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Old 10-08-2013   #121
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We have done a whole lot with force and not really changed or improved the situation - and given the time and financial resources expended, this is troubling. We have done blessed little in other areas comparatively, and we certainly haven't done much to understand why there is such permissive support for the animosity towards the West. And that, my friends, is why we are in no better place than 13 years ago. Shame.

Jill
Omar is right. Organized states are the critical node, one that we basically refuse to address. Flat out refuse. It is no wonder that the situation doesn't change, even perhaps worsens over time, when Osama is found where he was found and we don't change how we deal with Pakistan.

As far as AQ, their affiliates and all the other crazy Wahabi takfiri killers go, the Pak Army/ISI keeps them going. We know it, the takfiri killers know it, the world knows it. Yet we do nothing. You're right. We should be ashamed.
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Old 10-08-2013   #122
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Omar is right. Organized states are the critical node, one that we basically refuse to address. Flat out refuse. It is no wonder that the situation doesn't change, even perhaps worsens over time, when Osama is found where he was found and we don't change how we deal with Pakistan.

As far as AQ, their affiliates and all the other crazy Wahabi takfiri killers go, the Pak Army/ISI keeps them going. We know it, the takfiri killers know it, the world knows it. Yet we do nothing. You're right. We should be ashamed.
Important but overstated. Do the Mexican cartels need state support, or do they have the ability to co-opt individuals within the government? Is ISI the state? Or are we they an organization beyond control of the state? State support for terrorists can be a powerful enabler but it is not essential for terrorists to operate. It is more likely states will syndicate with terrorists when they have common interests.

Last edited by Bill Moore; 10-08-2013 at 10:45 PM.
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Old 10-08-2013   #123
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Important but overstated. Do the Mexican cartels need state support, or do they have the ability to co-opt individuals within the government? Is ISI the state? Or are we they an organization beyond control of the state? State support for terrorists can be a powerful enabler but it is not essential for terrorists to operate. It is more likely states will syndicate with terrorists when they have common interests.
Not overstated at all. The Mexican cartels are not trying to take over the government. They are only after the getting the gov off their backs so they can do business. If they really and truly tried to take the gov down, they would darn well need support from outside because they wouldn't last long otherwise. Mexican history shows those guys don't fool around when things get serious.

The Pak Army/ISI is the government. They aren't beyond the control of anybody. The ISI is part of the Pak Army (check out what assignments Kayani had) and the Pak Army runs the outfit along with the feudal elites. If whoever is the putative head of the government calls up the army and asks for the resignation of the army head, the ISI head and the corps commanders, he won't be the putative head of the government for long.

Of course state support for terrorists isn't essential for them to operate. That isn't what I referred to. The Tsarnaev brothers didn't have state support but they didn't last long either. Big league persistent outfits have it though, or they wouldn't be big league persistent outfits. Common interests? I don't know. It's not important. The Pak Army/ISI backs all sorts of takfiri killers. We know it and don't do a damn thing about it. That's important.
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Old 10-10-2013   #124
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I am not an expert, let alone well read on the presence of sadism in Jihadist violence, but this passage simply did not sound truthful:

So I contacted an Indian friend, a Mumbai resident, who officially investigated the attacks and is "in the know". He responded:

The Indian police charge sheet, which details what property was recovered and no such weapons are shown (I have a copy).

I do not doubt mutilation has happened, for example in London, but the author is wrong about Mumbai and I suspect such violence did not occur in Nairobi.
It is a fact that some Islamists torture and mutilate their victims, but it does not seem to be a common practice. What I don't know is if it is part of a ritual based on religion or just sick behavior conducted by a few? I'll go a step further and wonder if they're actually more humane than many others we have fought to include Saddam's relatively secular forces, the Vietnamese, Japanese, Germans, Soviets and their proxies, etc.? Putting it in context the incidents of Islamists torturing their victims pales in comparison to the Cartels in Mexico, the Mafia in Italy, numerous communist insurgent groups, and of course the Nazis and Japanese practicing the unspeakable on an industrial scale, etc. On the other hand I am still concerned with the apologists for the Islamists in the media. It seems people can pick the news they want to reinforce their view (savage killers or something far from that), but the truth is getting harder and harder to come by in our so called information age (maybe more accurately the disinformation age). What little I could find on potential torture in the mall is still very questionable.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/02/world/...ing/index.html

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Members of Kenya's government were mute about what they had seen inside after emerging from an inspection there earlier this week.

CNN learned that the Westgate mall attackers tortured some of the hostages.

Military doctors said militants severed hands, cut off noses and, in some cases, hanged hostages. CNN has seen photographic evidence of one dead victim with a hand amputated.
http://video.search.yahoo.com/video/...=p&age=0&&tt=b

CNN Video briefly discusses potential torture/maiming during the attack and claims to have photographic evidence, but of course not provided.

My research on Dawn Perlmutter exposes little new JMM didn't already point out, except I did look at the reviews of her book on Amazon and the majority of reviews were one star reviews based on her lack of knowledge on the topic.
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Old 10-14-2013   #125
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Default apparently it was just the beginning

If we believe the Kenyan security agencies:

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Security agencies worry about new terrorist threats in Kenya

Kenyan and Western security services are racing against time to foil new planned terror attacks in Kenya barely three weeks after the Westgate attack.

Much of the investigations are now focused on the underground activities of a shadowy militant organisation called Al-Hijra, led by Sheikh Iman Ali, a Kenyan preacher now hosted by al-Shabaab in Somalia.
...
“We in the EU are aware of the threats posed by Al-Hijra and its affiliates. The new plots are grave and warrant a lot of attention, but we have no intention at this stage to elevate them into a full-blown travel alert. We are sensitive to Kenya and its economic needs and we are all working together to foil possible future attacks,” a senior European diplomat told the Sunday Nation.
...
“Westgate was a complex operation that was carried out with low-tech means and certainly much more difficult to detect or disrupt than the iconic suicide bomber. It is also much easier to replicate,” Matt Bryden, a regional analyst and director of Sahan Research, told the Sunday Nation
...
“There have been extensive arrests in Kenya, on the border with Somalia, and even as far as Uganda and Tanzania. I believe good progress is being made. But we must complement these measures by strengthening our capacity; improving our intelligence gathering and law enforcement systems and improving co-operation with the public.”
...
“Al-Hijra has been under surveillance for a number of years and the Kenyan state has accumulated enough intelligence on its ideological leaders to disrupt the movement. For some reasons, there is reluctance to provide classified intelligence to the law enforcement agencies for effective prosecutions. And this ought to change.”
http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Oc..._in_kenya.aspx
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Old 11-29-2013   #126
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Default ###-For-Tat: Kenya, Somalia, and the Resurgence of al-Shabaab

###-For-Tat: Kenya, Somalia, and the Resurgence of al-Shabaab

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Old 12-10-2013   #127
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Default NYPD report

No real surprises here IMHO in a breathless story:
Quote:
.. simple, its effective and easy to copy (much later)....counterterror operatives are looking at a world that appears more frightening every day.....At the end of the day, these days, terror’s just another word for a few guys with guns.
Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-massacre.html

I would ask does such reporting in fact amplify the effect of terror?
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Old 12-11-2013   #128
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No real surprises here IMHO in a breathless story:

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-massacre.html

I would ask does such reporting in fact amplify the effect of terror?
Breathless? A sense of an almost pornographic thrill imagining what might happen? In creating that thrill, amplifying the effect of terror? From an American dominant liberal establishment mass media writer? Naw, ain't never gonna' happen.
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Old 12-11-2013   #129
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Default Mall Videos

Long one and short one gave me a better idea of what happened. A 4-man fire team - what if a section of 4 fire teams had been there ?

Regards

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Old 12-11-2013   #130
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Maybe more difficult to infiltrate the additional numbers (people, weapons and ammo) without drawing attention.

The end result is that they achieved their aim, got away with it and exposed the Kenyan military as being something like the Keystone Cops.


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Long one and short one gave me a better idea of what happened. A 4-man fire team - what if a section of 4 fire teams had been there ?

Regards

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Old 01-01-2014   #131
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Interesting insights from the NYC police report on the Westgate Mall attack that adds insult to injury.

http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_n...says-nypd?lite

Only four shooters at Kenya mall and they may have escaped alive, says NYPD

Quote:
According to the NYPD’s reconstruction of events, the four attackers operated in two-man teams and coordinated their movements by cellphone. After throwing three grenades and entering the mall, they used AK-47s in single-fire mode to shoot their victims. More than one-third of the dead were attending a children’s cooking contest that was being held in tents in the mall’s roof parking lot. The attackers killed them within 15 minutes of arriving at the mall.

The report said the attackers had grenades and several hundred bullets in eight magazines, but no body armor, handguns or heavy weapons. They did not try to take hostages, but killed as many victims as they could, sparing some who could recite Muslim prayers or name the Prophet Mohammed’s mother. A Russian hand grenade was found on the roof with the pin removed but unexploded.
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Old 01-07-2014   #132
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Default CRS report

Follow this link http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R43245_20131114.pdf to the CRS titled The September 2013 Terrorist Attack in Kenya:
In Brief...good background material.
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Old 01-09-2014   #133
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Default A Kenyan on why

An op-ed in the NYT by a Kenyan community worker and worth a read, familiar themes, so no surprises.

It ends with:
Quote:
If we pursue an antiterrorism strategy based on tactical strikes, it will only further a cycle of violence. The perpetual sense of anger experienced in urban poverty will ensure that there are always new terrorist leaders to replace those who are killed. The war on terror can be won only through education, promise and real opportunities.

It is time to give young men like my friends, and like those today living in urban slums, hope. That is the only way to end the violence that preys on our cities’ most vulnerable.
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/09/op..._20140109&_r=0
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Old 03-10-2014   #134
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The trail for the Al-Shabaab supporters during the WestGate Mall attack is ongoing in Kenya, but sufficient details haven't been released in the media yet from the trail to do even a cursory analysis based on the testimony. What I did find interesting was the number of terrorist attacks in Kenya since that attack that received little or no media coverage in the West. Since terrorists thrive on media coverage I see that is a positive. To be expected, Kenya's ongoing crackdown on potential Islamic terrorists may over reach and generate anger with Muslims who were previously not associated with extremism. Also, still reports coming out about torture, but nothing credible as of yet. One would assume if it was the case it would come out in testimony. Finally, Business Insider interviews a member of Al-Shabaab in Somalia who provides a lot of insider detail on the planning for the attack. If true, there is a lot that hasn't made main stream media yet, and probably won't with the more pressing issues of Ukraine, the missing Malaysian Airline, Syria, etc., but this is important.

Is Kenya's proactive approach over stepping?

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Afric...-Muslim-youths

Will Kenya mosque assault radicalize Muslim youths?

Demand is high in Kenya to route out radicals and stop extremism since the Al Shabab attack on Nairobi's Westgate Mall. But there's growing concern that heavy handed tactics may backfire.

Quote:
However it started, police stormed the religious structure with boots on and began firing tear gas and live bullets at youth, some of whom fought back with knives. After a melee that captured national attention, police arrested 129 people, including 21 minors, some only 12 years old. Dozens were injured, and rioting continued for days as wounded succumbed to injuries. By Feb. 6, seven Muslims and one police officer lay dead.
Quote:
To be sure, Kenya’s security forces are under great pressure to deal with a resurgence of terror. In the months since Westgate, there’s been a deadly bombing on a Nairobi public bus, a blast at Nairobi’s international airport, and numerous grenade attacks have maimed civilians around Mombasa, including in a popular beach resort town.
Testimony at the trial.

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-03-06-w...oting-children

Westgate mall terrorists argued over shooting children

Quote:
Kotia then told the court that one of the attackers said "we Mujahedeen don't kill small children and women".

But seconds later another gunman said "but you have been killing our children and women in Somalia" and the shooting resumed.
http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/13...attack-updated

Kenya adjourns trial of Somalis on Westgate Mall attack-UPDATED

Quote:
"The suspects were not at Westgate on 21st September when the terrorist attack occurred," defense lawyer Mbugua Mureithi told Anadolu Agency on Monday.

"They have never been to Westgate. And they don't know the people who attacked Westgate. So there is no connection between the suspects I am representing and those who attacked Westgate."
The following interview covers more than Westgate Mall, but the first of three pages focuses on how that planned and supported the attack. Accuracy can't be verified, but many of the claims are logical, a few seem to be simply boastful.

http://www.businessinsider.com/al-sh...-2014-2?page=1

First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0

Quote:
Law enforcement has been eager to paint the attackers as an amateurish group of opportunists who took advantage of lax security at the mall. By contrast, Jamal told me the attack had been under discussion for three years, since the African Union Mission to Somalia, AMISOM, which includes troops from Kenya, Ethiopia and several other African nations, initiated an incursion, known as Operation Linda Nchi, into Southern Somalia in an effort to drive Shabaab militants from the area.

Jamal confirmed that only four gunmen entered the mall on Sept. 21, as Kenyan officials later determined by examining closed-circuit video footage. But he added that the reason the attack was so successful and lasted so long is that other members of al Shabaab were already positioned inside, having infiltrated the Westgate as vendors, bribing police and mall security to look the other way.
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Old 03-10-2014   #135
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First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0
Again a politically driven military operation carried out in haste that fails and not only brings the skill and professionalism of the special forces involved into doubt/question ... but probably more importantly offers AQ a propaganda coup on a golden platter.
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Old 03-11-2014   #136
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Again a politically driven military operation carried out in haste that fails and not only brings the skill and professionalism of the special forces involved into doubt/question ... but probably more importantly offers AQ a propaganda coup on a golden platter.
I hope no one in the military would call SOF capability into question over one operation that wasn't successful. The nature of high risk ops is that they're high risk and failure is a possibility. Yes a propaganda victory for Al-Qaeda but one for us also.
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Old 03-11-2014   #137
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Bill,

We are not talking about anyone in the military here we are talking about the propaganda value of such an operations failure to the enemy.

Some civies seem to understand that:

Failed Navy SEALs raid on Somali target could bolster Al Shabab

Was this a high risk op? I suggest that the haste in which it was undertaken led to the failure.

Help me understand what you see as being a US propaganda advantage arising from this failure?



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Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
I hope no one in the military would call SOF capability into question over one operation that wasn't successful. The nature of high risk ops is that they're high risk and failure is a possibility. Yes a propaganda victory for Al-Qaeda but one for us also.

Last edited by JMA; 03-11-2014 at 08:12 AM.
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Old 03-11-2014   #138
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No propaganda for us from its failure, but from demonstrating we know who they are, where they are, that we have the military capability to strike globally, and that we have the will to do so.

While the title of the article was drama queenish, the article didn't focus on the raid, but Al-Shabaab overall. Don't mind discussing this elsewhere, but I don't want to sideline the discussion focused on the Westgate Mall attack.

I understand your point about propaganda value, that is a risk. Imagine the propaganda value to Al-Qaeda if the raid on UBL would have failed? It is risk that is considered as part of planning. I have no insight if the raid on Somalia was carried out in haste and if that contributed to its failure or not. On the other hand, a lot of our targets are not static, and our ability to respond quickly to perishable information on the target is essential in today's fight.
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Old 03-11-2014   #139
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No propaganda for us from its failure, but from demonstrating we know who they are, where they are, that we have the military capability to strike globally, and that we have the will to do so.
That would be propaganda value only if lessened their will and determinstion. There has been little evidence that it has.

That is so mainly I think because while they have little doubt about our knowing who they are, where they are, and that we can strike wherever; I think they have grave doubts about our long term will. A SEAL raid that they defeated isn't going to impress them.

Amendment to the above: I got to thinking, we don't know for sure who pulled off the Westgate Mall attack and we sure as heck don't know where they are. So that doesn't leave us much to impress them with.
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Last edited by carl; 03-11-2014 at 11:05 PM.
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Old 05-10-2014   #140
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Default The Lay-Out of Westgate Mall and its Significance in the Westgate Mall Attack in Keny

The Lay-Out of Westgate Mall and its Significance in the Westgate Mall Attack in Kenya

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