Mumbai Attacks and their impact

**Ken White** · 03-30-2011

Originally Posted by tequila

Personally I don't think the AR in a car is a good idea or necessary...

The Northeastern corridor is unusual...

Pistols only for the Police work, light and high speed rail work, single payer medical care can work.

Having also lived in suburbs of other large cities in the South, Midwest and on the West Coast, it's a very different world. Small towns are yet more different -- for all those things. Huge nation, one size won't fit all.

Even for Cops, METT-TC -- and training -- make a difference.

**davidbfpo** · 05-06-2011

A commentary by SWC member Zenpundit on his blog site:http://zenpundit.com/?p=3942

I don't suppose the Federal Prosecutor thought the trial would be in a vacuum, but the lack of coverage and an official stance is puzzling.

**omarali50** · 05-06-2011

Why puzzling?
Those are (or were) thought to be "India-specific terrorists" and if the price for cooperation in Afghanistan is a few more dead in India, would the USG refuse such a deal? I am just curious to know what people think (and what you think)? As always, I have no way of knowing for sure, but from the way things have proceeded in the last 25 years, it seems to me that the USG would be able to live with such terrorism provided it was closely monitored and US citizens were not primary targets and provided there is more cooperation in Afghanistan. Or do you think I am too cynical?

**davidbfpo** · 05-06-2011

That comment followed reading the Zenpundit and linked articles regarding the lack of US press coverage and the US official stance on the Chicago trial is puzzling. My apologies for being imprecise.

More another time.

**Ray** · 05-07-2011

I think the US has SWAT teams.

They could take on where the police left in case of a Mumbai style attack.

**carl** · 05-07-2011

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?

**omarali50** · 05-07-2011

well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

**carl** · 05-07-2011

This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

**Ray** · 05-08-2011

Originally Posted by carl

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?

Originally Posted by omarali50

well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

If a second Mumbai happens, the the Govt of India will have no options. It will have to take a plunge. The Indian public will not tolerate anything otherwise since enough of patience has been displayed.

Sanctions are passé.

Setting off bombs in public places would also not do since the terrorists are at this game, seething with rage and impotence that Pakistan is owned. The same rage has visited the common Pakistani. If one visits the websites of Pakistan, one would realise the rage at the humiliation Pakistan is experiencing rightly over the manner in which the Pak Armed Forces machismo, as believed by the common Pakistanis, has been totally shattered. They can't reconcile with the fact that three helicopters flew from Bagram without detection by their radars, knocked out Osama's lair and then exfiltrated even as the PAF F16s scrambled and were on the hunt!!

There is however a silver lining to the US raid. Pak Army and the ISI will be now careful not to overplay their cards and instead will keep the terrorist, their strategic assets, under leash. Of course, they will jigger the Kashmir terrorism a couple of notch higher, but would not allow them to have forays into hinterland India since they too know the consequences and the US will not be there to bail them out as they have always done so far.

China, in a scenario of Indo Pak confrontation, the Pak Army knows will make the usual pious noises since they (China) are more concerned about keeping up with the US and will not squander their new gained wealth in fruitless wars, the consequence of which is not known and knowing that India is no longer the pushover of 1962, having tasted the Indian wrath at Chola:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chola_incident, Natu La: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathu_La, and Sumdorong Chu incident: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_Sino-Indian_skirmish.

Originally Posted by carl

This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

India will capitalise on not losing strategic surprise since that is the essence of ensuring some effect in any confrontation with Pakistan.

**davidbfpo** · 06-07-2011

CLS:

ProPublica, which has exhaustively covered the trial and investigated links between Pakistan’s ISI and militant groups, has compiled a great primer on the significance of the trial and the major players.

Link:http://www.propublica.org/article/us...or-connections

**davidbfpo** · 06-10-2011

A fuller title 'Chicago Terrorism Trial: What We Learned, and Didn’t, About Pakistan’s Terror Connections' and a quick summary:http://www.propublica.org/article/ch...rned-and-didnt

The role of the informant remains murky and other parties confidence in how the USA managed him and what was gained is hardly secure.

**omarali50** · 06-30-2011

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-the-deal.html

**AdamG** · 07-03-2011

Pakistan's test launch last month of a new short-range ballistic missile, when added to its quickly growing arsenal of lower-power nuclear weapons, indicates the South Asian country is seriously readying to use its nuclear deterrent should war break out again with India, the Times of India reported on Sunday.

Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen said the nuclear-capable Hatf 9 missile appears to be designed to attack an invading force of Indian soldiers.

"While that wouldn't threaten Indian survival in itself, it would of course mean crossing the nuclear threshold early in a conflict, which is one of the particular concerns of a short-range nuclear weapon," Kristensen said.

The missile's 37-mile flight range means it could not strike any major Indian population center. However, the weapon could undermine the Indian military's unconfirmed "Cold Start" doctrine, which focuses on the rapid deployment of armed forces into Pakistan for a targeted strike following a terrorist assault on the scale of the 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

http://ht.ly/1d0Mxv

**Ray** · 07-04-2011

It is Pakistan's answer to India's Cold Start.

To use a tac nuke in the face of the advance.

**motorfirebox** · 07-04-2011

A little late, and I'm not sure this hasn't been discussed elsewhere, but the recent attack in Kabul was obviously influenced by the Mumbai attacks. The Kabul incident met with significantly less success; it's hard to keep that particular sort of ball rolling without the element in surprise, and I don't imagine that at this point anyone in Kabul remains surprised for long.

**omarali50** · 07-04-2011

The element of surprise is, of course, an essential part of the success of each new terrorist method. ..and I expect that properly trained western armies and police forces learn from the past, and so may the Afghans, but I would add one caveat: in a largely incompetent state like India, dont expect miracles next time either. Another Mumbai attack would probably be terminated more quickly, but mass casualties would still occur and the local police will be suitably surprised again..and again.

**motorfirebox** · 07-04-2011

Part of that is simple frequency. Guys popping out of the woodwork to kill civilians at random is a rare event in Mumbai; it's not common even in the areas of hottest Naxalite conflict. In Kabul, it's, y'know, Tuesday.

**davidbfpo** · 07-16-2011

An IISS expert was interviewed on the latest Mumbai attacks on BBC Radio 4 and the Q&A is here:http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-voices/?blogpost=213 *Broken link and IISS archive search failed*.

One wonders if the local group the Indian Mujahedeen decided it was time to re-appear, five years after their devasting attack on Mumbai trains, having been up-staged by the LeT attack?

My comment is contested by a RUSI analyst, partly as the Indian Mujahedeen are not an independent group due to their links to Let, ISI and others. A longer commentary, with an interesting graph on attacks in India, with Mumbai the focus:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...4E1EAAC92F3AD/

**blueblood** · 09-02-2011

Originally Posted by omarali50

The element of surprise is, of course, an essential part of the success of each new terrorist method. ..and I expect that properly trained western armies and police forces learn from the past, and so may the Afghans, but I would add one caveat: in a largely incompetent state like India, dont expect miracles next time either. Another Mumbai attack would probably be terminated more quickly, but mass casualties would still occur and the local police will be suitably surprised again..and again.

Incompetent no, overstretched yes. Ratio of law enforcement per capita is very low in India. No wonders promised but looking at the changes post 26/11, India is far better prepared for such incidents. But then again that is hardly stopping the Taliban in Pakistan which has much better police structure nor the Rangers are able to curb the political violence in Karachi. At the end of the day it all boils down to willpower of the ruling government, both Center and State and in case of Mumbai they are same and are as good as #### on a bull.

**omarali50** · 11-23-2011

Frontline continues to dig, sometimes to the embarrassment of the US government : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/david-headley/

As they said about Abbotabad: incompetent? or complicit?: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...tacks-suspect/