Russian Subversion in the Information Age

[Bill Moore]

David,

I missed your post, my apologies for the double post. Nonetheless, it is a topic I want to explore further on this thread over time. The nature of information power in the 21st Century, and how it has evolved from previous decades and even centuries. Using covert influence is certainly not a new statecraft tool for states to employ, but how it is employed now is considerably different.

Azor,

I agree that the impact on the election was minimal, the bottom line is Clinton simply didn't run a good campaign and inadequately responded to allegations about her character. Furthermore, it isn't unusual for Americans to want to switch between a Republican and Democratic President after one has been in power for 8 years.

The real issue is the perception that Russia's information campaign made a difference, and the divisions it is creating in our society. And as you posted, the larger concern is Russia's objective:

The Russian trolls' main emphasis was inciting communal hatred. Political ads were a small part of that campaign.

[Azor]

Azor,

I agree that the impact on the election was minimal, the bottom line is Clinton simply didn't run a good campaign and inadequately responded to allegations about her character. Furthermore, it isn't unusual for Americans to want to switch between a Republican and Democratic President after one has been in power for 8 years.

The real issue is the perception that Russia's information campaign made a difference, and the divisions it is creating in our society. And as you posted, the larger concern is Russia's objective:

Bill,

What I find disturbing is that those who supported Hillary Clinton’s candidacy have used Russia’s intelligence operations to attempt to de-legitimize the 2016 presidential election. Yet, to be fair, had Hillary Clinton won, she would have been embattled just the same and the electorate would be at least as fractious as now.

Few are willing to admit that America’s best and brightest are apparently avoiding public office, and that the absence of an existential threat to the U.S. leaves the field to special interests vying for influence and resources.

Perception is reality, and in that regard the Russian campaign was a tremendous success. Russia is now more salient in the popular American discourse than at any time since the end of the Cold War, and this is in spite of Russia’s linear history of aggression since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, aggression which was restrained more by capabilities than intentions. Yet the Kremlin continues to misunderstand American policymaking and the short-sightedness caused by electoral turnover.

Indeed, Gerasimov’s alleged “doctrine” is actually a description of how Russians believe the U.S. has pursued foreign policy from Operation Allied Force in 1999 to Operation Odyssey Dawn in 2011. As Western analysts work on countermeasures to “hybrid” or “non-linear” warfare, they either fail to see that this is a counter to a counter, or they are reveling in the attention once gobbled up by CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. Either way, any state would prefer its rivals and adversaries to be kept busy with internal matters, and Russia is no exception. However, there is a danger in enforcing conformity internally to protect against external subversion…

[davidbfpo]

Clint Watts, who used to post here, has been an observer of this theme for a few years now and this article / report. The full title being: So What Did We Learn? Looking Back on Four Years of Russia’s Cyber-Enabled “Active Measures”

He ends with:

The Kremlin’s playbook is in the wild, and authoritarians around the world have begun adopting their techniques in pursuit of domestic and foreign audience manipulation. The world, and particularly the West, must move past the presidential election of 2016, learn from its mistakes, and begin anticipating where the Kremlin will move next. No one has successfully countered Russia’s approach yet, and Putin has no reason to stop. In the absence of resistance, Russia will exploit success, not demonstrate self-restraint.

Link:http://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/b...ctive-measures

[AdamG]

Russia trolls US on Twitter. Jocularity within link below.

http://www.newsweek.com/russia-troll...-ghouta-836261

[AdamG]

The Trump administration accused Russia on Thursday of engineering a series of cyberattacks that targeted American and European nuclear power plants and water and electric systems, and could have sabotaged or shut power plants off at will.

United States officials and private security firms saw the attacks as a signal by Moscow that it could disrupt the West’s critical facilities in the event of a conflict.

They said the strikes accelerated in late 2015, at the same time the Russian interference in the American election was underway. The attackers had compromised some operators in North America and Europe by spring 2017, after President Trump was inaugurated.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/15/u...erattacks.html

[davidbfpo]

This is a new book by Clint Watts, who once frequented the Forum and the full title is: 'Messing With The Enemy: Surviving in a Social Media World Of Hackers, Terrorists, Russians and Fake News'. In an email his short description is:

....explores how bad actors have come to social media to rally their allies and take down their adversaries. I discuss the tricks and tactics of the Kremlin’s trolls, social media conversations with terrorists, and the future of social media influence. I finish with some thoughts on how countries, corporations and citizens - each of us - can survive in a hyperconnected social media world.

Available via:https://www.amazon.com/Messing-Enemy...70_&dpSrc=srch

He was on Bill Maher's show two weeks ago; in an eight minute clip via:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwdIxhAkBc

[AdamG]

Detailed article on the attack on A.P. Møller-Maersk.

In the spring of 2017, unbeknownst to anyone at Linkos Group, Russian military hackers hijacked the company’s update servers to allow them a hidden back door into the thousands of PCs around the country and the world that have M.E.Doc installed. Then, in June 2017, the saboteurs used that back door to release a piece of malware called #NotPetya, their most vicious cyberweapon yet.

https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya...shed-the-world