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Old 03-14-2014   #41
JMA
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I ordered a used hardcover version. If Walton is accurate, Giustozzi describes what I've concluded in looking at Norman England and the Ile de France of the period ca. 1100-1450.
Mike has this been confirmed?
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Old 03-14-2014   #42
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Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.
What steps do you think need to be taken, and by whom?

Hard to see how any foreign power has the standing to be involved... are there local entities with the capacity to really take charge of things without being perceived as working purely toward their own ends?
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Old 03-14-2014   #43
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Another crisis (has nothing to do with either the Niger Delta or Boko Haram) in Nigeria's volatile "Middle Belt".

Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.
This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state

Quote:
Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.
So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting
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Old 03-14-2014   #44
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I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).

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Old 03-14-2014   #45
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Most Fulani-related violence in Nigeria is concentrated around central Plateau state, where Muslim herders are pitted against Christian farmers. Thousands have been killed in recent years.

Such conflicts - a mix of land disputes, tribal and religious animosity - are unrelated to the Islamist insurgency concentrated mainly in Nigeria's northeast, in which many civilians have also been killed.
So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.
Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.
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Old 03-14-2014   #46
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I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.

Regards

Mike

PS: Hmm ..., 100 cattle per perp. Sounds like the founding of Rhodesia, Rhodes, The Life & Legend of Cecil Rhodes Ep.5 (start at 39:45, with Johnson's ultimatum to the Shona).
In this case it would be punitive... in those days it was used as a pretext

There must some great examples of pretext out of American history, yes?
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Old 03-14-2014   #47
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Relationships between nomads and their neighbors are fraught by nature. That certainly can’t be blamed on the colonial powers. The imposition of colonial and then national borders made Fula subsistence patterns more difficult to maintain, though, so colonial and post-colonial governance have exacerbated the tensions to a degree.
In most of these remote areas the borders were purely administrative and movements continued must as before.

Competition over land use - as you mentioned - is probably the cause and mainly due to the growth of the population that must be sustained from the land. Not sure how much water is an (additional contributing) issue there... but you would know about that matter from US history out West with the 'water wars'.

Something has to give... there has to be a loser (and he must lose big).

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Old 03-14-2014   #48
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I'll post something re: Giustozzi's book in the thread, Second-party Counterinsurgency, when I get around to it.
Look forward to that.
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Old 03-14-2014   #49
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What steps do you think need to be taken, and by whom?

Hard to see how any foreign power has the standing to be involved... are there local entities with the capacity to really take charge of things without being perceived as working purely toward their own ends?
An important first step is a "national conference". Nigeria can live with Boko Haram if it is contained to the North east, but these other conflicts are intensely political & more of a threat to our future.

National conference:

Quote:
Finally, it is instructive to note that Ethiopia in 1991 conducted a national conference and came out with a far reaching people’s constitution in 1994 with a clause that creates a two-tiered federal structure, which, at least in principle, emphasised ethnic groups’ rights and the right to self-determination which are necessary ingredient for a stable democracy and on the other hand, Nigeria should not also be in a hurry forget the case of the former Yugoslavia in Europe with similar historical trajectories like us disintegrated in 1992–1999 respectively.
http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2014/02...o-forge-ahead/
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Old 03-14-2014   #50
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This incident is not a crisis (by African standards).

This is Nigeria's current crisis:

Nigeria orders probe into 'missing $20bn' of oil money

Now back to the side-show at Katsina...

From the BBC:

Nigeria attack: Scores killed in Katsina state


So this 'crisis' has been festering for some time then... Can this be blamed on the colonial power? I suggest not. More an indication of incompetence by a government more interested in stealing oil money than governing the country.

These land issues where herders and farmers compete for the diminishing land resources - mainly due to population growth, over grazing and poor land husbandry - are common place. Something has to give.

The Brits would probably have given the Fulani an ultimatum to surrender the perpetrators and when they were not produced conducted a punitive raid where they confiscated cattle - say 100 for each person killed - and handed them over to the surviving victims.

This of course would just cause the Fulani to conduct raids to steal 'their' cattle back.

So send up some military helicopters and shoot 5,000 or so Fulani cattle and engage any tribesmen who fire on the helicopters. On second thoughts, make that 10,000 cattle to make sure they get the message and also reduce the pressure on the grazing land available.

Happy hunting
A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.
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Old 03-14-2014   #51
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Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
A few points:

A. Lucky Brits, they happened to rule Nigeria when AK 47s weren't easily
available.
B. We actually have elections & democracy - so you don't win votes by demanding 200 cows from (or whatever) from an ethnic group.
C. Yes, the Nigerian government has been incompetent & corrupt - since Independence, but you can't play "Cecil Rhodes" here, not even the Brits can.
Then as you said earlier:

Quote:
Could Nigeria end up like Central African Republic (albeit on a much larger scale)? Yes, if urgent steps aren't taken.
Democracy? More like a Kleptocracy.
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Old 03-14-2014   #52
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Default Pretext or Punitive

Sure; we had a lot of both.

Here's my favorite cow story (which has both), Into the West - Part 3 (Dreams and Schemes); starts at 56:00; ends at 1:02:20. Great ending, IMO - payback's a mother - the "Grattan Pincushion". Historical event (link).

Regards

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Old 03-18-2014   #53
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Default Turkish link to Boko Haram?

Interesting/bizarre story.

Istanbul (AFP) - Turkish Airlines allegedly shipped weapons to unknown groups in Nigeria, which has been ravaged by violence between the army and Boko Haram militants, a new incriminating phone call revealed on Tuesday.

The leaked conversation is the latest blow to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been hit by a corruption probe ensnaring his key allies and a widening phone-tapping scandal.

Quote:
In a tape posted on YouTube, Mehmet Karatas, an assistant executive of the airline, allegedly tells Mustafa Varank, an advisor to Erdogan, that he feels guilty over national flag carrier's arms shipment to Nigeria.

"I do not know whether these (weapons) will kill Muslims or Christians. I feel sinful," Karatas is allegedly heard saying.

The leaked call has the potential to harm the airline's image -- which is 49 percent state-owned and is in an aggressive push to become a global player.

It is the latest in a series of recordings implicating Erdogan and his aides in corruption and other abuses of power ahead of crucial local polls on March 30.

The Turkish strongman has dismissed most of the tapes as "vile" fakes put together by rivals.
http://news.yahoo.com/turkish-airlin...202353840.html
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Old 03-19-2014   #54
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Default New Nigeria plan to tackle Boko Haram wins plaudits

The title of a Nigerian news site, which is almost breathless in its applause:http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/n...wins-plaudits/

How about this passage as a taster:
Quote:
National Security Adviser Sambo Dasuki unveiled the new measures in a rare public announcement that touched not only on past mistakes but indicated a more joined-up approach to tackling the crisis.

Dasuki’s “soft power” plan includes “de-radicalisation” programmes for suspected and convicted Boko Haram fighters as well as closer co-operation with communities most affected by the deadly violence.
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Old 03-21-2014   #55
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Default Immigrations recruitment: 7 feared dead, dozens injured in stampede in Abuja

This has no direct connection with Boko Haram or other topics of interest to terrorism scholars. But it illustrates the massive youth unemployment & underemployment that fuels a lot of the problems in Nigeria.

In summary about 520,000 people applied for a little over 4,000 jobs - & as of today 16 people died in the ensuing stampede over the nation.

Quote:
ABUJA – At least seven people were killed and dozens injured in Nigeria’s capital after thousands of panicked job-seekers stampeded during a government recruitment drive in the national stadium on Saturday.
Survivors told AFP that thousands had gathered to apply for jobs with the immigration department in the Abuja stadium.
One witness said the stampede broke out as applicants surged towards a central stage. They said only one entrance to the 60,000-capacity stadium was open. It wasn’t clear how many people were inside at the time of the crush.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/i....4JlhEAik.dpuf
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Old 03-21-2014   #56
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Default Reducing militancy: same approach, no change here?

Well the new strategy has certainly had a baptism of fire:
Quote:
Well over 500 people were killed in Nigeria last week when security forces responded to what the military portrayed as a jailbreak attempt by the Islamist group Boko Haram, making it one of the bloodiest episodes yet in the military’s five-year counterinsurgency campaign, according to officials in the northern town of Maiduguri.

As inmates streamed last Friday through the opened gates of Giwa Barracks, a notorious military detention center in Maiduguri, a military plane fired on them while soldiers on the ground also opened fire, killing scores, a senior hospital official in Maiduguri said.

Much about the episode remains unclear, such as how attackers were able to penetrate one of the most heavily fortified sites in northern Nigeria, in daylight. The assault, which the military called a Boko Haram raid, has not been claimed by the group, though it often does not claim responsibility for attacks. No Boko Haram member, living or dead, has been presented to the media, despite the military’s claim last week that “many of the terrorists and their weapons have been captured.”
Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/wo...=67232673&_r=0
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Old 03-21-2014   #57
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Just think what job creation could take place if you could stop the politicians and civil servants from looting the country... and recover even half of what has been stolen already?

Problem solved... what's next?


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Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
This has no direct connection with Boko Haram or other topics of interest to terrorism scholars. But it illustrates the massive youth unemployment & underemployment that fuels a lot of the problems in Nigeria.

In summary about 520,000 people applied for a little over 4,000 jobs - & as of today 16 people died in the ensuing stampede over the nation.


- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/03/i....4JlhEAik.dpuf
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Old 03-21-2014   #58
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Well the new strategy has certainly had a baptism of fire:

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/21/wo...=67232673&_r=0
In daylight? And per chance there was an armed aircraft overhead and soldiers in just the right position when it happens?

Guarantee next time someone leaves the gate open none of the surviving detainess are going to try and make a run for it.

That's the way we do it in Africa
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Old 03-21-2014   #59
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Just think what job creation could take place if you could stop the politicians and civil servants from looting the country... and recover even half of what has been stolen already?

Problem solved... what's next?
I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.
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Old 03-21-2014   #60
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I thought we want a serious discussion of issues here - not to suggest that:

1. I don't know that public money is being looted in Nigeria.
2. Outright dismissal of a news article I posted as if to suggest that the newspaper and I are very stupid to even comment on this in the first place.
KingJaja, do me a favour please... you are not speaking to a North American or a continental European... spare me the pretense of ignorance of the corruption levels in Nigeria (which are as out of control as some East European states).

Tranparency International finds Nigeria 144 of 177 on the corruption scale... that makes it highly corrupt.

Now here is the immediate cash for fund job creation - if it can ever be recovered:

President Goodluck Jonathan orders inquiry into Nigeria’s ‘missing’ $20bn of oil revenue

Then here is a what could have been statement of the obvious - which maybe you have missed:



Now given all that can you believe that both the US and UK give aid of around $250m each to Nigeria. Stupid is as stupid does.

Last edited by JMA; 03-21-2014 at 06:57 PM.
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