How the West was Won (well, at least Ramadi)

[tequila]

Cavguy - Awesome, very informative post. Guys like you who write stuff like this is why SWJ exists.

A few questions:

1) How well understood are tensions and shifts of power within or between tribes? For instance, Sheikh Sittar has often been described as a relatively minor entity at the beginning of the ASC. How have more established leadership figures within the Dulaimi confederation taken the sudden rise of American-backed sheikhs?

2) Are most of AQIZ's Iraqi fighters locally based, i.e. from the tribes themselves, or do they represent a sort of detribalized urban agglomeration, i.e. like many unemployed young men who join the Mahdi Army on the Shia side?

3) To address the main concern of those for whom the tribal strategy represents a short-term solution that works against the long-term strategy --- doesn't empowering the tribes, or at least certain tribal figures, work against the establishment of a legitimate central government, given the transient, violent, and often corrupt nature of tribal power structures?

4) Also, do you know if this was useful at all during 1/1 AD's Ramadi operations?

5) Added late: To what degree has U.S. support come through financing or directly arming the Anbar Salvation Council, as opposed to armed support/combined operations i.e. the tank parked near Sheikh Sittar's home?

[Danny]

May we correspond offline (briefly) about this post? I have a few questions I would like to ask. Thank you.

[Cavguy]

May we correspond offline (briefly) about this post? I have a few questions I would like to ask. Thank you.

Sure, Send me a PM.

[Cavguy]

Cavguy - Awesome, very informative post. Guys like you who write stuff like this is why SWJ exists.

A few questions:

1) How well understood are tensions and shifts of power within or between tribes? For instance, Sheikh Sittar has often been described as a relatively minor entity at the beginning of the ASC. How have more established leadership figures within the Dulaimi confederation taken the sudden rise of American-backed sheikhs?

Quick answer is that the bigger sheiks came along quickly once they felt their position was declining vis a vis Sittar and his confederation. However, we didn't "sell out" Sittar to the Johnny come latelies. However, tribe positions have changed regularly throughout the ages in Anbar, and they work and adjust to whoever is in favor at the moment.

2) Are most of AQIZ's Iraqi fighters locally based, i.e. from the tribes themselves, or do they represent a sort of detribalized urban agglomeration, i.e. like many unemployed young men who join the Mahdi Army on the Shia side?

I would say it's 99/1 local/foreign. The Iraqis will claim it's all foreign fighters, but I think we actually captured one real foreign fighter in our time there.

I would say the comparison to the Mehidi army is close - AQIZ fighters come from the Pepsi Generation, so to speak.

3) To address the main concern of those for whom the tribal strategy represents a short-term solution that works against the long-term strategy --- doesn't empowering the tribes, or at least certain tribal figures, work against the establishment of a legitimate central government, given the transient, violent, and often corrupt nature of tribal power structures?

Yes and No. Yes, empowering the tribes makes establishing a central government harder. But that assumes you have a functioning government in the first place, which Anbar had none. The tribes would control who gets elected anyway. I think no central/democratic government is possible as long as you don't have security, which wasn't possible without empowering the tribes or flooding Anbar with tens of thousands of additional US troops.

4) Also, do you know if this was useful at all during 1/1 AD's Ramadi operations?

First I've seen it, but that doesn't mean someone in my BDE didn't read it.

5) Added late: To what degree has U.S. support come through financing or directly arming the Anbar Salvation Council, as opposed to armed support/combined operations i.e. the tank parked near Sheikh Sittar's home?

Both. Money=Power in Iraq. Also, guns=power. Money+Guns+Influence with US = You da man.

I think most of it is the result of AQIZ overstepping the "line" combined with the tribal power base being threatened by AQIZ. Arabs shift alliances fast, and suddenly the US wasn't so bad - I think Sittar was brilliant to seize the opportunity and make him and his tribe more powerful than ever before .....

[JJackson]

Thank you very much for that CavGuy. Sounds like one of those rivers of dominos must have been fantastic to be a part of after so much banging your head on the wall.

P.S. Who won at the cards?

[Cavguy]

Thank you very much for that CavGuy. Sounds like one of those rivers of dominos must have been fantastic to be a part of after so much banging your head on the wall.

P.S. Who won at the cards?

CARS ... not cards.

Did give me a humorous mental image of my son smoking a cigar with sunglasses on playing poker ........

I was lucky both my tours in Iraq to serve with exceptional units in exceptional places - Baghdad/Najaf in 2003-2004, and Tal Afar/Ramadi in 2006-2007.

[tequila]

Sheikh Abdul Sittar al-Rishawi killed in car bomb.

The most prominent figure in a revolt of Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida in Iraq was killed Thursday in an explosion near his home in Anbar province, police said.

Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha was leader of the Anbar Salvation Council, also known as the Anbar Awakening — an alliance of clans backing the Iraqi government and U.S. forces.

He was among a group of tribal leaders who met President Bush earlier this month at al-Asad Air Base in Anbar province.

Abu Risha and two of his bodyguards were killed by a roadside bomb, said Col. Tareq Youssef, supervisor of Anbar police.

No group claimed responsibility for the assassination but suspicion fell on al-Qaida in Iraq, which U.S. officials say has suffered devastating setbacks in Anbar thanks to Abu Risha and his fellow sheiks. It's unclear how his death would affect U.S. efforts to organize Sunnis against the terrorist network.

A senior member of Abu Risha's group, Sheik Jubeir Rashid, said the explosion took place at 3:30 p.m. as Abu Risha was returning to his home in Ramadi, Anbar's provincial capital.

"It is a major blow to the council, but we are determined to strike back and continue our work," Rashid said. "Such an attack was expected, but it will not deter us ..."

[Sarajevo071]

And from the BBC:

Iraqi insurgents kill key US ally

A key Sunni ally of the US and Iraqi governments has been killed in a bomb attack in the city of Ramadi, Iraqi police and media say.

Abdul Sattar Abu Risha led what was known as the "Anbar Awakening", an alliance of Sunni Arab tribes that rose up against al-Qaeda in Iraq.

The movement helped reduce violence dramatically and was hailed by the US as an example for the rest of Iraq.

President George Bush met and endorsed him during a visit to Iraq last week.

Abu Risha's assassination will be a severe blow to the "Awakening" in Anbar province, says the BBC's Hugh Sykes in Baghdad.
...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6993211.stm

BTW, killing the prominent (Sunni) U.S. ally ("poster child" of Iraq volunteer police, force where three-quarters of the volunteer forces were Sunni Muslims) can benefit some other (opposite) players (ea those that do not wish creation of strong Sunni militias).

[wm]

The WP ran an article about an emgagement outside Ramadi back in mid-August in which US forces discovered and beat back an estimated 70 AQI folks (with maybe 50% casualties to the AQI force) whose ostensible target was this sheik. I think it was called the Battle of Turtle Island but my memory may well be defective as to the island's name. The subsequent death of the sheik may make a point about the tenacity and dedication of the opposition, especially because Abdul Sattar assuredly had pretty significant protection in place. Alternatively, one might instead choose to accept that it was an inside job committed by one of his supposed allies--shades of Mario Puzo's Godfather.