I think we were told for both Afghanistan and Iraq that "the next three months", "the next six months" or "this year" will be decisive in case of both Iraq and Afghanistan wars repeatedly.

Considering the possibility of ever new opponent groups in both theaters, it looks to me as if the only really decisive thing to expect would be a withdrawal.

Btw, I heard about non-Taleban insurgents becoming relevant in Eastern Afghanistan. Who is that?