2013 Sabre rattling on the Korean peninsula

[ganulv]

Moderator's Note

This new thread replaces a long running thread on North Korea, which started in February 2006, with 400 posts and 56k views. That thread is now closed, but can be viewed:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=919 (Ends)


North Korean functionaries are claiming that their country now possesses missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. This reminds me of an anecdote from a fellow who was brought to my undergraduate institution to interview for an at–the–time recently created position for a forensic anthropologist. He had previously been affiliated with a program which sought to identify and exchange human remains with the DPRK. He said his interactions with North Korean colleagues had been very good and that those guys were invariably professional and even amiable. But he also had a story of being taken to a North Korean museum which housed an exhibit to the nation’s space program which included a photo of the Space Shuttle with a North Korean flag crudely Photoshopped onto its side. I think it safe to assume that the DPRK’s ballistic missile capabilities are in the same general neighborhood.

[AdamG]

SEOUL, South Korea — A senior South Korean policy maker on North Korea said on Friday that it must be assumed that the North has the capacity to mount a nuclear device on a ballistic missile, adding that such a capability would pose “an existential threat” to South Korea.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/wo...orth.html?_r=0

[AdamG]

The Japanese government has ordered its military to shoot down the missile that is expected to be launched by North Korea as early as Monday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-missile.html

[AdamG]

SEOUL -- North Korea launched a long-range rocket Wednesday morning in defiance of international warnings that the second test-firing of a missile this year would violate international sanctions.

The Japanese government said Wednesday that debris from North Korea's long-range rocket fell into waters off the Philippines at 10:05 a.m. after passing over Okinawa.

Pyongyang fired the Unha-3 rocket at 9:51 a.m., Seoul's defense ministry said earlier in the day.

Japan didn't order its military to intercept the North Korean rocket, according to officials.

Shortly after the North's defiant launch, the Japanese government convened an emergency meeting of security-related ministers.

http://www.latimes.com/news/world/wo...,4357504.story

[AdamG]

WASHINGTON — American and South Korean officials reported seismic activity in North Korea on Tuesday that appeared to be evidence of the country’s third, and long-threatened nuclear test and a new challenge for the Obama administration in its effort to keep the country from becoming a full-fledged nuclear power.

“We believe that North Korea has conducted a nuclear test,” said Kim Min-seok, spokesman of the South Korean Defense Ministry.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/wo...test.html?_r=0

[AdamG]

North Korea vowed Tuesday to cancel the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War, citing a U.S.-led push for punishing United Nations sanctions over its recent nuclear test and ongoing U.S.-South Korean joint military drills.

Without elaborating, the Korean People's Army Supreme Command warned of "surgical strikes" meant to unify the divided Korean Peninsula and of an indigenous, "precision nuclear striking tool." The statement came amid reports that Washington and North Korean ally Beijing have approved a draft of a UN Security Council resolution calling for sanctions in response to North Korea's Feb. 12 nuclear test. The draft is expected to be circulated at the UN this week.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...ceasefire.html

[AdamG]

(Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its strategic rocket and long-range artillery units have been ordered to be combat ready, targeting U.S. military bases on Guam, Hawaii and mainland America after U.S. bombers flew sorties threatening the North.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92P06520130326

..and a WaPo "Nothing to see here, move along" analysis
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ot-less-scary/

[davidbfpo]

Moderator's Note

This new thread replaces a long running thread on North Korea, which started in February 2006, with 400 posts and 56k views. That thread is now closed, but can be viewed:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=919

There are a few relevant posts on the current sabre rattling by North Korea (DPRK) and this have been moved over - so this note appears after them.

[davidbfpo]

Two interesting and different commentaries on current events. One by a RUSI analyst 'Viewpoint: What is driving North Korea's threats?':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21950069

The author notes:

....there is little reason to suspect that it will deliver on some of its other promises, at least anytime soon.

One reason for this is that a major audience for Kim Jong-un's tough talk is domestic. The young leader was promoted quickly through the ranks of the Korean People's Army by his late father, despite having done little to earn those qualifications. Standing up to North Korea's enemies will help Kim Jong-un consolidate his military and political power.

The second is by a long-time British academic expert on North Korea asks 'Could a Korean Armageddon really happen?:http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfre...ageddon-happen

Namely: are they serious? Do they mean it? Could a Korean Armageddon really happen? My one-word answer would be no. A wag at South Korea's defence ministry quipped earlier this month that "barking dogs don't bite".

I'd forgotten the joint venture in North Korea by a South Korean company and the author notes:

And each day dozens of South Koreans still commute from Seoul across the DMZ to supervise Northern workers at a joint venture industrial park. That is the reality on the ground. With any luck it will remain so.

In a previous article @ Kaesong this activity has never been stopped:http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfre...known-quantity

One wonders what China and Russia think?

[davidbfpo]

A sketchy report on what some refer to as a key barometer of relations:

The two countries have historically been reluctant to meddle with Kaesong, even during periods of fraught tension elsewhere. The complex has never been shut down, in its eight years of operation, and remains an important symbol for both sides. For the North, it is a sign of economic liberalisation and achievement. For the South, it is a blueprint of how the two countries might one day cooperate more fully. More than 120 South Korean companies employ over 53,000 North Koreans at Kaesong for their cheap and skilled labour.

DPRK is restricting entry and exit to Kaesong:

A total of 858 South Korean workers, and seven other foreigners remain on the Kaesong site and could potentially be held hostage if the situation worsens.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rial-zone.html

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

A sketchy report on what some refer to as a key barometer of relations:

DPRK is restricting entry and exit to Kaesong:

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rial-zone.html

It was heavily covered on NPR this morning in the States. I don't want to make light of the very real danger that exists every day along the DMZ, but I remember in the spring of 1994 when the US media was full of stories about how the peninsula was on the brink of war that I wrote to a friend in Seoul and asked if everything there was OK. I received a letter back a couple of weeks later that the whole situation had been a blip there.

The young and new leader is of course a variable which was not present two decades ago.

[Stan]

Here's a scan from my bedroom window in 1980 along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) with the DMZ two clicks south of our quarters.

The intensity of the music and BS from the loudspeakers lulled me into sleep for over a year.

The other part of this madness was working with the UN (seconded) all the while the USG barked from far away and the music and propaganda increased with each passing day.

It's one thing to realize that the North Korean leader is little more than an adolescent, and yet another thing for an educated American politician to play the same game while our troops are on this fragile line of defense.

[AdamG]

The US is moving an advanced missile system to the Pacific island of Guam as a precaution following threats by North Korea, the Pentagon has said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22021832

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by Stan

Here's a scan from my bedroom window in 1980 along the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) with the DMZ two clicks south of our quarters.

The intensity of the music and BS from the loudspeakers lulled me into sleep for over a year.

Stan,

Here it is looking from the other direction, where it (or at least this segment) is apparently the closest thing the DPRK has to a tourist attraction. Weird, but hardly the weirdest thing going on there, I guess.

[max161]

at this link:
http://maxoki161.blogspot.com/2013/0...ramp-this.html

[Bill Moore]

max161,

You are one of the few people I listen to on Korea. Too many others have a year or two there and assume they're an expert and nothing new is going on. At the end of the day, we don't know what is going through the mind of Un, and all the factors driving his behavior. Nor do we know how the ROKs will respond to a potential incident. We can all speculate, some can even make educated guesses, but at the end day we're in a period of uncertainty.

In response to this comment

I remember in the spring of 1994 when the US media was full of stories about how the peninsula was on the brink of war that I wrote to a friend in Seoul and asked if everything there was OK. I received a letter back a couple of weeks later that the whole situation had been a blip there.

Unless your friend was a General Officer or senior Korean politician then it was simply an observation based on the fact he or she didn't see anything pending. I suspect you could have asked that question throughout history to millions of people globally and got a similiar answer just before their nation went to war. I think that may have a couple of times to us? 7 December, 9/11...

Of course that is one reason I think this will die down because the element of surprise appears to have slipped by, but once again I (we) don't know.

[max161]

Bill:
The comment you are referring to about 1994 was not mine but is from "ganulv" above (I was there in 1994 and I remember it sure seemed like more than a blip). In my blog at the link I offer some thoughts on how the regime might off ramp this situation and achieve objectives that support the regime's strategy and policies and what its propaganda narrative might be. I fully agree that no one can know for sure what is going on inside the regime and what they are really thinking but their patterns of actions are revealing and provide at least some clues.
V/R
Dave

[ganulv]

Originally Posted by Bill Moore

Unless your friend was a General Officer or senior Korean politician then it was simply an observation based on the fact he or she didn't see anything pending. I suspect you could have asked that question throughout history to millions of people globally and got a similiar answer just before their nation went to war. I think that may have a couple of times to us? 7 December, 9/11...

He was just a life-long resident of Seoul. I've never been to Korea but the half dozen or so Korean friends I have seem to share the attitude that the War is probably never going to resume but that it might at any moment, and without warning.

[Stan]

Originally Posted by ganulv

Stan,

Here it is looking from the other direction, where it (or at least this segment) is apparently the closest thing the DPRK has to a tourist attraction. Weird, but hardly the weirdest thing going on there, I guess.

Great video, Matt !
The DMZ has attracted tourists for years, even the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders on the southern side.

While I was there a north Korean kindergarden class came for a visit with 3-year olds spitting at us. Can't imagine what they were being taught and now can only imagine what those same kids are like as adults.

The building filled with explosives is real. In fact, the entire MSR1 from Freedom Bridge to Seoul has huge overpasses (without roads leading anywhere) also filled with explosives. Once blown, no way of getting to the capital via armored vehicle unless you want to take a stab at driving a tank through a rice patty

[J Wolfsberger]

Originally Posted by Stan

It's one thing to realize that the North Korean leader is little more than an adolescent, and yet another thing for an educated American politician to play the same game while our troops are on this fragile line of defense.

True.

But what really scares me is that there don't seem to be many "educated American politician(s)." What we have instead is a surplus of highly indoctrinated, over aged, self serving adolescents.

I'll be very surprised if this latest chest thumping by NK doesn't lead to a very bad outcome.