SMALL WARS COUNCIL
Go Back   Small Wars Council > Conflicts -- Current & Future > Other, By Region > Middle East

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-08-2015   #101
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default

A Yemeni reporter's story on the attack in Sanaa, on a line of young men seeking to join the police, with a bomb killing fifty and injuring a hundred:http://blog.haykal.sg/the-yemen/51-m...ayhem-in-sanaa

I cite one passage on what security means for the Yemeni people themselves:
Quote:
There is one constant truth in Sanaa these last few years : the Yemeni government, the police, the army and the various militias who populate the Yemeni capital are too busy with their own fights to provide Yemeni citizens with any form of security. In Sanaa, each man has to be personally responsible to protect his home, family and children.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2015   #102
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default

A short guide and comment on the apparently relentless demise of the Yemeni state:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ploding-yemen/
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2015   #103
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default As Yemen nears the abyss, DoD is calm

As the Yemeni government goes through a difficult time, in Washington DC Michael Vickers, a DoD Under-Secretary, seems unperturbed as the Houthis appear to take greater power.

To be fair the political contortions, mainly followed on Twitter, are - well - Yemeni. The President resigns, his ostensible replacement is a place man for the former president; parliament refuses to accept the resignation and speculation is rife that the south will pursue a different path. Ah, the parliament was last elected in 2003. its term ended in 2009 and has been extended by them since then.

Back to Mr Vickers public statement; in summary:
Quote:
Despite alarmist news reports, the Barack Obama administration appears to have adjusted to the rise of the Houthis in Yemen and is continuing attacks on al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Link:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/orig...#ixzz3Pa2g6WpC
__________________
davidbfpo

Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-22-2015 at 07:42 PM.
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2015   #104
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default The End Of Yemen?

Gregory Johnsen, a non-residnet now SME, writes a column entitled: 'Yemen’s constant state of political crisis reached a new zenith on Thursday with the president’s resignation. But the worst may be yet to come:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...men#.twEY7nbor

He ends with:
Quote:
.....as more regions drift out of the orbit of Sanaa, AQAP will likely attempt to exploit the situation by seizing as much territory as it can. Indeed, that is what much of Yemen has become: a land grab for any group strong enough to hold what it claims.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2015   #105
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default An introduction to Yemen's emergency

An article from a Yemen SME, who it appears is still in country which helps IMHO:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...%27s-emergency

I had been wondering how the Huthis had reached Sanaa, without much fighting and the author's answer reflects the byzantine ways of the Yemen:
Quote:
How did the Huthis rise from being a minority regional politico-military movement to taking complete control over the formal state in less than one year? Long suspected by most Yemenis, but ignored by the international community, and denied by both concerned parties, the alliance between the Huthis and Saleh has been the main factor behind their military success. The vast majority of the Huthis’ armed forces are military and security units loyal to Saleh who follow his orders. Moreover even senior Huthi leaders take orders from Saleh.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2015   #106
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default Not politics, just people

A press release from Oxfam on the humanitarian situation:
Quote:
More than half of Yemen’s population needs aid and a humanitarian crisis of extreme proportions is at risk of unfolding in the country if instability continues, Oxfam warns today.
  • Throughout the country there are 16 million people in need of aid, meaning one in three people needing help in the entire Middle East is Yemeni.
  • Ten million Yemenis do not have enough to eat, including 850,000 acutely malnourished children.
  • Millions have no clean water and are unable to access basic healthcare services.
Unless the deepening crisis in Yemen is addressed soon it will be almost impossible to prevent this dangerous situation from becoming deadly, putting huge numbers of lives at risk.

It appears for depth there is an OCHA report with more details linked in.

Link:http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pr...ons-lives-risk
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-2015   #107
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default

A map recommended via Twitter by a SME, it comes from the AEI Critical Threats Project:http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen

__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 Weeks Ago   #108
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default What the Houthi?

A simple guide to the Houthi insurgency:http://www.buzzfeed.com/gregorydjohn...men#.tiboEADKr

It ends with:
Quote:
The Yemen model that President Obama praised only a few months ago has collapsed. The state has fractured and no one is sure if it can be put back together again. A decade ago the Huthis were at war with the state and looked to be on the verge of extinction, today they’re in the presidential palace.
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 Weeks Ago   #109
CrowBat
Council Member
 
CrowBat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Haxbach, Schnurliland
Posts: 295
Default

After a rather 'shaky' and 'mainstream' introduction, this feature offers a some much better conclusions:

Does Iran really control Yemen?
Quote:
...Given these circumstances, why do several Iranian officials depict Yemen as a new Islamic Republic stronghold and part of the “resistance”?

There could be two explanations.

The first is that Iran has not materially assisted and supported the Houthis, and that Iranian statements of the opposite are simply targeting several audiences domestically and regionally. Iranian officials who do insist on Yemen’s place in the “resistance” depict the rise of revolutionary Shiite Houthis in Yemen as yet another victory for Iran and against the West, and particularly their Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia.

Iran, then, is exaggerating its regional power and military reach to create a mystical stature aimed at solidifying the confidence of its grassroots supporters within and outside its borders — in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon — while muscle-flexing, and discouraging and pushing its domestic and international opponents onto the defensive.
...
The presence of an Iran ally at the borders of Saudi Arabia is not only a serious threat militarily but could also destabilize the country from within. The victory of Houthis may inspire the Shiites in Eastern Province, an estimated 10% to 15% of the Saudi population who are already in a tense relationship with the establishment, to rise.

The weakness of this explanation is that while Saudis have poured billions of dollars into supporting the Yemeni establishment, it is hard to believe that Houthis succeeded in organizing such a massive movement and fought a victorious war, as one analysts maintained, just by selling “pomegranates and grapes,” Saada’s major source of income.
...

The Houthis’ position might be explained by pointing to their lack of desire to stir up unnecessary resistance from inside and outside of the country against them, and that they do not seek to become the sole holder of power in Yemen. Hussein Al-Bukhaiti explains Houthis' realistic view of Yemen as follows:

“We cannot apply this [Iranian system] in Yemen because the followers of the Shafi [Sunni] doctrine are bigger in number than [us], the Zaidis [Shiite].”
CrowBat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 Day Ago   #110
davidbfpo
Council Member
 
davidbfpo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 8,503
Default A SEAL reflects on his Yemeni foxhole

From CTC Sentinel a short interview with:
Quote:
... the commander of Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) Forward (SOC FWD) in Yemen. SOC FWD was an extension of SOCCENT, part and parcel with the command in Tampa. It was a task force with minimal staff and a joint force that primarily trained and advised Yemeni partners, but we also conducted civil affairs and military information support operations. And we were deeply embedded with the embassy and their activities.
Link:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/a-vie...eign-relations

It has some insight on the byzantine nature of working with and not working with Yemeni partners.

His best line, with my emphasis:
Quote:
I am very concerned that we are pricing ourselves out of small wars.
That's almost a thread in itself!
__________________
davidbfpo
davidbfpo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
aqap, arab spring, coin planning, counter terrorism, counterterrorism, drones, yemen

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
EUCOM Economic Analysis - Part I AdamG Europe 505 3 Weeks Ago 10:52 AM
Africom Stands Up (Merged thread) Tom Odom Africa 366 01-01-2015 01:31 PM
The Egyptian-Yemen War Sarajevo071 Historians 1 04-15-2011 02:13 AM


All times are GMT. The time now is 11:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8. ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Registered Users are solely responsible for their messages.
Operated by, and site design © 2005-2009, Small Wars Foundation