Northern Ireland (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC:

As Northern Ireland sees an upsurge in dissident republican attacks, here are some of the most serious incidents to take place since March 2009.

Includes a small map, photos; alas without a link to previous reports for more details:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-10866072

A recent arrest operation explained, with two charged over possession of a 0.22 cal. rifle:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-14421746

[davidbfpo]

A different outlook on achieving peace in Ulster / Northern Ireland in a short paper by ICSR's John Bew, entitled 'Collective Amnesia and the Northern Ireland Model of Conflict Resolution' and concludes in part:

. In summary, therefore, this paper stresses two dimensions of the Northern Ireland story, which are often sidelined in the prevailing narratives – the unpalatable and the boring.

Later on:

Rather than discuss the ‘lessons’, what I am primarily interested in is the ‘what happened’ side of things. Above all, I want to question the influential and oft-stated idea that the magic solution in Northern Ireland – and the key lesson for the rest of the world – was that ‘talking to terrorists’....

Link:http://icsr.info/news/attachments/13...IdeasPaper.pdf

[davidbfpo]

I missed the initial report last Friday:

The officer is an Irish language specialist for the PSNI and captain of the PSNI GAA team. Mr Heffron has been in the police for 10 years and recently married. He is related to a senior Sinn Fein member.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8457169.stm

[jmm99]

from the Kerry GAA (better the Cork GAA, but one has to take online what one gets):

Post by flemishgael on Jan 11, 2010, 11:00am

worst of all is that is most likey dissident republicans who are responsible.

I would understand it if they would target the actual PSNI HQ but they do not have the courage for that. Though I understand the sentiments of dissident republicans I do believ that the time for carbombs is long over.

Sinn Féin are being criticized for selling out and actively supporting discussions regarding policing but I think that if they really want a long lasting peace that is only to be applauded.

The torunament between the London Met, PSNi, an Garda Siochana and NYPD is a very good event and a huge step forward.

This is definitely a step back.

I go to Randalstown often to ride horses since a friend of mine is involved with the local ponyclub there and since Peadar was stationed in West Belfast it is likely I have seen or met him recently.

It is a cowardly attack on a young man with his whole life still in front of him.

He just married and was planning a family. It's disgusting!

And, similar sentiments were voiced by the Sinn Fein group of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness (from Irish Republican News):

...
Oglaigh na hEireann said it had planted the bomb which exploded under the car of a PSNI Irish language specialist as he drove to work on Friday morning.
...
Last year, Mr Heffron was the main spokesman at an extraordinary meeting of the Policing Board in Derry conducted in Irish.

During the meeting he delivered a talk on the importance of Catholics joining Britain’s police force in Ireland.

“There is undoubtedly a challenge before the PSNI to promote a career or profession in the PSNI in a community where such a possibility would have been impossible a few years ago,” he said at the time.

He was [sic! is] also a cousin of Sinn Fein national chairman Declan Kearney and Ciaran Kearney, Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams’s secretary.
...
Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness said: “The man injured today in this attack contributes positively to the community.

“The people who carried out this attack make no contribution.

“These actions serve no purpose and will not further any cause.

“My thoughts are with the injured man and his family. I pray he makes a full recovery.”

And, more recently (7 Feb 2012), Martin McGuinness asks for prayers for Ian Paisley and family. The prayers seem to be working (BBC)

Most have come a long way from the 1920 wall graffiti: "Join the RAF, and see the World. Join the RIC, and see the Next". Some still remain fixed in that time warp.

And, David, you will check those years again.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Last month was the annual 'Marching Season' in Northern Ireland, when the potential for inter-communal skirmishing is high, this year it was largely avoided and mobs in a few places clashed with the police.

There have been a few bomb and gun attacks by dissident nationalists on the PSNI; alongside an announced merger of such groups, minus two of them:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-19009272

The response of Sinn Fein North Belfast MLA Gerry Kelly:

"They come together and go apart almost as a matter of course"....He said that collectively the dissident groups had "actually killed more civilians and people from their own community than those they would call the enemy...I have an absolute belief in dialogue. I don't want to see more people being killed"

The scene is not set for a good article 'The long war gets longer: the campaign of violent dissident republicans', which explains how violence lingers on, taking some diversions to faraway experiences:

Why then do they persist?...Dissident republicans are also practised in making the facts fit within a set understanding of the world....In this scenario, they are not dissenting, or resiling, from the core republican narrative; rather it is Sinn Fein that has deserted the cause, and, by accepting the six county state, it is Sinn Fein who have become the dissenters.

This is a classic IMHO claim to legitimacy:

When asked in a Channel 4 interview if the military campaign did not require a degree of support at the ballot box, the Republican Sinn Fein spokesperson Cait Trainor replied “Certainly not. We have a mandate stretching right back to 1798. We really don’t need the public to rubber stamp the republican movement.” (Channel 4 News, 24/9/2010).

[jmm99]

That has been the theme from Charles William St. John Burgess in 1922 (of the first IRA splinter group, from which all others are descended) to 2012 Cait Trainor.

They have "legitimacy" only to themselves.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Three interesting developments in cross-border relations.

The prime minister of the Republic of Ireland and his deputy have taken part in Remembrance Sunday services in Northern Ireland......Hundreds of people gathered at the (Enniskillen) war memorial where 25 years ago an IRA bomb killed 11 people.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20286788

It is 25 years since the Enniskillen attack:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20245308

Earlier:

On 1 July, the Irish Minister for Transport, Alan Kelly, became the first member of the Republic's government to take part in the annual Somme commemorations at Belfast City Hall.....Soldiers from the 36th (Ulster) and 16th (Irish) divisions fought in the battle between 1 July and 13 November 1916.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20264639

Sinn Fein still stays away from such commemorations.

Simon Coveney has become the first Irish government minister to attend and address a DUP conference.....who is the Irish Republic's agriculture minister...further proof of the increasing trust among politicians in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20451361

The decision to invite a member of the Irish cabinet to speak at this weekend's party conference is the latest sign of changing times in Northern Ireland. When Ian Paisley founded the DUP 40 years ago, the party's attitude to co-operation with the Irish government was, to use his own phrase, "never, never, never".

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20473710

The venue was the La Mon hotel - where twelve people were killed and many more badly burned on 17 February 1978 - in a PIRA bombing.

[davidbfpo]

Not unexpected, but still a reminder that some events are not being laid to rest; the BBC News report's title:

Bloody Sunday: Soldiers face questions in police murder investigation

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-norther...-west-20794517

The investigation will take an estimated four years, partly due to the complexity of the incident in 1972 and the evidence given to the Saville Enquiry (which took 12 yrs) cannot be used in a prosecution, so new witness statements are required. It will be interesting to see if such co-operation is gained from all those involved.

[jmm99]

A succinct summary of Ulster's flag problem by the NY Times, New Violence in Belfast May Be About More Than the Flag (By JOHN F. BURNS, January 18, 2013).

First, a very short backgrounder (skipping past the violence summary to its immediate cause):

The crisis began modestly enough. The Belfast council, its pro-British members outvoted by a coalition of republicans and a small liberal bloc, decided in early December to limit the flag flying to 18 days a year, as specified by London for all of Britain. Through the decades when the council was dominated by Protestant unionists, committed to links with Britain, the flag flew from the pinnacle of the building every day of the year.
...
Under Britain’s strict rules about flying the national standard on public and private buildings, not even the Parliament buildings in London fly it on any but government-designated days. But the hauling down of the Belfast flag provoked a furious reaction, the most protracted period of unrest in many years in Northern Ireland. ...

The underlying reason for the council's flag-limiting majority having a majority lies in demographics:

They say the council’s decision on the flag, made possible by the fact that nationalists now hold 24 seats on the council, compared with 21 for the unionists, reflects the rapid growth of the Catholic population in the years since the Good Friday agreement, unsettling the long-held assumption among unionists that Protestants would constitute a permanent majority in the province.

The most recent census results, released last year, showed that 48 percent listed themselves as Protestant or brought up Protestant, down 5 percentage points from the 2001 census, while 45 percent of the population listed themselves as Catholic or brought up Catholic, a 1 percentage point rise. In Belfast, many say, Catholics are already a majority or nearly so and could form a majority across the province within a decade.

Since the Good Friday agreement specified that the province would remain part of Britain as long as a majority of the province’s people and of the population of the whole of Ireland wished it to be, the reasoning goes, Protestants who are resolved never to accept a united Ireland could be right in seeing the flag dispute as a harbinger of their worst fears.

The top two political leaders spoke out against the demonstrations:

With no end in sight, leaders of the power-sharing government have voiced anxiety that the protests, by whipping up antagonism among Protestants, could threaten the peace process. But the top two officials in the power-sharing administration — Peter Robinson, the unionist first minister, and Martin McGuinness, the republican first deputy minister, who is Mr. Robinson’s effective coequal — vowed in the province’s assembly on Monday that their commitment to the peace agreement would not be shaken.

Mr. Robinson was unsparing in his rebuke to the protesters.

Mr. McGuinness, a former chief of staff of the Irish Republican Army, seemed eager not to draw sectarian comfort from the turmoil in the unionists’ political base.

The demonstrations are of far more substance (in the larger picture of Northern Ireland) than the "splinter IRA" actions over the past couple of years.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Mike,

Apologies for the delayed response, hopefully it will have been worthwhile.

I don't dispute the facts in report, it is the explanation on offer - which led you to conclude:

The demonstrations are of far more substance (in the larger picture of Northern Ireland) than the "splinter IRA" actions over the past couple of years.

First of all yes all politics in Northern Ireland is incredibly "tribal" to outsiders. So we wonder why the decision by a majority of Belfast City Council led to a series of violent outbreaks. After all we are told the standard national flag display regulations are simply being followed. Symbols are a vital part of daily life, differing symbols too.

Significantly the violence, from those who declare themselves Loyalists, is confined to a very small number of hotspots, principally around the Short Strand in East Belfast. Short Strand is a small Nationalist enclave amidst a vast swathe of Belfast that is Protestant, so there a potential for inter-communal tension and disorder (and demands for defence solidarity from other Nationalists). This link helps as it has a map and more:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21028811

So why this concentration and the accusations that one Loyalist paramilitary faction, the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF, who are on a ceasefire) are behind the disorders? Part of the answer comes in the statement made by the PSNI Chief Constable now two weeks ago:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20929658

Thanks now to a helper. There is a current "super grass" trial about to start or indeed under-way, where a former UVF 'brigadier' will give evidence against his former comrades - he is charged with a sectarian murder in 1997 - and they fear the investigations by the HIAT will lead to more trials. See:http://www.belfastdaily.co.uk/2012/1...eased-on-bail/

The suggested explanation is that the violence is part of a campaign against the use of "super grass" evidence in the current case and any future court cases.

Note the same newspaper reports larger scale demonstrations if those involved in the recent disorder are identified, arrested and charged: http://www.belfastdaily.co.uk/2013/0...scale-arrests/

(Note I am not aware of this newspaper's bona fides etc. It does appear to "stir up" a lot).

It is a sad fact that a tiny minority amongst the Loyalist population are effectively spoiling for a confrontation, if not a fight or more likely what is called "recreational rioting". This minority is trying to pull in others and to discourage any opposition from the vast majority of Loyalists, hence the statement of the First Minister and note the other Loyalist paramilitary group, the UDA:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-21003296

Yes demography is changing in Northern Ireland. For sometime now the western half of the province has had a potentially Nationalist voting Catholic majority. Some argue that since 1998 the labels of religion and politics are no longer so powerful - peace is wanted by almost all.

I would contend that the activities of the violent nationalist fringe is at a far higher level of lethality, as shown in their attacks on the police. For several reasons this new generation are harder to "catch & convict". They are a mix of "old hands" and youngsters who were born after 'The Troubles', which ended in 1998 with the Good Friday Agreement.

[jmm99]

David,

I'll grant you that focus on the law enforcement aspect in Ulster requires a focus on the violence level, especially those attacks targeting police officers. We have no argument as to that point of view taken separately.

However, my focus was on the political picture, in both North and South. In that portrait, demographics play a huge role - especially the apparent trend toward future demographics. Still, demographics are not the overriding factor that will overcome all else. One has to take into account the perceptions and beliefs of the Ulster Unionists (which underlie the demonstrations).

Thus, I concluded:

The demonstrations are of far more substance (in the larger picture of Northern Ireland) than the "splinter IRA" actions over the past couple of years.

Those demonstrations (leaving aside the violence) are based on deeply-held Unionist beliefs, as the Ulsterman from Shankill Road states:

On a stretch of the road punctuated with memorials to Protestants killed in the Troubles and to Ulstermen who died in World War I, Paul Shaw, 33, owner of the Shankill Band Shop, boasted of doing a roaring trade during the upheaval, selling thousands of flags and other loyalist memorabilia, including DVDs of patriotic songs sung by Ulstermen on the battlefields of the Somme.

“It’s our flag, our identity; it’s been flown above City Hall every day since 1906, and it’s being stripped from us,” he said. With nods from others clustered around him, he compared the flag battle to the fighting on the Somme. “If we lose this one, we’ll have a united Ireland in 5 or 10 years, and we won’t accept it,” he said. “We’ll die to defend the flag. If we have to, we’ll go back to the graveyards and the jails.”

His perceptions (and fears) were certainly fortified in the days of Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution of Ireland [1937-1999 version], which provided:

2. The national territory consists of the whole island of Ireland, its islands and the territorial seas.

3. Pending the re-integration of the national territory, and without prejudice to the right of the [Irish] parliament and [Irish Republican] government established by this constitution to exercise jurisdiction over the whole territory, the laws enacted by the [Irish] parliament shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws of Saorstat Eireann [Irish Free State] and the like extra-territorial effect.

Needless to say, those provisions (especially Article 2) were an "in the face" to Ulster Unionists.

For the post-WWI constitutional history of Ulster, see R.W. McGimpsey, Northern Ireland And The Irish Constitution: Pragmatism Or Principle? - :the McGimpsey Case (2010)(182 pp.). The McGimpsey Case was brought by two Ulstermen (the McGimpsey brothers) in the Irish Supreme Court to force Southern consideration of a better approach by the South to the North than the high-handed force of Articles 2 and 3.

The Good Friday Agreement required a Southern referendum on what became the Nineteenth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland.

The referendum requirement was a Unionist incentive to eliminate the unacceptable language of Articles 2 and 3. The Southern referendum passed with 94% of the vote.

Thus, the resultant clauses ended up as follows:

Substitution of new Articles 2 and 3

2. It is the entitlement and birthright of every person born in the island of Ireland, which includes its islands and seas, to be part of the Irish nation. That is also the entitlement of all persons otherwise qualified in accordance with law to be citizens of Ireland. Furthermore, the Irish nation cherishes its special affinity with people of Irish ancestry living abroad who share its cultural identity and heritage.

3.1. It is the firm will of the Irish nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

3.2. Institutions with executive powers and functions that are shared between those jurisdictions may be established by their respective responsible authorities for stated purposes and may exercise powers and functions in respect of all or any part of the island.

I expect the "majority vote" requirement is the best known of the new Articles 2 and 3. That requirement is where demographics come into play. If the future demographics of all Northern Ireland resemble those of the present Belfast City Council (and they are trending that way), it is possible that a Northern referendum would approve unification. Note that would be a narrow vote of approval, which might not be acceptable to the South.

One may have misplaced faith in assuming the South's automatic approval of unification. The North is not exactly an economic prize, especially given the South's own problems. Add in the real threat of a Unionist insurgency, and all bets would be off. The South is not going to risk a repeat of Four Courts and the 1922-1923 Irish Civil War; nor, is it any more likely to march North than Hubert Gough was in 1914.

The key, of course, is whether the language "in all the diversity of their identities and traditions" will have real meaning in application - and will be perceived as such by the various hyphenated Irish: Anglo-Irish, Gaelic-Irish, Norman-Irish and Scots-Irish. Giving real meaning to those fine sounds requires acceptance of the 36th (Ulster) Division, the Orange Sash, the 12th of July as it yearly doth come, etc. ... And, of course, to be able to chuckle one's way through the lyrics of The Old Orange Flute.

In the county Tyrone, in the town of Dungannon
Where many a ruckus meself had a hand in
Bob Williamson lived there, a weaver by trade
And all of us thought him a stout-hearted blade.

On the twelfth of July as it yearly did come
Bob played on the flute to the sound of the drum
You can talk of your fiddles, your harp or your lute
But there's nothing could sound like the Old Orange Flute.

But the treacherous scoundrel, he took us all in
For he married a Papish named Bridget McGinn
Turned Papish himself and forsook the Old Cause
That gave us our freedom, religion and laws.

... (and on and on) ...

I conclude that the Ulster Unionists who make their points via speech and demonstrations (but by eschewing violence) are exercising smart politics.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Mike,

Nor should one assume that all Catholics / Nationalists would actually vote for a united Ireland. Indeed in some elections it has been quite clear there has been voting across the communal divide; even the Rev. Ian Paisley (when a MP) had a following, more for his known hard work for all constituents, rather than what he said.

I can recall sometime ago Unionists referring to how the Protestant minority in Eire had steadily diminished since 1921 and today had little "clout".

One of the spin-off's from The Good Friday Agreement in 1998 has been the change of the Irish official and public attitude to the commemoration of all those who fell in the World Wars. The Queen's visit to Eire being the most notable illustration of the changing attitude.

[davidbfpo]

A commentary from RUSI, which opens with:

Are the latest violent disturbances in Northern Ireland a serious threat to the decade-long peace process? Not necessarily, but the flags issue is a distraction from deeper underlying social problems; such as poverty and entrenched sectarianism.

The author, Margaret Gilmore, does not refer to the "super grass" trial factor, but notes:

Elsewhere in Northern Ireland the UFV has with some lesser exceptions managed to keep the lid on the trouble - persuading members to stick to non-violent protest.

Link:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment.../#.UQu2Mh26eSo

[jmm99]

Assuming arguendo that Ms Gilmore is bang on point with her "deeper underlying social problems; such as poverty and entrenched sectarianism," one (rather important, don't you think) question is under which flag (the British flag, the Irish flag or an Ulster flag) will those problems be better ameliorated.

If Ms Gilmore's basic argument is really "why can't we all just get along", her name should be Pollyanna.

The "flag issue" is symbolic - lots of things in politics are symbolic.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

The union that represents rank and file police officers in Northern Ireland, the Police Federation chairman, Terry Spence, said:

There has been a tactical operational failure in how we first handled these public order confrontations....To put it bluntly, we were policing public order in Northern Ireland according to guidelines more appropriate for the rest of the UK..

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-22781555

In reply Deputy Chief Constable Judith Gillespie:

There are things that, perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, if we'd known this was going to go on for so long, if we'd known that certain things were going to happen in between, of course there are things we might have done differently....But at a strategic level I'm confident we were doing the right things.

Just as the UK is mobilising police officers from the 'mainland' to assist the PSNI.