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  1. #1
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default The problem, Wilf, is that

    ...and if you think about it, this question falls outside the realm of military thought. This is one for diplomats, not soldiers, or military theorists.
    I've not only thought about it, I've been able to live it. During that life, it came to my attention as a soldier, not a theorist, that I went a lot of places and did a lot of things that were militarily unsound and strategically inane, even borderline stupid and not at all in the realm of soldiers but that the politicians and diplomats wanted a presence or something done so soldiers went. And did what the civilians wanted to be done...

    Democracies are messy that way.
    Then they become good criminals not bad criminals. Actually I don't see any grown up western democracy supporting any insurgency these days. Sure there was the Bay of Pigs, the Contras and the Mujahaddin, but would there be in a post 9/11 world? Are they acting against a democracy or a dictatorship?
    To quote Sir Sean Connery, "Never say never..."

    Democracies are messy that way.

    I think Ron has it right.

  2. #2
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I've not only thought about it, I've been able to live it. During that life, it came to my attention as a soldier, not a theorist, that I went a lot of places and did a lot of things that were militarily unsound and strategically inane, even borderline stupid and not at all in the realm of soldiers but that the politicians and diplomats wanted a presence or something done so soldiers went. And did what the civilians wanted to be done...
    Cannot disagree. My whole foundation of military theory started with the premise that everything I had learnt as a soldier was unsound and nonsensical. Now, 5-7 years later, I have reduce it to about 25% of what I leant was unsound or nonsensical.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  3. #3
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Thumbs up I can buy that figure. I'll also note that,

    as I'm sure you've discovered, some of that which was earlier considered by me to be nonsense actually had a sound and logical basis but just hadn't been modified to cope with societal and technological differences. All that was required was minor tweaking.

    Discovered also that if you can point out truly nonsensical thing to the right person (and that is critical, the wrong one will do nothing) things can get changed.

    Years ago, US Army track vehicle mechanics were trained at Forts Knox (on tanks) and Sill (on self propelled guns) as well as Aberdeen Proving Ground (on APCs). Problem was that they all ended up with the same MOS (job code) and one could be in a Mech Infantry Battalion and have a slew of SP Artillery mechanics who couldn't spell APC. Years of complaint up the chain were to no avail -- until De Puy, then the TRADOC CG was briefed on it in a Motor Pool in Korea. Got fixed in a matter of weeks and all Track mechanics went to Knox to learn all the systems.

    The moral of that story is the chain of command is important -- but sometimes (often? ) you have to short circuit it to get things done. Carefully, of course -- but unhesitatingly...

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    Steve:

    I think I can see which way this is going to pan out........

    Please bear with me...


    Scene, a street in Bahdad, Ahmad the garbage man has been stopped and surrounded by an American patrol.

    Patrol Leader (Through interpreter): Now Mr. Ahmad, on a scale of One to Five, with five being I completely agree and One being completely disagree, would you say your involvement in Jihad is formal and complex?

    Ahmad: I ain't got no involvement in jihad, the empty 155 shells in the truck are on there way to the scrap metal dealer, I picked them up yesterday, they were doorstops at Sadaams old place.

    Patrol Leader: So thats a One? Strongly disagree? So that makes question Two, informal links to Jihad a Five?

    Ahmad: Look I just said I don't do Jihad!

    Patrol Leader: The logic of my procedure here is laid out in black and white, "If the answer to question one is one, then the answer to question Two is Five", Here, read it yourself.

    Ahmad: Look I can't read English and I don't do jihad, you want the 155 shells?

    Patrol Leader: Now Ahmad, concentrate, on a scale of One to Five, how would you rate your attention to your religion?

    Ahmad: Look I have a bad back that stops me praying a lot at the Mosque, put me down as a Two and a Half.

    Patrol Leader: That will have to be rounded up to a three according to the procedure. Now Ahmad, Why are you doing this work? Are you doing this work out of friendship, or for Allah? On a scale of One to Five, how would you rate your motivation for this work?

    Ahmad: Are you kidding? Before the war I was an architect specialising in palaces, but now all I can get is this crummy job, make that a One.

    Patrol Leader: Now Ahmad, are all garbage workers like you? How would you rate the homogeniety of your fellow workers?

    Ahmad: Homo-what? Oh I understand, yes we are all members of the union but we do have different backgrounds, make that a Four.

    Patrol leader: And Ahmad, do you think you are goal driven or not, please, on a scale of One to Five...

    Ahmad: Are you kidding? My goal is to get the heck out of here and work as an architect for Donald Trump in New York. Make that a Five!

    Patrol Leader: And are you tightly or loosely bound to this goal?

    Ahmad: Go ask my wife! She is always nagging me to get her out of here, make that a Five!

    Patrol Leader: Now Ahmad, think carefully, have you ever threatened anyone?

    Ahmad; Me? Who is there for a garbage worker to threaten? Thats a One.

    Patrol Leader: Have you ever been violent Ahmad?

    Ahmad: I beat the crap out of a cousin once when I was twelve. He stole my football.

    Patrol Leader: I'll just consult the matrix here, just a second,,,, Wow! That comes in as a Four!

    Patrol Leader: Now Ahmad, do you work on your own?

    Ahmad: Yep, most of the time, no one else wants this stinking job.

    Patrol Leader: Thats a Five. Almost finished now, and Ahmad, are you linked with any organisations?

    Ahmad: Sure! I'm a member of the Baghdad garbage workers union, local #27. The Sadr city lions club and the Baghdad football club.


    Patrol Leader: Three affiliations, thats also a four according to the tables. Now bear with me for a minute Ahmad while I total up the points on this form and calculate your T-Score...

    Ahmad: Thank God thats over, I need to get these to the depot and then go shopping for my wife's birthday.

    Patrol Leader; Mr. Ahmad, I'm sorry to have to inform you that your T-Score is 88.5 which means that there is a high probability you are a senior Al Qaeeda leader! Guys! Cuff him and take him in!


    informal/simple ------------ formal/complex
    nonideological --------------------- ideological
    constituency serving ------------------- self-serving
    heterogeneous ----------------- homogenous
    limited goals ----------------- revolutionary goals
    loosely bound ------------------ tightly bound
    non-threatening ------------- most threatening
    less violent--------------------more violent
    autonomous ----------------- dependent
    unlinked ---------------------------- linked
    I'm not sure the analysis of terrorist groups neatly fits into Western concepts and categories, although I applaud your effort at trying. I also believe that there is evidence that the group dynamic is constantly changing as well. I personally think the anthropological approach offers a better understanding and more useful insights.

    Just as an exercise, how would you classify the Kosovars?
    Last edited by walrus; 01-30-2008 at 10:05 AM.

  5. #5
    Council Member SteveMetz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walrus View Post
    Just as an exercise, how would you classify the Kosovars?

    I'm not enough of an expert to place them on the ten dimensions.

  6. #6
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Walrus. I AM LAUGHING MY ASS OFF. I have copied your post widely!
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

  7. #7
    Council Member marct's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Gotta ditto that, Wilf!

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Walrus. I AM LAUGHING MY ASS OFF. I have copied your post widely!
    I think I'm going to assign it as mandatory reading for my students .
    Sic Bisquitus Disintegrat...
    Marc W.D. Tyrrell, Ph.D.
    Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies,
    Senior Research Fellow,
    The Canadian Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, NPSIA
    Carleton University
    http://marctyrrell.com/

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