Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Stan]

REFORGER continued until 1993.

Yep, May 1993 in Kaiserslautern. most of us knew that though

But, it does ever so slightly relate to this thread, assuming the Ukraine joins NATO.

Maybe we'll call it REFORUK... but that could be confused with yanks returning to the UK

[carl]

Do you guys think Putin's grabbing of the OSCE officers is sort of a reply of the grift he ran on us in Syria? In Syria he managed to adroitly shift the attention of our chief executive from Assad's action to the status of his chem weapons stockpile. Got an agreement that was ignored and neatly put Assad's action into the land of the forgotten.

In this case he snatches the officers then will generously offer to intercede with himself to get them released. He thereby shifts attention from an looming invasion to some individuals and will gain great gratitude and approbation for himself when he is able to finally convince himself to release them, for a price of course.

The more I see of this the more I think we may be underestimating this guy. He's on the ball. Right now him vs our guys is like Bismark vs a very concerned high school sophomore.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Yep, May 1993 in Kaiserslautern. most of us knew that though

But, it does ever so slightly relate to this thread, assuming the Ukraine joins NATO.

Maybe we'll call it REFORUK... but that could be confused with yanks returning to the UK

We were confused anyway. I always thought REFORGER was a name of some super-secret forge we had somewhere.

[mirhond]

"Discipline" in the Ukrainian army.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=wwQIC37VVuI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=QQZnJ8ZinpA

Rookies have something to say to their superiors.
I could translate it, but I don't think it's neccessary, it's mostly "Get the fu(K out" ranting. Videos speak for itself.

Donbass militia claimed to capture a group SBU officers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onoxc7E7LO0
Faces are covered, the whole thing looks like Bravo Sierra (thanks to Stan for a new mot ) but, who knows, may be these guys are real saboteurs.

[JMA]

John McCain with Charlie Rose

The first 20 odd minutes is on Ukraine.

[JMA]

Stopping Russia Starts in Syria

Anne-Marie Slaughter writes:

Obama took office with the aim of ending wars, not starting them. But if the US meets bullets with words, tyrants will draw their own conclusions. So will allies; Japan, for example, is now wondering how the US will respond should China manufacture a crisis over the disputed Senkaku Islands.

[carl]

"Discipline" in the Ukrainian army.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=wwQIC37VVuI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=QQZnJ8ZinpA

Rookies have something to say to their superiors.

Discipline or lack thereof in the Ukrainian Army isn't what Russia should be concerned about. Russia should be concerned about the enthusiasm of potential Ukrainian irregulars and insurgents, potential enthusiasm for plugging occupying Russian troops.

[kaur]

Head of pro-Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine Igor Strelkov is experienced FSB officer. This morning there was intensive discussion about Igor Strelkov's backround in Russian social media. Some active people found out that Strelkov is active member of one military history forum, where he also posted his short military career. Those military units will say nothing to outsiders, but after some search you can find that the numbers are connected to FSB subunits. One of the units has some period served also in Chechnya.

http://shgid.fmbb.ru/viewtopic.php?p...ighlight=#2983
http://russia.bestpravo.ru/fed1998/data06/tex20098.htm
http://forum.yurclub.ru/index.php?ap...ttach_id=68629

[OUTLAW 09]

Head of pro-Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine Igor Strelkov is experienced FSB officer. This morning there was intensive discussion about Igor Strelkov's backround in Russian social media. Some active people found out that Strelkov is active member of one military history forum, where he also posted his short military career. Those military units will say nothing to outsiders, but after some search you can find that the numbers are connected to FSB subunits. One of the units has some period served also in Chechnya.

http://shgid.fmbb.ru/viewtopic.php?p...ighlight=#2983
http://russia.bestpravo.ru/fed1998/data06/tex20098.htm
http://forum.yurclub.ru/index.php?ap...ttach_id=68629

kaur---all this means is that the Russian Foreign Minister, the Duma President, Putin, the Russian Defense Minster, and the FSB/GRU Chiefs cannot be lying as they all are stating there are no active duty Russian troops inside the Ukraine-(they never do mention what if they are Reservists)--or at least this is what Interfax, TASS, RIA/Novosti, Russia 24 and Russian TV is saying almost every day that they are saying---and you do understand that the Russia media and the Russian elites never lie.

But again it is the same Russian media that utters the word Nazi/Right Sector (means the same thing) more times daily than the entire German media has used the word Nazi in the last 30 years---there is an old saying---repeat something seven times and one starts to believe it---it is a left/right brain thing.

[mirhond]

Discipline or lack thereof in the Ukrainian Army isn't what Russia should be concerned about. Russia should be concerned about the enthusiasm of potential Ukrainian irregulars and insurgents, potential enthusiasm for plugging occupying Russian troops.

There are no evidences of "occupying Russian troops" in the first place.

Hardcore regime-fighter and make-believe mediator Khodorkovski is not welcome among common folk,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YlRS5ZMd6w
(the message is plain and simple: "Get out")

but local mafia boss Renat Akhmetov is not so biased.
http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews.d...436993&lang=ru
"We talked and his position is clear - Donbass is Ukraine" said Khodorkovski.

[Stan]

Mirhond,

There are no evidences of "occupying Russian troops" in the first place.

I don't think Carl was saying there are occupying Russian troops, but, rather, that once there are, there would be a concern with Ukrainian irregulars involved in social upheaval.

It is in fact what sparked young Estonian irregulars from 97 to present day.

However, Vova knows how to use his miilita both at home and abroad.

This part of the world only responds to one thing.... The stick and no carrots, and vodka

[kaur]

This site claims that Strelkov's last service place is military unit 36391, which is FSB anti-terrorist unit, that should fight against international terrorism.

Последнее место службы (в/ч 36391) - это Управление по борьбе с международным терроризмом 2-й Службы ФСБ России.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/830579.html

It seems to me that Russia is now terrorism exporter like during Soviet time. Was it called state sponsored terrorism? Defence minister Shoigu may claim that military units by the Ukrainian border have left back to barracks and it may seem that situation has been deescalated (there will be no conventional war), but my humble opinion is that special services have set up insurgency in neighboring country. Russian media has brainwashed audience, there are many weapons available, networks of people have been mapped etc. There are plenty of levers to play with violent and nonviolent methods against central government in Kiev. Intensity of operations will be dictated according to political events calendar in Ukraine.