I've long argued that Putin is far more likely to attack Belarus or Kazakhstan than the Baltics, as the former two are:

  • Not protected by any major and/or nuclear-armed powers
  • Hold more "resources" for Russia than the Baltics (i.e. human and commodity)
  • Regarded as much part of Russia historic "buffer zone", "privileged sphere of interest" or "near abroad" as Ukraine
  • Exhibiting tensions towards the "Russian World" i.e. distancing themselves from Moscow and Russian language and culture


Here is the latest from Jamestown: Minsk Fears Moscow May Organize Hybrid War and Color Revolution in Belarus

"Many governments in the post-Soviet space fear they may be threatened by a color revolution; others are worried that they will become victims of a hybrid war. But Belarus is worried about both at the same time, something that makes it difficult for Minsk to cope because the challenges posed by the one and those posed by the other are quite different. Moreover, the policies that might be most useful to block one could, in some circumstances, have the effect of making the latter more likely. This is especially true because one outside power—Vladimir Putin’s Russia—is interested in making use of both in pursuit of Moscow’s ends..."