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Intelligence What do we know, need to know, and how do we get there?

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Old 05-31-2012   #21
Dayuhan
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Originally Posted by carl View Post
That is an all purpose good for whatever ails you argument, I don't know and I know that you don't know because if you did you couldn't say but you did so you don't so what I say is just as good as what you say.
I can't begin to unravel all that, but I doubt that anyone here is in a position to accurately assess the respective extent and effectiveness of US and Chinese cyperespionage efforts.

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Originally Posted by carl View Post
And to answer your question, since legitimate concern became hysteria and panic.
When we paint the other guys as giants and ourselves as midgets, when we claim that they know everything about our capabilities and intentions and we know nothing of theirs, when we claim that everything they do works and everything we do fails, when we look at them as an inevitably rising economic powerhouse and ourselves as a terminally declining has-been, when we base our fears on speculative projections of what somebody might be able to do in a few decades... then we go beyond legitimate concern and into the realm of hysteria, panic, and overhyped threats perceptions.
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Old 05-31-2012   #22
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Default Flip the coin

hat tip to the Lowy Institute e-briefing for a pointer to a Jamestown Foundation report on Taiwan's intelligence chief's public parliamentary hearing; which ends with this flip side of Chinese espionage:
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...the Taiwanese record of espionage against China suggests Tsai’s remarks should be taken seriously. In his well-publicized leaked remarks last year, PLA Major General Jin Yi’nan identified several major Taiwanese spy cases, including the party secretary of China’s National Nuclear Corporation (“General’s Spy Comments Reveal More Than Just Espionage,” China Brief, September 2, 2011). A few years previously, Taiwanese intelligence also developed a spy ring at the PLA Air Force Command Academy, including the school president and other members of its leadership (Global Times, February 14, 2011). These Taiwanese successes indicate that, regardless of Taiwan’s own counterintelligence problems, the island’s intelligence services continually have developed high-level sources in Chinese military circles that could inform Tsai’s annual reports to the Legislative Yuan.
Link:http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ch...b703805948196e
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Old 05-31-2012   #23
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Default Link To FBI Counter-Intelligence Paper

On Economic Espionage.......notice it begins with the Cold War is not over!! I agree 100% which all this business spying goes with basic Commie Take Over Theroy from the 50's and 60's. But all the left over Hippies are know in senior leadership postions. Just as Lenin dreamed we will be weakened to such a point where the final takeover violence will be minimal. They know how to attack on a Systems Level.....more Deadly Than War.


http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investig...omic-espionage
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Old 06-01-2012   #24
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When we paint the other guys as giants and ourselves as midgets, when we claim that they know everything about our capabilities and intentions and we know nothing of theirs, when we claim that everything they do works and everything we do fails, when we look at them as an inevitably rising economic powerhouse and ourselves as a terminally declining has-been, when we base our fears on speculative projections of what somebody might be able to do in a few decades... then we go beyond legitimate concern and into the realm of hysteria, panic, and overhyped threats perceptions.
I'll tell you what. I'll answer to hysterically panic stricken if you'll answer to complacent appeaser. Deal?
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Old 06-01-2012   #25
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If complacency is the absence of fear, I'll wear that label. It's not a definition I'd use, but some might. Where have I ever advocated appeasement?

I personally think the US education system is a greater threat to American security than Beijing and Goldman Sachs combined, but I guess we all have to be hysterical and panic-stricken over something. I mean, think about it... you live in a country where astrologers outnumber astronomers 100 to 1, and you're worried about the Chinese?
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Old 06-01-2012   #26
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Ok. I sense there's room for a deal here.

You'll be complacent but not an appeaser and I'll be just hysterical but not panic-stricken. How about that?
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Old 06-01-2012   #27
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If I confess to complacency, may I be excused from tearing my hair and rending my garment? I've no great stock of hair to begin with, and garments get more expensive by the day... plus they're all made in China, so I couldn't replace it without subsidizing the evil ones.
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Old 06-01-2012   #28
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My brother who made his engineering Bachelor in Munich told me that his institute of the TU (technical university) had no troubles to find internships for their students but for the Chinese. It seems as if certain things, especially espionage happened rarely with other nationalities but relative often with the latter.
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Old 06-01-2012   #29
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Defense Security Service: Targeting US Technologies: A Trend Analysis of Reporting From the Defense Industry
Quote:
....Overall, the majority of collection attempts in FY10 originated from the East Asia and the Pacific region; commercial entities were the most active collector affiliation category for the second year in a row; targeting of information systems (IS) technology more than doubled from FY09; and collectors continued to most commonly use requests for information (RFIs) to elicit information from cleared contractors.

Even as the total suspicious contact reports from industry more than doubled from FY09 to FY10, the East Asian and Pacific region accounted for an even larger percentage of the total in FY10, increasing from 36 percent to 43 percent. East Asia and the Pacific accounted for as much of the total as the next three regions combined. Despite the dramatic increase in the number of reported cases attributed to the second most active region, the Near East, its share of the total actually declined slightly, due to the even greater increase in incidents attributable to East Asia and the Pacific.

As with the East Asia and the Pacific and Near East regions, Europe and Eurasia’s reported collection attempts more than doubled from last year, causing it to displace South and Central Asia as the third most active collector region. Together, East Asia and the Pacific, the Near East, and Europe and Eurasia accounted for over three-quarters of the world-wide total reported collection attempts against the U.S. cleared industrial base.....
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Old 06-01-2012   #30
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Thumbs up Man, is that ever the truth...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
I personally think the US education system is a greater threat to American security than Beijing and Goldman Sachs combined, but I guess we all have to be hysterical and panic-stricken over something. I mean, think about it... you live in a country where astrologers outnumber astronomers 100 to 1, and you're worried about the Chinese?
All three parts; the first point quite accurately and sadly , the last hilariously .

Shame that hysteria and panic isn't directed at the pathetic state of our education system which promotes a tendency toward those failings as well as an obsessive desire for safety and comfort couched as risk or harm avoidance.
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Old 06-01-2012   #31
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Default Heading for defeat?

This is rather balanced piece of advocacy on the threat from PRC cyber activity, from April 2012 by Jason Healey, Director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council of the United States (so a 'Beltway Pundit').

In brief a major challenge to the economic sustainability and health of governments and businesses alike.

Quote:
The threat of Chinese espionage is so critical that the commander of our military cyber defenses has called it the “the biggest transfer of wealth through theft and piracy in the history of mankind.” But the threat is not bad enough to go on the record about the threat, to take risks to share needed information, or even to be willing to tell the Chinese to back off.

These are the government’s Three Silences. Added together I fear they are driving us to defeat.

First: Silence about the threat we face....Second: Silence about practical information which could help the private sector....This leads us to the last silence: Silence to the Chinese about our increasing fury.... By refusing to speak, either to our own people or to the Chinese, we are fighting on an asymmetric battlefield of our adversary’s own choosing. Going public, through naming and shaming those involved, is a winning strategy.
Link:http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/...cyber-silences
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Old 06-01-2012   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbfpo
This is rather balanced piece of advocacy on the threat from PRC cyber activity, from April 2012 by Jason Healey, Director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council...
Balanced? I don't read it as such. Hell, he even advocates a position where if an incident even appears as if it came from China, then we don't bother trying to track it - just hold the Chinese government accountable, regardless. And Healey's piece focuses only on the Chinese, which, although China may be the origin of the majority of cyber espionage, the threat is active in all corners of the world.

However, I do agree with Healey about declassification of malware signatures for private sector security. Overclassification is a serious obstacle to efficiency in too many key areas - a problem clearly identified post-911, but still nowhere near adequately addressed.

But back to the issue - Any realistic and practical advocate of cyber-defense should be stressing the growing potential global threat, not scare-mongering against one particular actor - especially when that characterization builds the perception that China is the sole threat. The threat is real, and although espionage originating from China makes up the largest proportion (Russia is a major, sophisticated player as well), that does not excuse minimizing or ignoring the global nature of cyber espionage. And the global threat will only expand and build with the growth and development of technological capabilities - in effect, the cyber threat is the 21st century's arms race, but with a potentially unlimited number of state and non-state players.

Fortunately, those at the dirty-boots level of cyber defense (who are never actually in a position to get their boots dirty) have been well aware of the growing nature of the threat for a long time, and have been actively engaged in the evolutionary and innovative development of counter-measures for just as long. The mouthpieces at the national public level are simply players engaged in what is to be a bureaucratic spillage of blood over securing future funding, as we approach a defense drawdown and cuts that may resemble the immediate post-Cold War era.
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Old 06-01-2012   #33
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1. File under "Quid Pro Quo, Clarice".
2. SWJ needs a "This Thread Useless Without Pics" smiley.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-18299065

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Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily quotes the monthly New Way as saying on 25 May that the official "fell into a pretty woman trap" set up by the CIA.

After the two were photographed in secret liaisons, he was blackmailed and agreed to supply secret information to the US, the reports say.

"The destruction has been massive," a source told Reuters.
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Old 06-01-2012   #34
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Jed:

I don't know that much about how this stuff works exactly which is why I am asking. There was a post over at Information Dissemination a few weeks ago and the author advocated allowing individual targets, companies basically, to take active measures (trons dueling trons kind of) to defend themselves if they are the target of cyber attacks or spying. From the tone of the post this does not happen now. What do you think of that? Are they permitted or encouraged fry an attackers machine now and if they aren't, should they be?
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Old 06-01-2012   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carl View Post
Jed:

I don't know that much about how this stuff works exactly which is why I am asking. There was a post over at Information Dissemination a few weeks ago and the author advocated allowing individual targets, companies basically, to take active measures (trons dueling trons kind of) to defend themselves if they are the target of cyber attacks or spying. From the tone of the post this does not happen now. What do you think of that? Are they permitted or encouraged fry an attackers machine now and if they aren't, should they be?
I'm no expert on current corporate countermeasures either, but as far as I know its as you stated: US corporations are tightly focused on defensive measures, but they tend to be passive (at least with those that will discuss or publish security countermeasures in anything resembling a public venue appear to be that way). Some that would like to take active measures are deterred by concerns about legal liabilities resulting from the potential impacts of active measures along the lines of the counterattack type that you suggest - with liability being a constant concern of corporate lawyers in any case.

Sam may have better knowledge of current private sector defensive actions, if he wants to jump in.

Also, there is a government-private sector information sharing entity that has been in existence for a few years now, the Domestic Security Alliance Council, which is intended to facilitate the sharing of critical information between corporations and the FBI and DHS. A substantial part of that is focused on the cyber threat. I'm not saying its really effective, but its there and can be leveraged by the private sector.

And Dayuhan and Ken's remarks about education are also important in the context of an evolving long-term cyber threat - for at least the past two years there have been intermittent reports about the number of computer science grads being too small to meet economic demands, which may or may not also factor in cyber security demands. Hell, just last month the University of Florida was about to eliminate its Computer Science department - while increasing the athletic budget by around $2 million - until a huge outcry resulted in the reversal of that decision. But it remains clear that focus is lacking too many institutions of higher education, let alone our weak and damaged primary education system.
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Old 06-03-2012   #36
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If I were to endorse Chinese activities without giving the rationale, I would have no fear.

Fear arises only if one does not endorse the happenings that create the fear!

An ostrich with its head in the sand, has no fear!

Last edited by Ray; 06-03-2012 at 06:17 PM.
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Old 06-04-2012   #37
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Has anyone here "endorsed Chinese activities"?

Rational assessment of threat needn't produce fear. There's room for disagreement on the extent and nature of threat, but reasonable disagreement is not advanced by panic or hysteria.
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Last edited by Dayuhan; 06-04-2012 at 01:41 AM.
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Old 06-05-2012   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
...reasonable disagreement is not advanced by panic or hysteria.
But well-crafted and focused panic and hysteria are excellent tools for building project support and raising funds.
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Old 06-05-2012   #39
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A moral panic is caused when an issue threatens the perceived social and the world order.
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Old 06-05-2012   #40
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A moral panic is caused when an issue threatens the perceived social and the world order.
Panic is also often caused when an issue is perceived to threaten that order. The question in that case is whether or not that perception is reasonable. Jedburgh says it well:

Quote:
well-crafted and focused panic and hysteria are excellent tools for building project support and raising funds.
When somebody wants us to be afraid, there's a very good chance that they're trying to sell something. Always good to take a deep breath and calmly assess the extent to which the alleged issue actually does threaten the social and world order, or any fraction of that order.
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