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Thread: The Trump impact on US policy

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    Default Pentagon Prepares Tougher Options on Fighting Militants to Show Trump Team

    Pentagon Prepares Tougher Options on Fighting Militants to Show Trump Team

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  2. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    A set of tweets, storified here, explains some of the thinking behind the above blog post.
    I think you may find this book interesting

    http://www.polity.co.uk/book.asp?ref=9780745612690
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

    Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
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    Thank you. I see your point. I may revise my thesis to say all of that (what brought America down) and still say "the rot was not obvious until Muslims showed it to be the case".
    Something like that.
    Who knows, it may not even happen. As Saul Bellow said somewhere, we see the world falling apart, but it is not the world, it is us. We are getting old. Friends are dying, etc.
    It may be over for the rust belt, but maybe this is their last hurrah, not some sort of change of course. Trump will be followed by other Goldman Sachs Presidents. Life will go on.
    Who knows.
    Anyway, from a "world historical" perspective, what next?

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    I will throw out something that is swimming around in upper circles here in Europe that is of great concern across the EU.......

    Goes to the heart of the debate here....if one takes all the anti-Islamic/Muslim comments made by a lot of those being selected for Trump positions....take Trump's own comments....take those comments by say Bannon and Flynn...those comments from Mattis/Kelly.....on the same topic.....if we take the Muslim immigration comments by Trump and company and all of the "alt Right"...ie white supremacist social media sites on the same topic.......if we then couple it with the constant social media comments made by Trump supporters and the 600% increase in hate crimes across the US after the election....

    EU concern....are we seeing the possible beginnings of a US long term war with Islam?

    Not exactly far fetched....especially in light of the Trump comments about working together with Putin/Assad in Syria......
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 08:57 AM.

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    REALLY read and then reread again and again and then ask yourself is the Trump pick of Tillerson a good one for the US....????

    This @juliaioffe story on what it takes to be "a friend of Putin" explains all you need to know about Tillerson.
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...friend-214515#

    Written by someone who fully understands Russia...maybe she should be the next SoS....BUT WAIT she is a journalist thus not a friend of Trump since she does not work for Fox...Breitbart.com nor Infowars.....

  6. #186
    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    Thank you. I see your point. I may revise my thesis to say all of that (what brought America down) and still say "the rot was not obvious until Muslims showed it to be the case".
    Something like that.
    Who knows, it may not even happen. As Saul Bellow said somewhere, we see the world falling apart, but it is not the world, it is us. We are getting old. Friends are dying, etc.
    It may be over for the rust belt, but maybe this is their last hurrah, not some sort of change of course. Trump will be followed by other Goldman Sachs Presidents. Life will go on.
    Who knows.
    Anyway, from a "world historical" perspective, what next?
    Don't confuse how we got here with what will happen next. I believe that it is very possible that, based on the team Trump has assembled so far and his pension for looking for scapegoats when things go wrong, we could very will end up in a war with Islam, starting with Iran, once his economic policies fall flat. Worse, we will be going it alone, since all the other major players want to keep the Iranian Nuclear deal. He will do the same thing that Bush did; only accept intelligence that fits into his view of the world (if he even bothers to listen to the CIA now that they have openly said the Russians tried to manipulate the election in his favor).

    No, things can go south fast with Trump in the WH. But it won't be BECAUSE of Islam. It will be because of a serious of events that ended up allowing Trump to get into the WH, and then the catastrophic mistakes he makes once he is in.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 12-12-2016 at 03:30 PM.
    "I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."

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  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Don't confuse how we got here with what will happen next. I believe that it is very possible that, based on the team Trump has assembled so far and his pension for looking for scapegoats when things go wrong, we could very will end up in a war with Islam, starting with Iran, once his economic policies fall flat. Worse, we will be going it alone, since all the other major players want to keep the Iranian Nuclear deal. He will do the same thing that Bush did; only accept intelligence that fits into his view of the world (if he even bothers to listen to the CIA now that they have openly said the Russians tried to manipulate the election in his favor).

    No, things can go south fast with Trump in the WH. But it won't be BECAUSE of Islam. It will be because of a serious of events that ended up allowing Trump to get into the WH, and then the catastrophic mistakes he makes once he is in.
    Ah...a man after my heart.....if we make the assumption and I think it is a valid assumption based on the characters Trump is surrounding himself with that his statements before the election are really what he is going to due FP wise...

    We know the following.......

    1. although he claims to be for the common worker and he wants to increase jobs and pay...most of his economic team is either Goldman Sachs who profited massively from the housing crash and even bet against the US government since they had insider knowledge of the bad bundling of mortages...OR one is a corporate raider who bought sinking companies..stripped out the assets and then promptly fired the employees....OR someone who does not believe in the minimum wage for low income workers

    2. he claims to want good paying manufacturing jobs yet demands a 35 tariff on imports openly knowing the current global manufacturing works on a just in time process pulling components from around the entire globe thus driving up the overall consumer prices ...already indicated to happen by Wal Mart and Target and company

    2a. PLUS triggering potentially a massive trade war with 35% tariffs placed on exported US products and leading to overseas paid for US plants slowly shutting down...also losing jobs

    3. places someone into the EPA who does not believe in global warming thus no longer supporting the development of alternative energy sources which drives a modern manufacturing potential ie wind generators built in the US by US labor instead of coming from Germany......or solar cell roofs which would drive more installation jobs thus lowering the over all cost of electricity.....

    4. ALL of this in the face of a Trump who claimed he wanted more good paying manufacturig jobs.....

    NOW let's get onto to the potential Trump FP

    1. he wants to export more US products into China..cut back Chinese imports...place a 35% tariff on products coming to the US from China AND he wants to have China change it's currency rates......

    NOTE...every thing previous US governments tried and failed at.....

    2. then he clearly signalled a new approach to Taiwan claiming it was just a congrats call.....sure......
    AND the Chinese response....they flew for the first time a Chinese AF nuclear bomber through the entire South China Sea......

    3. IF we take the combined statements of Trump and those that he has selected including Bannon and Flynn...WE will have a war with Islam....BTW this also includes Mattis as well.....

    4. NATO....he has basically walked away from Article 5...when he stated unless NATO pays the US is not interested in defending NATO.....

    5. Russian annexation of Crimea...Trump during the campaign voiced the opinion that it was possible that Crimea did in fact legally voted in a Referendum to join Russia......

    6. Check the Republican Party plaform on Ukraine....totally proRussian position ..directly oppostion many of his own Party in Congress

    7. International treaties ie Iran..he states he will redo them.......

    8. International trade treaties...he will either drop them and or redo them...that will never happen.....

    9. TPP..he will drop it allowing China to firmly control the trade of the entire Pacific Rim.

    10. TTIP and CETA....he will lose the opportunity for the US to trade freely with a 750M person marketplace denying more well paid manufacturing jobs and thousands of jobs associated with increased trade.....

    11. Russian info and cyber warfare...does not exist........

    12. Russian violations of INF...START and OSCE Agreements....does not exist for Trump....as Putin is his best friend and best friends do not do those things....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 05:55 PM.

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    Conservative Trump supporters reminding Dems of their navet about Putin, while ignoring what their man and his appointees think of Putin.

    BUT WAIT........Trump invited a hostile foreign power to hack and publish his opponent’s emails. It’s on video.

    Huge sleeper story: House GOP just gave Trump full control of VOA/RFE/RL, ability to broadcast propaganda worldwide.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.bf4e6ee7b4f3

    NOW AGAIN...exacty WHY was Bannon selected for "strategic messaging"........Brietbart.com and Infowars on steronids
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 05:59 PM.

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    Five unanswered questions about Russia's election hacking:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...utm_source=twb

    Exactly which institutions did the Russians hack?

    When did the hacks occur?

    Was there coordination?

    Are there financial ties?

    Where else has Russia intervened using the same exact tactics?


    BUT WAIT...based on Trump's own Fox comments...NONE of this ever occurred and he blatantly attacked the CIA....WHO is responsible for defending all of the US from enemies near and far

    USING the sad excuse that "he is a smart person".....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 06:06 PM.

  10. #190
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    APPEARS Republicans are in open revolt against Trump.......
    McConnell: “It defies belief” some Senate Republicans are reluctant to "review Russian tactics or ignore them”

    Donald Trump Loses Mitch McConnell, Who Wants to Dig Into Russian Hacking
    http://thebea.st/2gsS9ar via @thedailybeast



    Appears Pual Ryan is also disagreeing with his new boss......

    Our Intelligence Committee has been working diligently on cyber threats to the US. This important work will continue & has my support.



    Breaking: #China flew nuke-capable H-6 bombers over #SouthChinaSea Dec 7 & 8, first time flew full length of “9-dash line”-US Def Official

    This area includes #Taiwan & along with China's votes in UNSC against US on #Syria could very well be not-too-subtle msgs to PEOTUS Trump
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 06:16 PM.

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    Donald J. Trump Verifizierter Account 
    ‏@realDonaldTrump
    Unless you catch "hackers" in the act, it is very hard to determine who was doing the hacking. Why wasn't this brought up before election?


    It was brought up before the election in the very public Oct statement by DNI & DHS expressing confidence #Russia behind hacks



    APPARENTLY Trump did not know this.......

    Report: Russian cyberattacks on Clinton camp continued until Election Day


    http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecur...xXefgs.twitter
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 06:18 PM.

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    The difference between @bellingcat & DNC / RNC hack was the latter had #GRU operatives on ground, assisting.

    https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/808363689653010433

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    NOW THINGS ARE GETTING SERIOUS


    BREAKING: Clinton campaign backs call for intelligence briefing before Electoral College vote… via @politico


    http://www.politico.com

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    The Kremlin Would Be Proud of Trump's Propaganda Playbook
    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...aganda-tactics

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    Trump Declares War on the Intelligence Community
    http://observer.com/2016/12/trump-de...llcZgg.twitter

    I have been privy to the analysis work done by two top US private security companies tasked with the hacking forensics.....it was Russia right up to the election as we were tracking their activities on this side of the Atlantic for several European interested partners.....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 12-12-2016 at 10:10 PM. Reason: Edited to remove passage beyond ToR.

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    BREAKING: White House: No doubt Trump benefitted from Russian hacking
    http://hill.cm/qAaZHrj

    WH spox: Don't need security clearance to see: Results of hack & leak op attacking Clinton–carried out on orders of #Russia–benefited Trump.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 12-12-2016 at 07:33 PM.

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    Trump involved in Insider trading....????????

    Someone started dumping Lockheed Martin stock just before Trump's tweet. Can someone else please verify my findings.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    BTW....just a side note.....the computer I am using this evening while connected to the net at a customer site uses a very good detection system to spot when a hacker is ever so slowly attempting to connect and montior all ongoing comms.....using a falsified security certificate....a typical MS weak point....

    Blocked it...will be interestig to see if he attempts it again before I sign off for the evening.....the core problem is one cannot state who was attempting to connect....as the tools needed to analyze are not on this computer.....

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    Here’s What America Needs to Know About Trump and Russia

    By Evelyn Farkas
    | December 12, 2016

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...to-know-214520

    Continued.....

    I've worked in the defense community for the last 20 years, the past 3 years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia. Over that time, my colleagues and I have watched Russian cyber-operations become far more ambitious and insidious. They've moved from technical denial-of-service attacks – targeting Estonia in 2007, Georgia in 2008 and against Ukraine’s internet and cellular phone networks in 2014 and electrical grid a year later – to use of cyber spying and release of captured information to influence publics, including their own. In 2014, during U.S. and European Union negotiations to build a transitional government in Ukraine, Russia made public a wiretapped conversation between my colleagues Assistant Secretary Toria Nuland and the U.S. Ambassador in Ukraine, Geoff Pyatt, during which Nuland is heard saying “#### the E.U.” The objective was to embarrass U.S. officials and increase tension between them and their European Union counterparts.

    I watched as Russia funded far-right and far-left political parties in Western and Eastern Europe (most notably in France and Hungary), as well as NGOs and used its economic influence (especially in oil and gas) to pressure European politicians to support Kremlin objectives. This fall we saw Moscow continue to intervene in other nations' politics, funding pro-Russian political parties in Moldova, and sponsoring demonstrations against that country's pro-Western government. This week the head of the German domestic intelligence agency warned: "We see aggressive and increased cyber spying and cyber operations that could potentially endanger German government officials, members of parliament and employees of democratic parties."

    We know from the most senior intelligence officials that the Russian government hacks and transfer of information to Wikileaks were conducted at a minimum to cause Americans to lose faith in their political process, and at a maximum to increase the odds that Trump could win the election. And we should heed their words: As a close consumer of intelligence on Russia for 3 critical years, I know our intelligence on Russia, unlike that on North Korea, for example, is excellent.

    Given Russia's capabilities and its recent patterns, it is not at all far-fetched to ask whether Trump is indeed the “puppet” Secretary Clinton mockingly named him in the second presidential debate. Is he financially and politically beholden to Russians close to the government and to the Kremlin itself? If so, is he prepared to accommodate Putin’s interests? Should we expect a robust "reset," in the tense relationship between the two countries, perhaps one that even compromises U.S. interests, like the stability of its allies in Europe, and American values, like democracy and human rights? If the Trump administration attempts one, it is worth noting that whatever the US gives up would likely be very temporary: for domestic political reasons, Putin needs the United States as its public enemy, given Russia’s current and foreseeable economic situation, and Russian presidential elections are coming up in 2018.

    Today, we already have enough clues and too much undisclosed information to warrant worry about the puppet scenario. There are signs the Trump campaign was involved in coordinating this release of hacked information – then-advisor Carter Page’s trips and meetings in Moscow, and Russian statements that they were in touch with the campaign. And of course, Trump publicly called on the Russian government to continue hacking Hillary Clinton’s computers during a televised campaign appearance. His campaign dismissed it as a joke; it's not clear everyone did. It may be too much to say that the Kremlin and Russian secret services put Trump on the path to seeking the presidency, but they certainly contributed to getting him there – even perhaps, to their surprise.

    Since the elections, various senior Russian officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, have asserted that they’ve had ongoing conversations with the Trump camp. Trump spokesperson Heather Hicks has denied this. If the Russians officials in this "he said / she said" game aren't lying, it raises the question about what they are discussing or planning.

    We know, per Donald Trump, Jr., that Russians make up a significant amount of the family business. What we don’t know is how much Russian money is involved, and what Russian money. How did Donald Trump get out of debt? To whom does he owe money? Who provides the collateral for his loans? Is he beholden to Russian oligarchs and banks who are under the thumb of the Kremlin and Russian security services?

    If these relationships do exist, the basic foreign policy implication is that Donald Trump as president will seek to accommodate Vladimir Putin's objectives: equal status between the United States and Russia; a 19th century sphere of influence for Russia in Europe/Eurasia/Central Asia; and acceptance of brutal non-democratic dictators even in the face of their people's nonviolent attempts to force them from power. And the United States is unlikely to retaliate against Russian cyberattacks, and may not maintain strong deterrence against Russian violations of air, sea and space protocols for military behavior.

    In Europe, this would mean no further NATO enlargement and no military or other assistance to non-NATO states like Ukraine and Georgia that are occupied in part by Russian forces and trying to maintain their political and economic sovereignty. It would likely arrest the movement toward democracy and free-market capitalism. In the Middle East it would mean letting the brutal dictator Bashar al Asad try to rule Syria by force, with Russia and Iran helping.

    The result would be more insecurity – Eastern and Western European states would start looking out for their own interests, arming unilaterally and weakening NATO and further dividing the European Union. With collective security diminished, and the chance of American resistance significantly reduced, Russia may be tempted to test NATO countries by sending security forces into the Baltics to protect ethnic Russians or by conducting risky military maneuver in NATO air or maritime space. If conflict were to break out among major European powers – collectively our top trading partner, and individually our closest allies – U.S. basic interests would be impacted. If America chose to side with Russia over our European allies, that would be a repudiation of U.S. interests and values. In the Syria, the final crushing of the conventional opposition forces would spell the dawn of a bitter and destabilizing insurgency against Assad, Iran and Russia.

    For the homeland, the failure to respond to Russian cyber-interference and to establish and maintain military deterrence against attacks on U.S. military and civilian infrastructure will make us less safe. There will be a greater temptation for the Russian government to use cyber and other means to disrupt normal life in America for smaller stakes, like getting sanctions lifted or retaliating against the Magnitsky human rights law. Being cooperative in this area will only make America weak, coupled as it will be by mutual distrust between our militaries and the conventional and nuclear balances between us.

    For a lot of Americans, this whole Russian-intervention scenario may seem farfetched. And political scientists and former policymakers like myself know not to jump to conclusions based on a few data points, and on the significant questions Donald Trump has refused to answer. It is also possible that the somber professional cabinet members like Jim Mattis and John Kelly will successfully advocate for U.S. interests, and the Trump circle's evident impulses to accommodate Putin will be effectively countered or moderated.

    Nonetheless, there's already plenty to worry about. Nothing like this level of foreign interference in American democracy has even been imagined in modern political history. So before we even get to interagency debates on Russia, before the president-elect takes the oath, the American people deserve to know what the intelligence community knows about his business history and entanglements with Russians and Russia.

    The intelligence community, especially the CIA, will be loath to reveal too much lest their sources and methods are compromised. But if our worst fears are realized, Trump has knowingly benefited from Kremlin help, those means may be jeopardized by the next administration anyway. His team would be motivated to eliminate means of collection and analysis and of informing others in the executive branch or Congress. As the public and legislators press for more clarity, there are a handful of specific questions they need to focus on:

    1) What did Russia do to interfere in U.S. elections?

    2) Did any American citizens collude with Russia to assist in the Kremlin’s efforts to interfere in U.S. elections? If so how, and were Trump associates, or Trump himself, aware?

    3) Have Russians given or loaned Donald Trump and/or his businesses money, or provided collateral or other financial assistance to Donald Trump?

    If the answers yield further evidence that the president-elect is indebted to the Russian government or individuals with Kremlin ties, the intelligence community and policy officials should also begin disclosing what they know about whether Trump's associates have been in contact with Russian officials, and what they've been discussing.

    Continued......

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Don't confuse how we got here with what will happen next. I believe that it is very possible that, based on the team Trump has assembled so far and his pension for looking for scapegoats when things go wrong, we could very will end up in a war with Islam, starting with Iran, once his economic policies fall flat. Worse, we will be going it alone, since all the other major players want to keep the Iranian Nuclear deal. He will do the same thing that Bush did; only accept intelligence that fits into his view of the world (if he even bothers to listen to the CIA now that they have openly said the Russians tried to manipulate the election in his favor).

    No, things can go south fast with Trump in the WH. But it won't be BECAUSE of Islam. It will be because of a serious of events that ended up allowing Trump to get into the WH, and then the catastrophic mistakes he makes once he is in.
    The next Trump move? Will play very badly across the Muslim world. And be a great gift to Daesh and their likes.
    http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.758560

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