'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

I don't think it's possible to cite evidence for something that hasn't happened yet. The expectation is based in part on many years of observing the overseas Chinese communities and Chinese projects in Southeast Asia, in part on many years of observing large development projects (even those with the best of intentions) and in part on the basic nature of human and international relations. Surely nobody believes that the Chinese don't intend to take more out than they put in...

Chinese interaction with Africa didn't start yesterday. The Tanzam railway is an example, the Chinese are re-evaluating the railway with a view to upgrading it and making it run profitable.

Ask any Tanzanian about the legacy of the Tanzam railway.

Secondly, the West has a much worse legacy of abandoned projects than the Chinese. The entire landscape of Africa is littered with abandoned "World Bank Assisted" projects.

The Chinese on the other hand, have a much better record of revisiting their abandoned projects like rice projects in Sierra Leone, the Tanzam railway and cotton projects in Mali.

The Chinese experience in Africa is not a mirror image of the South East Asian experience.

We understand that Westerners don't like the Chinese and I still maintain that a lot of Western commentary on Chinese activities in Africa is less informed by facts but a visceral dislike of the Chinese.

[KingJaja]

Interesting read:

This followed the recent arrest of key members of the sect and appointment of a new police chief in Nigeria.

Nigerian agents appear to have made a major discovery in their investigations into the sources of funding of the Boko Haram Islamic sect. According to the Nigerian Tribune newspaper, the State Security Service (SSS) and its local and international counterparts have now traced the group's sources of funding to some Al-Qaeda-linked organisations in the Middle East.

Recently arrested key figures of the group reportedly told security agents that while the organisation initially relied on donations from members, its links with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, opened it up to more funding from groups in Saudi Arabia and the UK. Nigerian Tribune said sources in Boko Haram confirmed that Al-Muntada Trust Fund, with headquarters in the United Kingdom, had extended some financial assistance to the sect.

Other sources of Boko Haram funding reportedly uncovered in the investigations are the Islamic World Society with headquarters in Saudi Arabia and some prominent local businessmen, including one who donated a bus and loud speakers and an in-law to the sect's founder, Mohamed Yusuf. A businessman from Bauchi State is said to have developed links with Al-Qaeda in Somalia, having received training from Abu Umar Al-Wadud, its leader. The suspected financer later fled to Somalia in 2009 following the onslaught on members by security forces.

Meanwhile, the team investigating the January 15 escape of re-arrested Boko Haram kingpin, Kabir Sokoto, has concluded plans to bring him before detained Commissioner of Police, Zakari Biu, Punch newspaper said. The meeting between the two, a security source told Punch, would enable the investigators to verify Biu's claims on how Sokoto escaped from police custody. Sokoto was re-arrested on February 10, 2012 in Mitum-Biu, Taraba State in the northeastern part of the country. Punch learnt that the ongoing interrogation of Sokoto and the sect's spokesman, Abu Qaqa, was also aimed at unmasking other leaders of the sect and its accomplices in security circles.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202141514.html

[KingJaja]

Do you guys think these people are funding Boko Haram?

Website - http://www.almuntadatrust.org/

[KingJaja]

Hey Jaja,
Yeah, that's the way it was reported. One bomb suit for over 50 people of varying sizes/weights (we have 12 suits for every 20 people - all donated). The heavy bomb suits the Nigerian police use would have saved him from twice that explosive force.

They also have in their inventory water cannons (disruptor), which, he could have employed for approximately $1.30 per round (basically an electric firing 12 gauge shotgun shell) and disintegrated the IED from as far as 300 meters without a high order detonation.

We're all victims of too many Hollywood movies, but most of us know the difference.

True, the guy didn't have protective clothing.

[Stan]

Hey Jaja,
Great sources ! I wish I could share where and what I have access to, but, not permitted for very good reasons.

What bothers me most is in fact the picture from Thailand. Although in a very expensive Med-Eng bomb suit and helmet ($23 - 25 grand without the air conditioner), the public or press is within 150 meters (just guessing). And, no police tape to cordon off the area. The bomb tech will live, but nobody else

What's with question #2 at the bottom regarding stolen security budgets ?

[Chowing]

What exactly does the US stand for? This important question is going to be asked a lot more often as the diplomatic space becomes more competitive and a new generation of better educated, better informed young Africans assume positions of authority (hopefully, I intend to be part of that group ).

The US has on the one hand a very activist foreign policy, full of sound and fury. On the other hand, it has no problem doing deals with the worst of the worst of dictators. Simply put, the US over promises but under-delivers.

No one doubts that Americans are a better deal than the Chinese, but with the Chinese you know where you stand. They don't promise to bring Heaven to Earth. They don't insist on being beacons of light. We all know they bribe etc.

In the minds of many Africans, the USG is full of hypocrites, people hate brutes but they hate hypocrites even more.

I believe that a lot of problem is that there are good intentions, and they speak those good intentions, yet bringing about action on those intentions is not easy matter in the USA. There are so many hoops to jump through before action can be taken.

I agree that there will be a new generation of more educated and internationally savvy African leaders coming on the scene. Yet, cross cultural communication is difficult, and most USA pronouncements are for local (USA) consumption.

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.

[KingJaja]

What's with question #2 at the bottom regarding stolen security budgets ?

At least 20% of this years budget is devoted to security. With that kind of expenditure, more money should have been devoted to bomb disposal units.

[KingJaja]

I agree that there will be a new generation of more educated and internationally savvy African leaders coming on the scene. Yet, cross cultural communication is difficult, and most USA pronouncements are for local (USA) consumption.

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.

True, Iraq War discredited Bush and America, but Bush is fondly remembered for his commitment to funding AIDS programmes.

With Obama the rhetoric is always better than the policy. Obama hasn't really brought anything new to the relationship. The visuals are quite compelling, but that's about it.

Africa really needs American help with funding infrastructure and a more Africa-friendly agricultural policy. Since this isn't forthcoming, the Chinese and now the Indians are taking up the slack and rising in prominence.

For example, the Boko Haram crises is many things, but it is a fallout of mass unemployment. It is instructive to note that the coordinating minister for the economy went on a trip to China to seek advice on how to initiate a massive public works scheme..

[Ken White]

I agree also with your statement of African perception of the US goven. It has changed since the Kennedy era when the US was respected... the second Bush presidency brought on much of the tarnish. IMHO, Obama has changed some of that.

As one who spent a lot of time overseas before, during and after the Kennedy era, your perceptions of the amount of nominal respect or liking differ markedly from mine.

King JajJa's comment re: US hypocrisy I first heard in China in 1947 from several non-US persons, not all Chinese and including some supposed 'friends and allies.' Over the years, all around the globe, I have heard the US denounced for all sorts of things, real and imagined. IMO, the absolute low point was during the mid stages of Viet Nam -- the second Bush era didn't come close to that.

With respect to dislike of the US, that Bush 2 era was in fact continuation of the attitudes engendered by the Clinton, Rubin and Summers establishment of economic hegemony around the world and his proclivity for foreign adventurism added to that. Clinton bombed four nations with virtually no provocation or rationale and he sent Troops to three. Bush attacked only two, both with provocation -- Iraq in part due to the failure of his four predecessor's failures to properly respond to attacks and probes emanating from the Middle East for over 20 years.

We do a lot to deserve disapproval in the world, no question. We also do a lot to earn approbation. Most other nations are smaller and suffer from our cultural spread to one extent or another, so it's only natural that many lean toward disapproval of the 600 pound Gorilla. I agree with much of that disapproval -- and our hypocrisy and ambivalence are the reason for that...

Our governmental system is a part of that problem with 2, 4, 6, and 8 year changes of direction but much of it is self inflicted condescending nannyism. The fact that our 'Diplomats' in too many cases ensconce themselves in gilded ghettoes doesn't help and our penchant for supporting those who talk nicely about us is noted by all.

[KingJaja]

The fact that our 'Diplomats' in too many cases ensconce themselves in gilded ghettoes doesn't help and our penchant for supporting those who talk nicely about us is noted by all.

The US needs to get its diplomats away from their gilded ghettos before it is too late!

[Dayuhan]

Nigerian agents appear to have made a major discovery in their investigations into the sources of funding of the Boko Haram Islamic sect. According to the Nigerian Tribune newspaper, the State Security Service (SSS) and its local and international counterparts have now traced the group's sources of funding to some Al-Qaeda-linked organisations in the Middle East.

That's not impossible, but claims of AQ funding and links always have to be treated with skepticism. Tere's often a strong incentive to exaggerate AQ connections in an attempt to bring in US aid or involvement... the word "communist" was once a corrupt dictator's key to the US treasury, and some governments try to use the word "terrorist" to achieve the same result.

Not saying AQ connections are impossible or implausible, just that the evidence would have to be examined carefully and confirmed through unconnected sources before decisions are made based on the claims.

Do you guys think these people are funding Boko Haram?

Website - http://www.almuntadatrust.org/

Impossible to say without examining the evidence.

[Dayuhan]

Chinese interaction with Africa didn't start yesterday. The Tanzam railway is an example, the Chinese are re-evaluating the railway with a view to upgrading it and making it run profitable.

Ask any Tanzanian about the legacy of the Tanzam railway.

The British built railways in India. Colonial (and neocolonial) powers always invest in infrastructure, it's necessary for the effective distribution of their exports and effective access to resources and raw materials.

Secondly, the West has a much worse legacy of abandoned projects than the Chinese. The entire landscape of Africa is littered with abandoned "World Bank Assisted" projects.

The Chinese on the other hand, have a much better record of revisiting their abandoned projects like rice projects in Sierra Leone, the Tanzam railway and cotton projects in Mali.

The Chinese perception of self-interest tends to be more consistent over time than what prevails in western democracies. That doesn't mean self-interest is not in play.

The Chinese experience in Africa is not a mirror image of the South East Asian experience.

Of course, nothing is ever a mirror image. The point remains that everything the Chinese - or Americans, or Europeans, or Indians - do in Africa is intended, in the long term, to benefit them, not Africans.

We understand that Westerners don't like the Chinese and I still maintain that a lot of Western commentary on Chinese activities in Africa is less informed by facts but a visceral dislike of the Chinese.

We also understand that Africans have a powerful, visceral, and largely justified suspicion of and dislike for the western white brigade, and that a project executed by Chinese will get a very different response than the same project would if it were executed by westerners. Can you imagine what the reaction would be if some of the Chinese agricultural projects in east Africa were to be replicated by (gasp) the British?

As I said above, African suspicion of Western motives is justified and should remain... I'd just suggest extending the same suspicion to anybody else who comes knocking on the door with a bundle of flowers and some pretty talk. The motives are the same, and they've little or nothing to do with your interests. That doesn't mean don't do business with them, it means do business with full awareness that the other guy intends to get more from you than he gives. That's not an accusation, it's recognition of reality... not that my advice matters to anyone, anywhere!

With Obama the rhetoric is always better than the policy. Obama hasn't really brought anything new to the relationship. The visuals are quite compelling, but that's about it.

The rhetoric is always better than the policy... not just with Americans, either. Talk is cheap, always has been.

Anyone trying to deal with the Americans and Chinese has to get a handle on a couple of realities. Certainly there are differences: American administrations base decisions on a combination of pandering to political concerns and their perception of the American interests. Both the concerns being pandered to and the perception of self interest change on a regular basis, leading to enormous inconsistency.

The Chinese have no need to pander to political concerns, and can set foreign policy without much concern for how it will play in Chonquing. Assessments of self-interest are much more consistent over time, without the cyclic lurches that characterize democratic politics. That means their policies can be oriented toward the long term and their horizon for return on an investment can be longer than you'd get from Americans. Of course "effective" in their eyes, as in ours, still means getting more out than they put in, they can just spread it over a longer time.

Africa really needs American help with funding infrastructure and a more Africa-friendly agricultural policy. Since this isn't forthcoming, the Chinese and now the Indians are taking up the slack and rising in prominence.

European agricultural policies are more restrictive, and have a greater impact on Africa, than American ones... not that American agricultural policies aren't ridiculous.

Lots of people need American help. Lots of Americans need American help. The US government is not a charitable institution, and if "prominence" is obtained by spreading money around, who needs it? At the end of the day, why should the US want to compete with the Chinese or Indians for that prominence? What's in it for us? Not much that I can see...

For example, the Boko Haram crises is many things, but it is a fallout of mass unemployment. It is instructive to note that the coordinating minister for the economy went on a trip to China to seek advice on how to initiate a massive public works scheme..

To seek advice, or to seek money? If you want money, always best to go to the chap who has some, and the Chinese have the foreign currency reserves. Besides, I doubt you'd find many Americans, public or private, who want to get involved in public works projects in Northern Nigeria.

With respect to dislike of the US, that Bush 2 era was in fact continuation of the attitudes engendered by the Clinton, Rubin and Summers establishment of economic hegemony around the world and his proclivity for foreign adventurism added to that.

I wouldn't say that Clinton, Rubin, and Summers established economic hegemony. It dropped in their lap due to influences far beyond their control, and was very quickly squandered.

The US needs to get its diplomats away from their gilded ghettos before it is too late!

I really don't think it would matter much. Diplomats don't make policy, and even if some of them did get out in the streets and give good advice, it would be ignored up top.

[Ken White]

I wouldn't say that Clinton, Rubin, and Summers established economic hegemony. It dropped in their lap due to influences far beyond their control, and was very quickly squandered.

Valid point, circumstances were favorable and they certainly tried. They almost made it. Ol' OBL may have had some problems but he did recognize the opening thus gained... :

I really don't think it would matter much. Diplomats don't make policy, and even if some of them did get out in the streets and give good advice, it would be ignored up top.

Totally true. It also would help little in the short term with changes in public perceptions elsewhere. However, in both cases there would -- or certainly could -- be long term change and benefit, though I recognize that might also be squandered. We squander a lot; old habits are hard to change...

[KingJaja]

NB: Most of these names are either Christian or from Southern Nigeria.

What does that tell us?

THE Nigerian Army has named new General Officers Commanding (GOCs) for the 1st division, Kaduna; 3rd division, Jos and 82 division, Enugu in a major redeployment involving 29 generals.

In the redeployment made public on Wednesday, the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 1 Division, Major General Joseph Shoboiki, moved to defence headquarters as Director of Policy (D Pol) while former Director, Training at the Army Headquarters, Major General Garba Ayodele Wahab, becomes the GOC 1 Division.

The statement announcing the redeployments said, “Major General J.O. Nwaogbo is also the new GOC for 3 Division, while Major General Sunday O. Idoko is leaving the 82 Division to become the Chief of Logistics (COLOG) at the Army Headquarters. Major General O.O. Oshinowo of the Special Task Force (STF) Jos is now GOC 82 Division.

“The Commander, Nigerian Army Corps of Artillery (NACA), Major General Emmanuel Etim Bassey has been appointed as the Chief of Administration at Army Headquarters. Major General M.B. Ibrahim, formerly of Defence Headquarters now commands the Special Task Force (STF) Jos.

“In the same vein, Major General A.T. Jibrin and Major General U. Buzugbe have been confirmed as Director of Military Intelligence (DMI) and Military Secretary (Army) respectively. The Director of Army Public Relations, Major General Raphael Ishaku Isa, is now the Provost Marshal of the Nigerian Army while the new Commander of the Nigerian Army Peace Keeping Centre (NAPKC) Jaji, is Major General J.S. Zaruwa. Major General A.S. Agha-Okoro, who until now was at the Department of Army Training and Operations (DATOPS) at the Army Headquarters is now the Director, Legal Services (DLS).

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/news...ys-29-generals

[Stan]

NB: Most of these names are either Christian or from Southern Nigeria.

What does that tell us?

Hey Jaja,
While I see your point herein, I also recall a rather big scandal with 60 to 70 promotions to Brigadier and Major General taking place last year. No offense intended, but this sounds very typical of soldiers within the president's circle being promoted and/or placed into prominent positions regardless of one's qualifications and time in grade. The shuffle also seems very typical when those prominent positions and ranks require housecleaning to preclude one from gaining any authority or status.

Does this sound typical for Nigeria ?

[KingJaja]

Hey Jaja,
While I see your point herein, I also recall a rather big scandal with 60 to 70 promotions to Brigadier and Major General taking place last year. No offense intended, but this sounds very typical of soldiers within the president's circle being promoted and/or placed into prominent positions regardless of one's qualifications and time in grade. The shuffle also seems very typical when those prominent positions and ranks require housecleaning to preclude one from gaining any authority or status.

Does this sound typical for Nigeria ?

You don't become president and stay there by being stupid (Jonathan has a PhD). You make every effort to ensure that only the officers you are comfortable with are in key positions of authority.

All the divisional heads in Northern Nigeria are either Christian or from the South. The Chief of Army Staff is from the South and is Christian. The President wants to feel as comfortable as possible and forestall the occurrence of a coup.

[KingJaja]

The bomb:

A police anti-bomb unit in Kaduna State this evening in a police barracks successfully detonated a bomb which seemed to have been targeted at children of police officers in the area.

The children at the Kabala Doki Police Barracks, which is also known as Mounted Troop, were already playing with the explosive before it became clear what it was.

The police image maker in Kaduna, Aminu Lawan, confirmed to SaharaReporters that the situation was brought to the attention of security forces and the anti-bomb unit rushed into action.

He said the experts removed the explosive, which is “scientific” in nature, and was enclosed in a polythene bag.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page...tonated-kaduna

Please can our explosive experts comment on this device.

An anonymous person at the scene said, “The children were unconsciously playing with the bomb and nothing happened to them”, before it was discovered that the objective was an explosive with a timer on it.

A top State Security Service source also disclosed to SaharaReporters that security personnel also found another bomb in the Barnawa area of the city today.

[Dayuhan]

You don't become president and stay there by being stupid (Jonathan has a PhD). You make every effort to ensure that only the officers you are comfortable with are in key positions of authority.

All the divisional heads in Northern Nigeria are either Christian or from the South. The Chief of Army Staff is from the South and is Christian. The President wants to feel as comfortable as possible and forestall the occurrence of a coup.

Many Presidents of unsettled countries see their own military forces as the primary threat to their administrations, and try to counteract that threat by promoting officers and organizing forces on the basis of loyalty rather than competence. That works well enough until you actually have to fight somebody, as the late Saddam Hussein, among others, learned the hard way.

[KingJaja]

Many Presidents of unsettled countries see their own military forces as the primary threat to their administrations, and try to counteract that threat by promoting officers and organizing forces on the basis of loyalty rather than competence. That works well enough until you actually have to fight somebody, as the late Saddam Hussein, among others, learned the hard way.

There is no military force in Africa that can challenge the Nigeria Army on its home territory. (Egypt and South Africa may have better Militaries but they lack expeditionary capabilities).

No Western power is likely to intervene militarily in Nigeria in the foreseeable future. Nigeria is beyond the capacity of the British and French militaries (logistics, boots on the ground, simple financial costs, post-conflict stabilisation operations) , so that leaves us with the US.

So a Nigerian president (and one with a PhD for that matter) will be smart enough to know that a coup or an insurrection is more likely than an invasion and the having loyalists around is a wise course of action.

No one is suggesting that these officers are not competent because they are Christian or from the South. Nigeria has been ruled for most of its independence by Northern generals, so when Obasanjo "depoliticised" the army purging it of officers who had previously held political appointments, many Northerners were affected. The less political and hence more professional army officers tended to be either from the South or Christian, so the president has a lot of names to play around with.

[Stan]

The bomb:

Please can our explosive experts comment on this device.

An anonymous person at the scene said, “The children were unconsciously playing with the bomb and nothing happened to them”, before it was discovered that the objective was an explosive with a timer on it.

A top State Security Service source also disclosed to SaharaReporters that security personnel also found another bomb in the Barnawa area of the city today.

This is a little difficult to adequately answer your questions due in large part to the following:

The article states that the bomb squad "detonated" the "bomb".
The item pictured is clearly what is known around the world as an Improvised Explosive Device (IED), and to term it simply as a "bomb" is ambiguous to the rest of us that are considered professionals. Secondly, EOD never intentionally detonates an IED. See more below.

From the little I can gather from the pictures and the fact that a timer was used, this was not intended to be "victim operated" so it's clear that the children were not intended to merely "play" with it in order to initiate a detonation. The wiring is carelessly placed and fully exposed making it realistically simple in design.

It's a fairly large container (kilo or more), so we're back to home made explosives with very little blast effect (compared to say composition B or C found in most of the UXO in Nigeria). If you go back a few posts where I indicated how precariously they were cleaning up the UXO in Nigeria, you'll understand better why. This UXO is free to be had, far safer to play with than home made explosives and far more powerful to use in small quantities.

If they indeed detonated the device they have little-to-no forensics in a whole state and they have created more work and danger than anything else. They also have at their disposal FBI representatives and should be taking advantage of their experience and assistance - I assume even free of charge. They should be more diligent providing the rest of the world with immediate data on sites like LEO (law enforcement on line) and the BDC (bomb data center). It is literally taking weeks from the time of the event to appear and even then, they are not requesting assistance. It should be up in hours, or, at least once the forensics are available.