Kenya (catch all)

[carl]

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)

[JMA]

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)

Carl, this smacks of reckless desperation.

The key to any grand strategy is to make sure that whatever you do/use/implement during a 'war' it does not lead to greater polarization of groups/factions after the war.

As with anywhere - and most certainly in Africa - vigilantly 'justice' will often lead to scores being settled etc. Soon will get get out of control.

A sure indication the police and military have lost control.

[carl]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

[KingJaja]

Totally unrelated.

But has it occurred to anyone that "Bin Ladenism" & its manifestations - is essentially a religious movement?

[JMA]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

Carl, I don't know Nigeria at all.

But... in general African terms 'decentralisation' is not the norm.

Their hand might have been forced through their inability to protect the population to allow local militias/vigilanties/whatever to operate... and let the future look after itself.

[JMA]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

To further elaborate Carl, IMHO the key to long term success as opposed short term gains is to consider - in terms of the grand strategy - what the long term outcome would be as a result of arming village militias.

In the African context the thought of arming village militias makes the hair on my neck stand up. It is IMHO a racing certainty that there will be significant abuses - old scores settled (personal, tribal, religious) - not to mention the roaring trade in weapons and ammunition which will be created (much of which will most likely end up in the hands of the terrorists or other criminals).

Then one wonders if anyone has given any thought on how the weapons and ammunition could ever be recovered at some future date?

The problem that emerges is that the Nigerian military has significant limitations in terms of skills - much like we have seen of the Kenyan army - whereby their previous deployment methods are more of a display of what can be termed "brute force and ignorance" rather than any degree of subtlety or situation refined skills. Brute force and ignorance worked for the Nigerian military in Sierra Leone and Liberia but will not work internally - inside Nigeria - where a shoot first approach would not be readily accepted where the collateral damage would be Nigerian civilians (and not expendable others).

[carl]

To further elaborate Carl, IMHO the key to long term success as opposed short term gains is to consider - in terms of the grand strategy - what the long term outcome would be as a result of arming village militias.

In the African context the thought of arming village militias makes the hair on my neck stand up. It is IMHO a racing certainty that there will be significant abuses - old scores settled (personal, tribal, religious) - not to mention the roaring trade in weapons and ammunition which will be created (much of which will most likely end up in the hands of the terrorists or other criminals).

Then one wonders if anyone has given any thought on how the weapons and ammunition could ever be recovered at some future date?

The problem that emerges is that the Nigerian military has significant limitations in terms of skills - much like we have seen of the Kenyan army - whereby their previous deployment methods are more of a display of what can be termed "brute force and ignorance" rather than any degree of subtlety or situation refined skills. Brute force and ignorance worked for the Nigerian military in Sierra Leone and Liberia but will not work internally - inside Nigeria - where a shoot first approach would not be readily accepted where the collateral damage would be Nigerian civilians (and not expendable others).

Thank you JMA. That is what I was looking for.

King JaJa, you are in Nigeria, what is your take?