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Old 02-24-2006   #1
Jedburgh
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Default Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)

Moderator's Note

This thread until January 22nd 2015 was entitled 'Terrorism, CT and internal issues in Saudi Arabia', the title has been changed to reflect a wider remit and the new title is 'Saudi Arabia: seeking security (catch all)' (ends).


Today on BBC: Saudis 'foil oil facility attack'
Quote:
Saudi security forces have foiled an apparent suicide car bomb attack on a major oil production facility in the eastern town of Abqaiq. Guards opened fire on at least two cars carrying explosives as they tried to ram the gates. Two guards were killed...
By coincidence, the Jamestown Foundation just published this report today (which was actually in their pub Terrorism Monitor yesterday): Saudi Oil Facilities: Al-Qaeda's Next Target?
Quote:
Former CIA agent Robert Baer has considered the implications of terrorist attacks on Saudi oil facilities, writing, "At the least, a moderate-to-severe attack on Abqaiq would slow average production there from 6.8 million barrels a day to roughly a million barrels for the first two months post-attack, a loss equivalent to approximately one-third of America's current daily consumption of crude oil. Even as long as seven months after an attack, Abqaiq output would still be about 40 percent of pre-attack output, as much as four million barrels below normal—roughly equal to what all of the OPEC partners collectively took out of production during the devastating 1973 embargo" (see Robert Baer's Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold our Soul for Saudi Crude). An al-Qaeda assault on Abqaiq would have the added propaganda effect of killing Americans. Abqaiq is an oil-company town; in 2005, nearly half of its approximately 2,000 inhabitants were U.S. citizens.

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Old 02-24-2006   #2
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Default Good catch...

... on the timely Jamestown Foundation report.
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Old 02-28-2006   #3
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Default The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security

Follow-up report from CSIS: The Impact of the Abqaiq Attack on Saudi Energy Security
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It is too early to know the full details of what actually took place at the Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, but early reports indicate that an attempted attack was foiled by Saudi security forces on February 24, 2006. The news caused oil prices to jump more than $2 a barrel.

The reaction of the oil market—that is all too aware of geopolitical, security, and economic risks—is expected. The attack comes amidst continuing instability in Iraq, the uncertainty regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, and the ongoing violence and supply disruption in Nigeria.

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer and exporter. It holds 25% of the world’s proven oil reserves (261 billion barrels), produces 12.5% of the world’s oil production (9.0-9.5 million barrels a day), and exports 16% of world’s total exports (7.5 million barrels a day). Furthermore, the Kingdom has the largest surplus oil production capacity (approximately 1.1-1.8 million barrels a day.

The stability of the global oil market depends not only on the Kingdom’s capacity to meet shortages in oil supply, but also in its ability to reassure the market. In the past, Saudi Arabia has played the role of “swing producer” to meet shortages in supply. Now, the attention is focused on the Kingdom’s ability to meet global oil demand and protect its key oil facilities.

In the case of Abqaiq, even if some of the facilities were destroyed, Saudi Aramco has claimed that it has backup and redundant facilities to produce at near capacity. The same fears about Saudi energy security arose after the May 2004 attack in Yanbu. During that incident, the Saudi security forces were also able to suppress the attack. The terrorists were quickly killed and the facilities in Yanbu were not in danger. That, however, did not stop speculation about Saudi energy security.
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Old 05-19-2006   #4
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Default Pro Bombers

19 May Washington Times - Inside the Ring.

Quote:
... Border officials in Iraq report that few jihadists are crossing into Iraq from Syria to strap on a bomber's vest and kill innocent men, women and children. The reason: better border control and fewer Arab men willing to travel to Iraq to kill democracy.

But on the southwest border, Saudis continue to use the desert as a pathway to murder. One route takes them to Najaf and the north to Baghdad to meet up with henchmen of al Qaeda lieutenant Abu Musab Zarqawi.

We are told border guards are surprised at the education level of the Saudis. They include professionals — teachers, doctors, engineers — ready to wear a bomb and walk into a market or mosque before detonating it...
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Old 08-25-2007   #5
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The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 16 Aug 07:

Extremist Reeducation and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia
Quote:
For the past three years, the Saudi government has been quietly engaged in an ambitious strategy to combat violent Islamist extremist sympathies through an innovative prisoner reeducation and rehabilitation program. Following the May 2003 Riyadh compound bombings, the regime adopted a series of security measures to fight Islamist terrorism. In addition to the aggressive counter-terrorism steps taken by the government, Saudi officials have also sought to combat the support of extremist ideology in the kingdom through a series of lesser-known "soft" counter-terrorism measures aimed at combating the appeal of extremist takfiri beliefs. These measures have included a sophisticated hearts and minds campaign consisting of a combination of state-sponsored education programs, coordinated public relations and media efforts and the deployment of the government's considerable religious resources. It is from this background that the reeducation program has emerged. While only three years old, the program was initially kept a secret in order to encourage its success away from media attention. Thus far, it has generated some noteworthy results, and it is now discussed openly and frequently in the Saudi media. The program's structure, process and relative successes, however, are all but unknown in the United States....
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Old 11-28-2007   #6
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Saudis arrest 208 men in terror sweep: Arrests ‘pre-empted an imminent attack’ on oil installation, statement says. Associated Press, Nov. 28, 2007

Hit Abqaiq and/or Ras Tanura, during winter months to maximize effect on the far enemy in the West, and hit the near enemy -- Saudi state. Hit two birds with one stone? Or are they mutually exclusive in AQ thinking?
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Old 11-28-2007   #7
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Default Extra Oil Ordered

Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.
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Old 11-28-2007   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kehenry1 View Post
Well, I think it's interesting considering I just read that the navy had ordered up four fuel tankers for December as opposed to their usual two/mo. Which was presupposed by the writer to be in relationship to a potential offensive or some operation in the Gulf to intimidate the Iranians.

However, I wonder if they are simply preparing for a potential shortage based on such intelligence?

This was open sourced news report. I'll try to find the link.
It was posted and reposted in newsmedia and not a few blogs. Here's one link:

US Navy steps up fuel deliveries to Gulf forces, Reuters 23 Nov 07
Quote:
....One of the largest commercial tanker hires is on a time-charter basis, the length of time a ship is sought, stipulating a period of 90 days to carry a range of fuels between locations in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

The time charter, which begins in early December and allows for multiple journeys in Gulf waters, is to carry a minimum of 310,000 barrels of jet and marine fuel, some of it JP5.

“What’s most interesting is the time-charter in the Gulf. It’s a big ship and here we have a commitment for a lot of movement of fuels, backwards and forwards down to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman,” the Gulf source said.

“This confirms there is going to be a lot of activity, possibly a serious demonstration to Iran that the military means to protect the Hormuz Strait,” he said.

He pointed out that Saudi Arabia had already promised US forces long-term fuel supplies this year, known as term tenders.

In February, oil industry sources told Reuters Riyadh had raised the amount of jet fuel earmarked for the military from 1.5 million barrels last year to close to eight million in 2007.....
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Old 01-26-2008   #9
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The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 24 Jan 08:

Jailing Jihadis: Saudi Arabia’s Special Terrorist Prisons
Quote:
Saudi Arabia is nearing completion of new purpose-built prison facilities for its program of rehabilitation and counseling for Islamist militants. Under this program five new specialized prisons have been built in Riyadh, Qassim, Abha, Dammam, and Jiddah over the span of approximately nine months. These new facilities have been designed to facilitate the dialogue process while at the same time housing individuals assessed to be significant security risks. These five new prisons are each designed to hold up to 1,200 prisoners.

The decision to build specially-dedicated facilities in which to focus on the counseling program was based upon a number of considerations. First and foremost was the fact that the existing prison facilities were not designed to promote dialogue and it was determined that successful advancement of the rehabilitation program could best be done through new specially-designed facilities. Furthermore, these new facilities would make the classification and segregation of detainees easier. The classification of detainees into those more predisposed to dialogue, and then separation of them from other more militant prisoners, would encourage and facilitate the work of the Advisory Committee, the Ministry of the Interior body that runs the rehabilitation program.....
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Old 04-03-2008   #10
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TWQ, Spring 08: Al Qaeda's Third Front: Saudi Arabia
Quote:
The war in Saudi Arabia is being waged over the biggest stakes of all: control over Islam's holy cities and oil wealth. Yet, having withdrawn most of its forces from Saudi Arabia in August 2003 after al Qaeda began its war, the United States remains on the margins. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia is waging an aggressive counterattack. How has bin Laden implemented his vision thus far, and how effective has Saudi Arabia's counterterrorist campaign been in stopping him? Has the U.S. military withdrawal from Saudi Arabia had any effect on bin Laden's plan for Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East? What effect has the war had on Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, especially toward its U.S. alliance?
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Old 04-03-2008   #11
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Default Saudi Prisons again

Try: Saudi Arabia showcases its controversial programme to rehabilitate convicted jihadis through art; on this link http://www.frontlineclub.com/club_articles.php?id=319

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Old 07-29-2008   #12
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International Affairs, Jul 08: Islamist Violence and Regime Stability in Saudi Arabia
Quote:
....In this article I posit that Saudi Islamism is a heterogeneous phenomenon which needs to be broken down into smaller components, each to be analysed separately. One recent study identified three distinct Islamist currents in the Kingdom: rejectionism (or extreme pietism), represented by Juhayman al-Utaybi and the 1979 Mecca incident; reformism, which produced the so-called Sahwa movement of the early 1990s; and jihadism, associated with the Saudi fighters in foreign conflict zones. In the following, I will apply the social movement theory perspective specifically to the Saudi jihadist movement. I will trace the evolution of Saudi jihadism since the 1980s and try to explain why it ‘came home’ in 2003 and not before. The findings derive from analysis of a large collection of jihadist texts and videos, as well as extensive fieldwork conducted in Saudi Arabia between 2004 and 2007. After outlining the origin and characteristics of the Saudi jihadist movement, I will look at Al-Qaeda’s foothold in, and strategy towards, Saudi Arabia between 1996 and 2001. Finally I will explain why the QAP campaign was launched and why it eventually failed.....
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Old 10-24-2008   #13
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Default Saudi, the carrot and the stick ...

Today, the stick as the Kingdom gets down to trying its backlog of AQ detainees.

Quote:
Yahoo News
Saudi Arabia indicts 991 suspected Al Qaeda militants
By Caryle Murphy – Wed Oct 22, 4:00 am ET
....
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – Saudi Arabia has begun the judicial process for putting on trial nearly 1,000 suspected Al Qaeda militants accused of terrorist-related crimes dating back to 2003, the Saudi Interior Minister announced.

"We have started to bring before the judiciary 991 people implicated in various incidents," Interior Minister Prince Naif bin Abdul Aziz told the Saudi Press News Agency late Monday. "Each case will be examined in stages."

This is the first time the government has disclosed the number of defendants accused in connection with the wave of terrorist violence that hit the nation.
......
Last month, Prince Naif told a group of visitors that the suspects "all will be transferred to the judiciary to give its verdict on them in accordance with what God has ordained to prevent sedition.... We don't punish anybody except on the basis of a court verdict," local papers reported. .....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081022/wl_csm/otrials
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Old 11-10-2008   #14
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With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.
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Old 11-11-2008   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
With nearly 50% of foreign fighters going to Iraq being Saudi citizens, and of course 3/4 of the 9/11 attackers, there is clearly a deep-seated disconnect between the people of Saudi Arabia and there Government. There is equally clearly a blame placed upon the United States for that particular situation.

No number of new prisons or re-education programs are likely to resolve this fundamental problem. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is arguably the Decisive Point for what we call the GWOT. This is not to adocate any type of military operation there, but certainly to suggest that this needs to be at the top of the new President's list for governments that he needs to have a serious heart to heart with. Until we stop supporting this government, we can expect to a target of frustrated young Saudi men who recognize that step one to a successful insurgency at home, is to break the support to that government from abroad. Until the Saudi government implements serious reforms to better serve its populace, it can expect to be the target of those same young men.
Here, you pick a "wicked problem". Continue support the status quo and risk the almost certain eventual pot boiling over of extremism. Stop supporting, or even attack the status quo, and almost certainly guarantee a new Iran for Wahhabism.

You'd almost certainly have to engage some pretty radical folks to keep a lid on, with the accompanying danger of supporting folks who will end up attacking you anyway.
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Old 11-12-2008   #16
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Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.
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Old 11-13-2008   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
Absolutely this is complex business. Clearly the Status Quo is a policy that became obsolete with the end of the Cold War that gave birth to it. We need a new, post Cold War policy that helps the populaces of the middle east and their governments evolve. The baggage of our Cold War engagement, and European engagement prior to that; along with the incredible complexity of a Muslim religion that due to Globalization is facing the same type of reformist pressures that threw Christianity and Europe into 250 years of violence and upheaval (1450-1700), it is a mine field.

We need to extricate ourselves from being overly engaged directly, and get into more of a mediator role to help guide what could be an incredibly explosive transition. It will call for brand new policies, new thinking, and a major suppressant of our urge to CONTROL the process, and instead simply guide it so that our own national interests to not get trampled in the chaos.
The key issue is control. I sincerely doubt it is possible for our polity, or military decision-makers to NOT dominate and attempt to control anything within their purview.

So, the question is, schto delyat? What do we do, going forward, in the imperfect nature of our system?
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Old 12-09-2010   #18
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Default Wikileaks adds more embarrassment: About hearts & minds in Saudi Arabia

WikiLeaks cables: Jihad? Sorry, I don't want to miss Desperate Housewives


The leak is incredibly embarrassing to the government, but that embarrassment looks largely well-deserved because the government is overrated.

Last edited by Fuchs; 12-09-2010 at 04:49 PM.
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Old 01-10-2012   #19
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Default An update on slow justice

Hat tip to LWOT:
Quote:
Saudi Arabia on January 8 began the trial of 16 suspected members of al-Qaeda accused of killing a policeman, plotting to attack government officials and military weapons facilities, smuggling weapons and training militants to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan (Reuters). The suspects are just a few of several thousand arrested in the Kingdom's clampdown on militancy between 2003 and 2006, of whom most have already faced trial according to the Saudi government, though human rights groups disagree and have said the government continues to hold thousands of political prisoners under the pretense of militancy.
Link to Reuters report:http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80708W20120108

Link to LWOT briefing, KSA is just one item:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...nse_in_florida
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Old 01-10-2012   #20
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Default Moderator at work

Today I have renamed this thread, it was 'Failed Attack in Saudi Arabia' and after that attack had moved along to other internal issues of terrorism.

There is a parallel thread 'US policy with an ally like the Saudis...', it appears not to cover acts of terrorism and the Saudi response. It is at:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2119
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