Nigeria 2013-2017

[JMA]

Another crisis (has nothing to do with either the Niger Delta or Boko Haram) in Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt".

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.

This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state

Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.

So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting

[jmm99]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).

[JMA]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).

In this case it would be punitive... in those days it was used as a pretext

There must some great examples of pretext out of American history, yes?

[JMA]

I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.

Look forward to that.

[ganulv]

Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.

So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.

[JMA]

Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.

In most of these remote areas the borders were purely administrative and movements continued must as before.

Competition over land use - as you mentioned - is probably the cause and mainly due to the growth of the population that must be sustained from the land. Not sure how much water is an (additional contributing) issue there... but you would know about that matter from US history out West with the 'water wars'.

Something has to give... there has to be a loser (and he must lose big).

[KingJaja]

This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state


So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting

A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.

[JMA]

A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.

Then as you said earlier:

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.

Democracy? More like a Kleptocracy.

[jmm99]

Sure; we had a lot of both.

Here's my favorite cow story (which has both), Into the West - Part 3 (Dreams and Schemes); starts at 56:00; ends at 1:02:20. Great ending, IMO - payback's a mother - the "Grattan Pincushion". Historical event (link).

Regards

Mike

[KingJaja]

Interesting/bizarre story.

Istanbul (AFP) - Turkish Airlines allegedly shipped weapons to unknown groups in Nigeria, which has been ravaged by violence between the army and Boko Haram militants, a new incriminating phone call revealed on Tuesday.

The leaked conversation is the latest blow to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been hit by a corruption probe ensnaring his key allies and a widening phone-tapping scandal.

In a tape posted on YouTube, Mehmet Karatas, an assistant executive of the airline, allegedly tells Mustafa Varank, an advisor to Erdogan, that he feels guilty over national flag carrier's arms shipment to Nigeria.

"I do not know whether these (weapons) will kill Muslims or Christians. I feel sinful," Karatas is allegedly heard saying.

The leaked call has the potential to harm the airline's image -- which is 49 percent state-owned and is in an aggressive push to become a global player.

It is the latest in a series of recordings implicating Erdogan and his aides in corruption and other abuses of power ahead of crucial local polls on March 30.

The Turkish strongman has dismissed most of the tapes as "vile" fakes put together by rivals.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-airlin...202353840.html

[davidbfpo]

The title of a Nigerian news site, which is almost breathless in its applause:http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/n...wins-plaudits/

How about this passage as a taster:

National Security Adviser Sambo Dasuki unveiled the new measures in a rare public announcement that touched not only on past mistakes but indicated a more joined-up approach to tackling the crisis.

Dasuki’s “soft power” plan includes “de-radicalisation” programmes for suspected and convicted Boko Haram fighters as well as closer co-operation with communities most affected by the deadly violence.

[KingJaja]

This has no direct connection with Boko Haram or other topics of interest to terrorism scholars. But it illustrates the massive youth unemployment & underemployment that fuels a lot of the problems in Nigeria.

In summary about 520,000 people applied for a little over 4,000 jobs - & as of today 16 people died in the ensuing stampede over the nation.

ABUJA – At least seven people were killed and dozens injured in Nigeria’s capital after thousands of panicked job-seekers stampeded during a government recruitment drive in the national stadium on Saturday.
Survivors told AFP that thousands had gathered to apply for jobs with the immigration department in the Abuja stadium.
One witness said the stampede broke out as applicants surged towards a central stage. They said only one entrance to the 60,000-capacity stadium was open. It wasn’t clear how many people were inside at the time of the crush.

- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/i....4JlhEAik.dpuf