Russia, politics and power: internal & external(new title)

[Jedburgh]

RAD, 18 Nov 08: Social Movements and the State in Russia

Analysis
Russia’s “Nashi” Youth Movement: The Rise and Fall of a Putin-Era Political Technology Project

Opinion Poll
“Nashi” and Patriotism
Participation of Young People in Politics
The Sixteen-Year-Olds of Today

Analysis
The Web That Failed: How the Russian State Co-opted a Growing Internet Opposition Movement

[kaur]

Economic Catastrophe Propels Russia into an Identity Crisis

It answered perfectly the ambitions of the new elites and the needs of a disoriented populace and included three key elements: prosperity, pride, and paternalism-or more precisely, Putin himself. All three are now in shambles, and Russia has found itself lost in depression

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ed...ash=5ee395b352

[Beelzebubalicious]

This report from the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation was pretty interesting. It's titled:

Gazprom’s Destabilization Plan for Ukraine and Southeast Europe

The USG is putting more attention and resources into the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but I don't know how they can counter the Russians. In the story is a link to another story about riots in Bulgaria. Ukraine may well be next...

[Gringo Malandro]

This report from the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation was pretty interesting. It's titled:

Gazprom’s Destabilization Plan for Ukraine and Southeast Europe

The USG is putting more attention and resources into the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but I don't know how they can counter the Russians. In the story is a link to another story about riots in Bulgaria. Ukraine may well be next...

Maybe we should leave it to the Europeans to counter the Russians, since they are so critical of our foreign policy. We should at least counter them in the Western Hemisphere first. And on that topic, we have other things to worry about closer to home.

On the other hand, a closer relationship with Turkey could be an asset.

[Jedburgh]

EastWeek, 14 Jan 09: Escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict

....Russia appeared to be acting in a deliberately provocative manner, with an ad hoc objective of further discrediting Ukraine and undermining the international credibility of both the country and its authorities. By escalating the conflict, Moscow is aiming to ultimately take control over Ukraine's strategically important transit gas pipelines, destabilise the internal situation in the country, and perhaps provoke a change of government in Kyiv. Russia also wants a greater EU involvement in the conflict, so that it can try to manipulate Brussels into helping it to impose Moscow's conditions on Ukraine. Russia also aims to boost EU support for the projects to build gas pipelines bypassing Ukrainian territory. Moscow's tough and decisive behaviour suggests that the Russian leadership is determined to achieve its goals, irrespective of the political or economic costs including the negative impact this will have on Russia's relations with the West......

CH, The World Today: Ukraine, Russia and Energy: Final Warning

Twice within the past five months, the inevitable has provoked surprise. When Russia’s Gazprom halted its daily delivery of ninety million cubic meters of gas to Ukraine on January 1, Europe’s political leaders were marginally less astounded than they were by the outbreak of conflict in Georgia in early August. But as in August, the dynamic of escalation has caught them completely off guard. Keeping control of a European energy policy requires a much smarter game......

[Surferbeetle]

From today’s BBC

At his news conference with Mrs Tymoshenko, Mr Putin said that discounts for both Russian gas supplied to Ukraine and the transit rate charged by Kiev would apply for the current year.

"We agreed that in 2009 our Ukrainian partners will have a discount of 20% on condition that the preferential tariff for piping Russian gas to European consumers through Ukraine in 2009 remains in force and that the price for piping will be the price of 2008," he said.

"We also agreed that from 1 January 2010 we will entirely move to price and tariff formation fully in accordance with European standards without any exemptions or discounts as regards both the transit and the price of gas."

European-level prices for gas supplies will mean, at current rates, a jump from $179.5 per 1,000 cubic metres to $380 for Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.

BBC Map of Russia’s Gas Lines to Europe

Gazprom backgrounder by wikipedia

Total gas production in Russia in 2007 was 23.1 Trillion cubic feet, of which 85 percent (19.4 Tcf) was produced by Gazprom;[3] with reserves of 28,800 cubic kilometres (181,000 Gbbl), it controls 16 percent of the world's gas reserves (as of 2004,[4] including the Shtokman field). After acquisition of the oil company Sibneft, Gazprom, with 119 billion barrels (18.9 km3) of reserves, ranks behind only Saudi Arabia, with 263 billion barrels (41.8 km3), and Iran, with 133 billion barrels (21.1 km3), as the world's biggest owner of oil and oil equivalent in natural gas.[5]

By the end of 2004 Gazprom was the sole gas supplier to at least Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Finland, Republic of Macedonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia, and provided 97 percent of Bulgaria's gas, 89 percent of Hungary's, 86 percent of Poland's, nearly three-quarters of the Czech Republic's, 67 percent of Turkey's, 65 percent of Austria's, about 40 percent of Romania's, 36 percent of Germany's, 27 percent of Italy's, and 25 percent of France's.[6][7] The European Union as a whole gets about 25 percent of its gas supplies from this company.[8][9]

Apart from its gas reserves and the world's longest pipeline network (150,000 km), it also controls assets in banking, insurance, media, construction and agriculture.

Naftohaz backgrounder by wikipedia

NJSC Naftohaz Ukrainy or Naftogaz of Ukraine or Naftogas of Ukraine (Ukrainian: Нафтогаз України, literally: Oil&Gas of Ukraine) is the state company[1] of Ukraine concerned with extraction, transportation, and refinement of natural gas and crude oil.

In 2005 the company became embroiled in a dispute over the natural gas prices with Russian state company Gazprom, which was ended on 4 January 2006. In January 2009 the company was the center of a similar conflict.[1]
On October 24, 2008, Gazprom and Naftogaz signed a long-term cooperation deal in which it was decided that Ukraine will receive Russian natural gas directly from Gazprom and Naftogaz will be the sole importer of Russian natural gas.[2].

The company has been accused by Gazprom of "stealing gas" earmarked for Europe.[3]

E.On Ruhrgas backgrounder by wikipedia

E.ON AG (FWB: EOAN), an energy corporation based in Düsseldorf, Germany, is one of the 30 members of the DAX stock index of major German companies and a member of the "Global Titans 50" index. Its chief executive officer (Vorstandsvorsitzender) is Dr. Wulf H. Bernotat. The name comes from the Greek word aeon.[2]

Russia Energy Backgrounder by EIA

In 2007, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 8.1 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country’s seventh consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period. Internally, Russia gets over half of its domestic energy needs from natural gas, up from around 49 percent in 1992. Since then, the share of energy use from coal and nuclear has stayed constant, while energy use from oil has decreased from 27 percent to around 19 percent.

Germany Energy Backgrounder by EIA

Owning to its large economy, Germany is one of the world’s largest energy consumers. In 2004, the country consumed 14.7 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Btu) of total energy, the fifth-largest amount in the world. Besides coal, Germany does not possess any sizable hydrocarbon reserves, so the country must rely upon imports to meet the majority of its energy needs. The lack of domestic hydrocarbon resources has led Germany to become a world leader in the development of renewable energy technologies, with the country becoming the world’s largest producer of biodiesel and generator of electricity from wind.

[Surferbeetle]

From the IMF

A $16.4 billion loan for Ukraine, approved by the IMF's Executive Board on November 5, will help the government strengthen confidence and restore economic stability after the country became the latest victim of the financial crisis sweeping the global economy.

Until the financial crisis hit the world economy in mid-2008, Ukraine was riding on the coattails of a global economy that had an insatiable demand for steel—a commodity that constitutes 40 percent of the country's exports, earning $17 billion a year in revenues. The government passed on the gains from high economic and steel exports growth to the population through generous incomes policies.

Together with rising capital inflows, this fueled an unprecedented consumption boom—and a rising current account deficit. By 2008, the economy had overheated, with inflation running at 25-30 percent, wages being hiked by 30-40 percent, and the import bill growing by 50-60 percent.

[kaur]

Kommersant Reporter Is Badly Beaten

08 November 2010

One of Russia's best-known reporters, Oleg Kashin, remained hospitalized in critical condition Sunday night as journalists and activists increased pressure on the authorities to investigate the savage weekend beating that broke his jaw, fingers and a leg.

Kashin, a 30-year-old journalist with Kommersant and one of the country's most prolific and popular bloggers, was attacked by two unidentified men early Saturday near his home at 28 Pyatnitskaya Ulitsa in downtown Moscow.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...en/421914.html

Look at the video and how the journalist's leggs are chopped

http://www.lifenews.ru/news/42779

[kaur]

Video part II.

http://news.life.ru/news/42814

[kaur]

Op-Ed Contributor
A Beating on My Beat
By OLEG KASHIN
Published: December 11, 2010

A man with a steel rod is standing behind the smiling politicians who speak of democracy. That man is the real defender of the Kremlin and its order. I got to feel that man with my own head.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/12/op...shin.html?_r=2

[davidbfpo]

Taken from Open Democracy an article 'Kuschevskaya: crime and punishment in a Russian village':

The story of scores being settled with a brutal mass murder in southern Russia has hit the Russian national press. It reveals much about the links between organised crime and power in the country today and gives the lie to the propaganda machine’s claims of increasing happiness and stability.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russ...ussian-village

There are links within, such as the BBC's report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11736312

Naturally Wikileaks has some wider comments on Russia being a Mafia state, IMHO this article provides some context - the reader draws his own conclusions.

[kaur]

Russia's Power Families - 2011

The "Russia’s Power Families – 2011. The Government" report was prepared by the Monitoring Expert Group (MEG), created in 2011 by Marina Litvinovich, political scientist and journalist. The Group brings together information processing specialists, investigative journalists, experts and analysts. Six people helped gather the material for this report, which took three months to prepare.Russia's Power Families - 2011

Bortnikov Alexander Vasilyevich, Russian FSB Director

Chaika Yuri Yakovlevich, General Prosecutor

Fradkov Mikhail Efimovich, Foreign Intelligence Service Director

Fursenko Andrei Alexandrovich, Minister of Education and Science

Ivanov Victor Petrovich, head of Federal Drug Control Service

Ivanov Sergei Borisovich, Deputy Chairman of RF Government

Khristenko Victor Borisovich, Minister of Industry and Trade and Golikova Tatyana, Minister of Health and Social Development

Kudrin Alexei Leonidovich, ex-Minister of Finance

Levitin Igor Yevgenievich, Minister of Transport and Communication

Murov Evgeny Alexeyevich, Federal Protective Service director

Mutko Vitaly Leontievich, Minister of Sports, Tourism and Youth Policy

Nabiullina Elvira Sahipzadovna, Minister of Economic Development

Patrushev Nikolai Platonovich, Security Council Secretary

Serdyukov Anatoly Eduardovich, Defense Minister

Shoigu Sergei Kuzhugetovich, Minister of Civil Defense, Emergency Situations and Disaster Relief

Shuvalov Igor Ivanovich, Government’s First Deputy Chairman

Skrynnik Elena Borisovna, Minister of Agriculture

Stepashin Sergei Vladimirovich, Accounts Chamber Chairman

Trutnev Yuri Petrovich, Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology

Zhukov Alexander Dmitrievich, Deputy RF Prime Minister

Zubkov Victor Alekseyevich, First Deputy RF Prime Minister

http://eng.election2012.ru/reports/1/

[AdamG]

Russia has sent interior ministry troops to Moscow and increased the alert level of security forces after a protest of thousands of people opposing Vladimir Putin, officials said on Tuesday.

“They (the troops) have just one aim--to ensure the security of the citizens,” interior ministry forces spokesman Colonel Vasily Panchenkov told the Interfax news agency while a police spokesman said the security forces were now on a “heightened regime” of alert.

“The number of troops deployed is determined by the Moscow police,” Panchenkov added, without giving numbers.

http://english.alarabiya.net/article...06/181111.html

[AdamG]

MOSCOW -- Russian authorities are allowing the opposition to hold a massive Moscow protest against election fraud following a violent police crackdown on unsanctioned demonstrations earlier this week, rally organizers said Friday.
The decision to let up to 30,000 protesters rally on Saturday on a square across the river from the Kremlin appears to be an attempt to avoid the violence that occurred at demonstrations after last Sunday's parliamentary election.

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news...-against-putin

Photo caption -

Russian riot police stand guard near Red Square in Moscow on Friday. Nearly 50,000 police and 2,000 paramilitary forces are on the streets, backed by water cannons, ahead of protests planned for Saturday.

[Stan]

From The Moscow Times

Russia inched closer to a Facebook revolution Thursday, after the number of users who signed up for a protest against the State Duma vote results crossed the 30,000 mark.

Web dissent spilling offline sparked suspicions that the authorities may be mulling a crackdown on Internet freedoms, a fear fueled by reports about law enforcement agencies' disjointed attempts to pressure the online community.

But analysts interviewed for this article said the cost of such a crackdown would be too high and that the Russian segment of the World Wide Web would likely remain a bastion of free speech and political discussion.

[AdamG]

Doh!

Saturday as Russia resorts to 'devious tricks' to limit numbers at anti-Putin rally
Males over 17 also warned they could be conscripted into the Russian army if they protest


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz1gB6R06sO

[davidbfpo]

Russia I doubt has shifted off our radar, though not as a Small War topic and catching up with my reading today I found this article 'Russia's new dissidents' by Anne Applebaum, whose writing is consistently good IMHO.

It is not so much her theme rather the environment in Russia she reports is worth knowing.

Link:http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/al...ssidents.thtml

[bourbon]

Ded Dead: the assassination of Russian crime boss Aslan Usoyan (‘Ded Khasan’), Mark Galeotti. In Moscow's Shadows, 16 January 2013.

News is just breaking that Russian (actually Kurdish Yezidi from Georgia) crime boss Aslan Usoyan (‘Ded Hasan’ or ‘Ded Khasan’ — ‘Grandfather Hassan’) was shot and killed last night in Moscow. Apparently a sniper took him down (some say with a head shot, but probably multiple hits) as he was leaving a restaurant (initial accounts vary, but it was almost certainly the Stary faeton on Bolshaya Nikitskaya, known as his favored hang-out). He died in intensive care at the Botkin hospital.

While the details of the hit will emerge soon enough, the fundamentals are clear — another classic Russian mob killing, reflecting rising tensions within the national underworld as well as the prosecution of a long-running feud(s). The 75-year-old Usoyan was one of the foremost leaders within the Russian underworld, but at a time when that underworld is going through a process of realignment due to a number of forces, not least the increasing flow of Afghan heroin through the country. This was the third assassination attempt in his underworld career, after one in Sochi in 1998 and then another in Moscow in 2010. The latter was a result of his running feud with Georgian mobster Tariel Oniani (‘Taro’) who is currently in prison but still managing his extensive crime empire from behind bars. His feud with Oniani dates back at least to 2007 and has been one of the defining pressures within the Russian underworld.

[bourbon]

This will have repercussions from Western Europe to Central Asia. Expect further killings in Greece, Spain, France, or the UAE - and naturally in Russia and the South Caucasus.

Potential impact on Georgian domestic politics and Afghan heroin trafficking via the Northern Route.

[bourbon]

From RFERL's Power Vertical blog - http://www.rferl.org/content/mob-war.../24879836.html

And so it begins.

The assassins were waiting in a silver Mercedes as Astamur Guliya, a 31-year-old crime kingpin, left a restaurant in downtown Sukhumi. They opened fire as Guliya entered the parking lot, mortally wounding him.

It was impossible not to notice the similarities with the killing four days earlier of the legendary gangster Aslan Usoyan as he left a restaurant in central Moscow. It was also impossible not to notice that the hit took place on the same day that Usoyan was buried in the Russian capital, where hundreds of mob bosses from all over the former Soviet Union bid their farewells.

And it was impossible not to notice that like Usoyan, Guliya was a "vor v zakone," or "thief in law," the rough equivalent of a "made man" in the Russian and post-Soviet underworld.

But Usoyan and Guliya were very different types of made men.

Mark Galeotti's blog - http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.co...d-in-abkhazia/

Could the murder of a no-more-than-moderately infamous local gangster in Abkhazia, Astamur Gulia, ‘Astik Sukhumski,’ mark the start of a wider gang war following the murder of Aslan Usoyan, ‘Ded Khasan’? Usoyan’s death inevitably sent shock waves through an underworld already in a degree of turmoil. The long-running feud between Usoyan and Tariel Oniani (‘Taro’), the hungry encroachments of Rovshan Janiyev (‘Rovshan Lenkoranskiy’) for dominance over the Caucasus gangsters, new disagreements with Zakhar Kalashov (‘Shakhro Junior’), sparked by rows over the distribution and management of his assets after he was arrested in Spain in 2006, all these helped ensure that the ‘mountaineers’ — the gangs from the North and South Caucasus — were increasingly at daggers’ drawn. However, it’s important to realize that for all the airtime they get, the ‘mountaineers’ do not comprise the majority of Russian organized crime and the extent to which there are wider, economic and political pressures also bearing down on the status quo that has held for the past decade.