operation Unthinkable?

Thus, we need a publicity stunt so that the real work can begin. Who better to deliver on that then the current president?



Lister is pleased with the airstrike on Shayrat.

Regardless, millions of Americans now believe in a new lost cause: the “stolen” election of 2016. Prior to the campaign, I had considered the current president to be vain, vapid and venal. Now, I would say that his former opponent exhibits those qualities to a far worse degree.



And? One could question whether the MOAB is more powerful than the MOP. I didn’t realize that a single MOAB was supposed to defeat Daesh in Afghanistan. Why did Obama keep it in storage for so long, then?



Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?



Curious. I would imagine that they would remember the bloody hands of Iran and Russia, to say nothing of China watching with disinterest, while the West at least made some effort. The leading Sunni Arab state is a U.S. ally, whereas Iran and Russia are adversaries.
You really need to rethink this comment...sorry but a conventional war one can in fact "militarily end" but guerrilla warfare....can take decades BTW...ask the US Army about VN experiences...

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Isn’t guerrilla warfare and subversion preferable to conventional mobile warfare?
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Old 05-04-2017   #53
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Assad officially hands over Syrian army command / field troops/ to Iran, and he even signed it.
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File Type: jpg statement1.jpg (64.1 KB, 7 views)
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Old 05-04-2017   #54
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US military official suffers slip of the tongue and says PKK is part of the SDF

Quote:
...In response to a question regarding the Turkish attitude against the YPG during press briefing on Wednesday, Colonel John Dorrian, the spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition against Daesh, accidentally acknowledged that the PKK was part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

"But with regard to the PKK, they are a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the Syrian Arab Coalition is a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces as well. The forces that are isolating Raqqa are now largely made up of Syrian Arabs, but they are a part of the Syrian Democratic Forces," he said.
...
Ah, speaking truth is now called 'slip in the tongue' in Pentagon's jargon?

Good to know that.

Guess, this happened to the CENTCOM Because they are in a rush. Namely, the CIA seems to be active in Syria again:

Analysis: The Free Idlib Army’s Role in the U.S. Battle Against Al-Qaida in Syria

...and that's 'no good news' for any of generals currently trying to run the US foreign politics in the Middle East.
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Old 05-04-2017   #55
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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
Assad officially hands over Syrian army command / field troops/ to Iran, and he even signed it.
Actually, that's the page 3 of a document stating the following:

Page 1:

Syrian Arab Republic
General Command for the Army and Armed Forces
Organization & Admin Branch
Organization and Arming Division
No. 1455
Date: / /1438 AH
Corresponding to 4 April 2017 CE
Memorandum
Dear Lieutenant General [/field marshal]: the general commander for the army and armed forces, president of the republic [Bashar al-Assad]:
- Implementing the decision of the brigadier general, the deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, minister of defence, on the memorandum of the leadership of the popular army- operations and training division- no. 45 on date 19 January 2017 guaranteeing the formation of a committee headed by the organization and administration branch in order to organize the forces working with the Iranian side within the organization and propriety of the local defence units in the provinces and put forward suggestions to your excellence.

- The committee specified by admin order no. 562/67 date 11 February 2017 held a number of meetings and studied and discussed the situation from different angles, including organization, leadership, combat and material guarantee, rights of the martyrs, wounded and disappeared, sorting out the affairs of those commissioned who have avoided obligatory and reserve service and deserters, and the civilians working with the Iranian side. And it culminated in the following suggestions:

1. Organizing the Syrian personnel (military and civilian) who are fighting with the Iranian side within the local defence units in the provinces according to the following table.

2. Sorting out the affairs of the military personnel (deserters) and those commissioned who have avoided obligatory and reserve service, and transferring them, appointing them, and modifying the party of their summoning to the local defence units in the provinces and including those personnel who have sorted out their affairs and are working with the Iranian side within the local defence units according to the following table:

Page 2

3. Organizing recruitment contracts for the interest of the armed forces- the people's army, for a period of two years for the civilians working with the Iranian side for whosoever desires, regardless of the conditions of recruitment implemented in the armed forces (permanent matter no. 1 and its modifications/recruitment) and renewing it by agreement of the two sides according to the following table:

4. Commissioning an administration of the affairs of the officers by sorting out of the affairs of session 69 of active officers and those who are working with the Iranian side currently in Aleppo province, their number being 1650.

5. The leadership of the local defence units in the provinces that work with the Iranian side remain affiliated with the Iranian side while coordinating with the general command for the army and armed forces until the end of the crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic, or issuing of a new decision.

6. Combat and material guarantee in all its types for Syrian military personnel and civilians working with the Iranian side on the shoulder of the Iranian side after organizing them into the local defence units in the provinces in coordination with the relevant parties.

7. Guaranteeing the material rights for the martyrs, wounded, and disappeared who have been working with the Iranian side since the beginning of the events, placed on the shoulder of the Iranian side. As for the rest of the determined rights for the martyrs, wounded and disappeared according to the systems and laws as follows:

a) Military personnel and those commissioned who have avoided obligatory service after sorting out of their affairs in principle.

b) Civilians in the framework of the comprehensive solution.

8. Issuing organization instructions guaranteeing implementation instructions for military personnel and civilians working with the Iranian side after organizing them into the local defence units in the provinces.
Attached is a table of the combat equipment handed to the Iranian side from the popular army and that which is present with it.
Please review and decide.

Brigadier General Adnan Mahraz Abdo

Head of the organization and administration branch.

. Opinion of the major general, head of the general chief of staff for the army and armed forces.

I agree to the suggestions: 5 April 2017

. Opinion of the major general, deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, minister of defence.

I agree to the suggestions: 5 April 2017.

. Decision of the lieutenant general [/field marshal], general commander for the army and armed forces.

Agreed- 11 April 2017.

Page 3

24 April 2017

To: the national security office, the intelligence branch [military intelligence], general intelligence administration, air intelligence administration, political security branch, criminal security administration, migration and passports administration, military police:

. Implementing the decision of the general, the general commander for the army and armed forces on our memorandum no. 1455, dated 4 April 2017, and the decision of the major general, the deputy general commander, deputy head of the council of ministers, the minister of defence on our memorandum no. 1681, dated 21 April 2017:

- You are asked not to obstruct or detain personnel working with the Iranian side who are carrying temporary cards for the local defence forces as long as their affairs are being sorted out.

- Attached is a copy of our memorandum no. 1455 date 4 April 2017 and our memorandum no. 1681 dated 21 April 2017.

Major General Ali Abdullah Ayoub

Head of the General Chief of Staff and the Armed Forces.

With the mandate of:

Brigadier General Adnan Mahraz Abdo

Head of the branch of organization and administration.

****

In essence, this gives a 'carte blanche' to the IRGC to continue organizing Shi'a militias in Syria as it likes: these are to be considered 'SAA', and the IRGC's work is not to be obstructed.

Last edited by CrowBat; 05-04-2017 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 05-04-2017   #56
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...and here the source of that copy, and the story: Administrative Decisions on Local Defence Forces Personnel: Translation & Analysis.

Mind: the author of that article, has a giant problem understanding what he's got. And, sadly, that's meanwhile no exception in his work, but a rule.

Namely, the author - Aymen Jawad at-Tamimi, somebody who became quite 'famous' for works of this kind - is not only failing to understand and explain the paper he's got, he's also not aware of its importance.

1.) Tamimi can't put together a story and simply explain facts: when reading his work, I've all the time got a feeling he's circling around the actual topic like a cat around a mug of hot milk. The only exception from this rule was hit 'critique' of Guttman's recent article of the PKK.

2.) He also seems not to understand the simple brutality of the Assad regime. Or is he intentionally downplaying the importance of networks of patronage and crime...?

In this case he starts 'wondering loud':
Quote:
...As a result, there has been widespread evasion of compulsory and reserve service, along with desertion from the army ranks. Fear of arrest for these offences would also prevent many people from venturing too far beyond their hometown or area, on account of the risk of encountering a security checkpoint that might have their names on a wanted list.

Instead, militias may be seen as offering a better alternative, as the salaries are often higher than those of army conscripts.
...
Actually, the principle is simple: the regime pays next to nothing to the SAA; SAA has no other choice but to defect and is thus criminalized; there come the 'saviours' of some militia, offer amnesty; and the ex-SAA should not only be 'happy', but indeed is 'in debt' with 'merciful regime' that gave his life a new sense...

And now, with this document, the IRGC is offered a carte blanche in regards of related work. :roll:

3.) Tamimi has also got an immense problem with drawing simple conclusions about the NDF and the LDF. Surely enough, the Russians are trying to change the situation lately, but essentially, both of these are nothing else but an attempt to formalize all the sorts of militias and PMCs, with the LDF usually standing for different 'units' of Hezbollah/Syria.

4.) And, he's paying too much attention at the purported 'symbology': sure, it's nice to have some unit crest explained, but what some insignia stands for or should depict is one thing, while the actual nature and purpose of the unit in question is another. The fact the regime lets militias recruit and pay better means not the resulting unit is 'SAA', just for example.

Therefore, it is not - or it should not be - the least surprising the LDF 'exists beyond Aleppo' (like it is for Tamimi): in essence, the LDF might be wherever the regime decides to call one of IRGC's local surrogates that way - or whatever local gangs prefer to call themselves.

What a 'surprise' then: what the regime considers 'LDF of Mhrada' for example, is calling itself 'Mhrada NDF'.

Overall, the piece is informative in regards of existence of few of armed groups in question. But, Tamimi's narrative and failures to understand the nature of the regime, and the purpose of the NDF/LDF legend, is severely smudging the picture.

BTW, and to make sure, the IRGC is not the only one to get such permissions. The Russians are meanwhile neck-deep into repeating IRGC's example:

Quote:
A #Russia|n delegation was allegedly in #Suweida today & proposed the creation of a local militia. Pic via Suweida24. #Syria
-> Members would get $200 a month, some health care, and have their status regularized :!: (for those who missed service)...
Russians 'proposing the creation of a local militia' in Suweida is silly: the area already has some 5-6 own militias - all Druze. Actually, this is indicating the Russians are trying to recruit some of these to fight for them, i.e. for Assad.

Last edited by CrowBat; 05-04-2017 at 09:07 AM.
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Old 05-04-2017   #57
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CrowBat....my compliments on a rather good translation....did not notice it was page 3 but the significance is still massive and YOU wonder if CENTCOM/Trump and the SOF community "will get it".

BUT I seriously doubt it....

IMHO this clearly indicates that Syria is now fully under Iranian IRGC control and no longer a "so called sphere of influence zone" that Obama/Rhodes were pushing for in the end........

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Old 05-04-2017   #58
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Hama Battle: #Iran announced death of #IRGC Brigadier General Mahab Ali Farsi, veteran of Iran-Iraq war. Killed by Rebels 2 days ago.
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Old 05-04-2017   #59
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Here's the Kremlin transcript of Putin's press conference with Erdogan yesterday, in English.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54444#

Russia stated that they together with Iran and Turkey will setup four "safe zones" and be the guarantors of the agreement for the four zones..to be presented at the ongoing Astana talks....

What's new is that there's a 3-page memorandum circulating in Astana with a May 22 deadline for establishing the zones' exact borders.

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Old 05-04-2017   #60
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IF this is anywhere close to being accurate/confirmed the US (Trump), CENTCOM and US SOF are now involved in one hell of a total mess.....
PYD (PKK) signed an agreement to cooperate with the Regime and Russia for upcoming offensives in Aleppo and Idlib.

http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/...e-east/347692#

So Trump, CENTCOM and US SOF are in fact supporting Assad in genocide, ethnic cleansing, fighting together with sectarian Iraqi Shia militias and the Iranian IRGC along with support of a Communist terrorist group PKK....

Can it get any worse???

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