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Old 12-15-2009   #21
M-A Lagrange
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Default I love when Hollywood stars are coming on a safari to tell us how to change the world

Sorry, today, I did not have time to look for English versions.

Angelina Joli criticizes Barak Obama on Darfour.

http://www.parismatch.com/People-Mat...-Obama-152319/

Just to give an idea, here is the US strategy for Sudan:
The U.S. strategy in Sudan must focus on ending the suffering in Darfur, and building a lasting peace. The three principal U.S. strategic priorities in Sudan include:
• 1) A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
• 2) Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
• 3) Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.


About the hostages:

Also, Chadian general Oki Dagache accused Sudanese secret services to be behind the 3 French hostages’ abductions in Chad and Central Africa.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0...24@7-60,0.html

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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Old 12-16-2009   #22
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Default If war with North doesn't work out: Let's go for a war with Uganda!

Sudan presses US special envoy on lifting sanctions

December 15, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The US special envoy to Sudan General Scott Gration met with a number of officials here who urged his government to ease the decade long unilateral sanctions imposed stressing that they are no longer justified.
The Sudanese finance and national economy minister Awad Al-Jaz told Gration that debt relief is one of the peace deliverables and part of the Oslo donors’ conference obligations adding that Sudan has made substantial efforts in improving economic growth as shown in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports.
Al-Jaz stressed that Sudan is working on sustainable and balanced development as well putting efforts to bring peace to the war ravaged region of Darfur.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33477

Is that the bargain? Debt relief against hostages?

What ever comments Mr Gration can do, the elections will not be free, frai and transparent. Registration has been a success because population almost did not have the choice. Registration is nothing! What will count are the results and how they achieve those results and what will be the out comes of those results.
If it’s another fake government who tells its population (and I quote): “tell me what you need and I will make sure the UN will give it to you…”
Then guy, move, make war, what ever but do not participate to that joke.

South Sudan demands ancestral land from Uganda

Muki Batali Bulli, the Commissioner of Kajo-Keji County, South Sudan demands ancestral land that Uganda has "extended ownership claims."
The meeting convened in Moyo last week to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and South Sudan’s Kajo-Keji County turned chaotic after the Uganda team dismissed Sudanese’s claiming of more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim "ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the Ugandan international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries including South Sudan Central Equatoria State Gov. Clement Wani Konga.
In Kampala, the Ugandan State Minister for Regional Cooperation, Okello Oryem, confirmed the meeting saying South Sudanese officials demanded a 5 km (3 miles) portion of Ugandan land at a meeting on December 12.
"It’s true the Sudanese claimed ownership of a bigger chunk of land but of course we have colonial maps and other documents that clearly state where the border lies and I’m confident we’ll reach an agreement when we meet in January,"
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33455

Looks like nothing this, but it’s a huge problem to come. Land is the best war promoter in Africa.
Sudan can claim for ancestral land, but they rather should ask Uganda to invade them. Ugandan troops are deployed inside South Sudan from the tri border point between Uganda, Kenya and Sudan up to Darfur.
I wonder how much colonial maps did include Darfur as a part of Uganda?

All right, they are hunting down LRA (On that, See the excellent threat COIN case: LRA). But GoSS is much too happy to welcome Ugandan troops on his soil, while population all over just doesn’t see it the same way. Ugandan troops come with families, with traders, with plenty people. They take some land to settle, waiting to come back with the troops.
In Magwi County, they don’t even bother anymore in asking to Sudanese elders the right to take land, they just take it. According to various definitions, it is basically a form of colonization.
South Sudan went close to war with its best military supporter Kenya due to border issues. Tanks and the best SPLA were deployed for several weeks on the border.

If they don’t manage to go at war with North, they definitively are looking for other bordering alternatives. But! What can do a government (and its neighbors) when its army looks like a gang? Apply the Rwandan strategy. If you want to stay in power: send your generals abroad to make war!

Last edited by M-A Lagrange; 12-16-2009 at 06:05 AM.
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Old 12-17-2009   #23
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Default Are western powers irrationals? Apparently yes.

Sudan urges France to review its colonial policy

Foreign ministry spokesperson Muawiya Osman Khalid condemned on Wednesday the "French irrational attitudes that throw rocks hinders the path of peaceful settlement in Darfur". He also warned its negative impact would be extended to "Francophonie belt" in central and western Africa.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33480
I love the irrationality to respect law and also the colonialist politic of France in Africa… Coming from a man who considers that 2 third of the people of the country he is ruling are slaves with a lower humanity that dogs… Let me laugh.
Yes there are new partnerships in Africa but this does not change the bottom line: you do not compromise with people under investigations of the ICC.

Well, what about US? Can Khartoum really afford to use such words against US?
Are US congress men all irrational colonialists?
Guess what? Most probably apparently.

Congress presses for harder line on Sudan diplomacy, arms embargo

USCIRF Commission Chairman Leonard A. Leo, having recently returned from a five day visit to Khartoum, said "it is time for the United States to exercise strength. The policy of engagement – ‘cookies and gold stars’ – is not working. It is emboldening Khartoum to a point where this peace process is perilously close to failure."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33478

Just to remind every body of what is freedom of speech in Sudan during presidential elections:

Sudan says it will not permit any demonstrations by opposition

The Sudanese presidential adviser and the former director of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Salah Gosh told a convention for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that the government will crack down “on any attempts to stir up the absurdity and the destabilization of the country’s security”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33487


Could, one day only, African politician stop undermining this continent?

Mbeki softens stance on Darfur hybrid court proposal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33484

Just like with Bob who is killing Zimbabwe, Mbeki is playing his soft diplomacy again about Sudan and Bashir.

Soft diplomacy is a perversion of African traditions. Yes: countries sovereignty has to be respected but justice is independent.
A transparent and fair trial is not hold on the crime scene!


For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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Old 12-18-2009   #24
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Default Building dictatorship and war

SPLM says will not endorse national security bill

The current law, the 1999 National Security Forces Act, allows the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) to arrest and detain people without charge for up to nine months, and without judicial review for six months. It also grants them broad powers of search and seizure, and contains immunity provisions.
Yaser Arman, the leader of SPLM block at the Sudanese parliament and SPLM deputy Secretary General for northern Sudan, told Sudan Tribune Thursday they reiterated their opposition to the national security bill during the meeting because they "are opposed the powers to arrest, detention, search and seizure, and immunities for national security personnel," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33492

I agree with them but they have to propose something. The old strategy of being opposed to everything did not work in any of the African countries. Opposition has to come with propositions and bill draft, not just oppose.


South Sudan army minister says peace is vital for growth

Defense forces have a critical responsibility of preserving, protecting and defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to safeguard citizens from internal and external aggression, the minister said.
Nhial further blatantly admitted Government cognizant of numerous challenges particularly those personnel in the defense force faces in carrying out their duties, he called on men and women in uniforms not to deviate from the cause of the SPLM.

Here again, who will disagree with such the assertion that defense forces have the responsibility to protect and defend the people? No one.

But in a nation, an army (here the SPLA) is not the army of a party (the SPLM).
Once again, nation building hits at full speed its limits and our great incapacity to introduce and conduct security reforms in post conflict countries and fragile states.
Nations are built on two things: the ownership of power sharing mechanism by the people (democracy) AND the ownership violence monopoly by the people through defense forces (the submission of the army to a State apparatus and not a party).
US army is the tool of a nation not the property of a man or a party.

SPLA has to be the tool of a nation and not the armed wing of a party.
What we are building in South Sudan is a democratic dictatorship.
Elections are not fake because parties will tickle the boxes but because democratic power basics are not in place in Sudan.

As long as the elite of North and South Sudan will not be able to separate military and political power, the democratisation process supported by the UN will never build a democratic nation. It will just give another flavor to a dictatorship. In Sudan as in so many other places…
But by saying so, I just said that nation building is not just limited to elections and replacing an elite by another. I just rejected all assumptions of nation building as we do it to day.

But the worst comes from IGC:

the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.
“Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup, and time is running out” says Fouad Hikmat, Crisis Group’s Sudan Adviser. “Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South’s self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and stability in the country”.
The current negotiations between President Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) cannot achieve an all-Sudan peace. Both want elections but for the wrong reasons. Bashir’s party wants to re-establish its political legitimacy, the SPLM to ensure that the referendum, which must be no later than 9 January 2011, goes ahead.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6438&l=1

In one word, neither North nor South are looking to build a democratic nation through an electoral process but are looking for a just war coming from electoral boxes.

And the proof of how bad it is from Small Arms Survey :
According to Small Arms Survey, North army is strong of 225000 men and 310000 small fire arms. South army is strong of 125000 men with 175000 small fire arms. This is naturally without counting the 2 000 000 small arms hold by civilian population. Neither the 100 tanks bought by South and North military industrial capacity.
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Old 12-21-2009   #25
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Default And South Sudan goes deeper on the path of failed state building

There has been a lot of news about South Sudan this week end. Elections, yes! But also many on core issues as the security bill, local governance, climate…

First the serious news:

Parliament voted the security bill

The law voted on Sunday still gives power to National Security to arrest and conduct investigations without real accusations but the duration of detention has passed from 3 times 3 months to a maximum of 4.5 months.
In fact the details are not that much different from what we have in our post 9/11 western countries.
SPLM voted against and the National Alliance, Minni Minnawi’s party (from Darfur) left the parliament…

In fact SPLM point is very clear and is one more time linked to CPA. This law does not comply with transitional CPA constitution.
But as they do not comply so much with CPA constitution is South, specially on SPLA deployment locations… I wonder to who we could throw the first stone.

Anyway, Human Right Watch already denounced it. I wonder what they will say when South Sudan will pass an internal security Bill…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Ow49EJlorMlahw
(in French)

Elections:

Once again, Catholic Church is call for rescue and legitimacy.
Governor calls on church for moral supports during elections
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33525

More seriously, once again, fake elections will cost a huge amount of money:
UNDP funds $91m programme to support Sudan’s election
The UNDP program, which is funded by the governments of Italy, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, France and the European Commission, will cover all the materials needed for the elections including voting cards, ballot boxes, and educational campaigns for voters, together with training sessions for election officers and local police.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33503
After the disastrous election funding in DRC, EU tries again to buy an African country…

Local governance:
South Sudan calls for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution
The government of the semi autonomous region of South Sudan has called for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution in the region awash with fire arms and other weapons.
The regional government has in recent past witnessed regular killing of innocent people mostly children, women elderly and other vulnerable groups.
It is also experiencing public hateful and/or divisive speeches mainly from intellectuals seeking political appointments in the government as alternatives to reaching compromises.
Do not want to be arch on this but once again, central African power calls “tradition” to the rescue. When will we escape from the infernal circle of the African tradition as the solution to all the problems, especially bad governance and corruption?
If intellectuals are complaining about governance, monopoly of violence, accountability… It’s not in appointing local illiterate traditional chief that thingswill change.
South Sudan is just taking the old path of a too well known African dictatorial regime. I guess the advice comes from Uganda. Former Ugandan leader used the same trick to lower down intellectual opposition.

In my knowledge, it’s the same local traditional leaders who are complaining the youth is not listening to them.

As stated into the very well documented and excellent “guide to rebuild governance in stability operations: a role for the military?”, traditional leaders are often the source of ultra local conflicts and use of violence.

Then the funny news:

Climate:
Some are trying to use Darfur as the first climate war.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/...bonne-note.php
Well, I am sorry, but Darfur war is based on power sharing and development benefit access. It is not even an ethnic war. Environmental changes have nothing to do with that ever going on war that pop up in western news papers only in 2004.
What happened in Darfur since 2004 is more or less linked with the CPA (even more than less). Khartoum faced an insurgency after being defeated by another insurgency. The response is the worst in the word, yes. But it is not due to climate. Otherwise Chadian war is due to climate. And my experience in that beautiful sunny sandy desert tells me that mass population movement and thousands years of no environmental management is far from being at the center of the conflict. Politics, yes.
Climate may be the war cause of tomorrow but do not try to reduce once again complex African political issues on power and economical access into a small tiny box!
African wars are as political as Western, Arab, South American, Asian wars! To quote Wilf quoting Clausewitz: war is politic.

I guess, as the opinion is coming from Quebec, it’s just Canada trying to get access to its oil fields. (But I am a political paranoid).

And still the hostages:

Red Cross calls for unconditional release of kidnapped staff members.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33522
Message is clear, nothing to add.


For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!
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Old 12-21-2009   #26
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Default MA, I almost spewed my beer

onto my keyboard and monitor

Quote:
"With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.
Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa

I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions

Quote:
Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.
So, exactly how many people really did register ?
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Old 12-21-2009   #27
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Default registration??? Is that the real problem...

Stan,

I will try to respond to your question on registration.
In South, things went not that bad. The main problem is not really registration but rather the figures they will present.
First of all, there has been an over estimation of South Sudan population by SPLA during CPA talks. Census and reality have shown that only around 4 million people are actually present in South Sudan. Then only half of them are in age to vote…
Basically IDPs in Darfur used their last weapon to resist against the UN circus and elections: they boycotted registration.
In South, as in the state where I am, I would simply say that even dead and babies will vote.
Figures are anyway all fake from the very first day.
- SPLA over estimated its population so they could threat Khartoum.
- Khartoum is running an anti election campaign as they may loose presidential election if they go for transparency and fair elections.

Few months ago, a report called tickle the boxes went out to explain why all parts will cheat. And, at that time, my comment was: only Khartoum needs to tickle the box; in South, military will probably just make a coup if not elected.

For more details on elections (what a joke) please, have a look at:
Imagine the elections from NDI:
http://www.ndi.org/node/15795

Oxford analytica
http://www.oxan.com/countries.aspx?country=Sudan

And Carter centre…
http://cartercenter.org/news/pr/sudan-081909.html
But I must say that I am not very much impressed by them.
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Old 12-21-2009   #28
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Default

MA, Thanks for the links (especially another Carter Link !).

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic

I once visited Juba from Zaire, but then the governing authority were mostly military. So I find it hard to believe that something democratic will come from these "free and fair" elections in GoSS.

I noticed there is also a reserved election position for a female candidate. I can't imagine what that will do in Khartoum

Do the locals still refer to Khartoum as Qadaffi’s egg ?

Regards, Stan
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Old 12-21-2009   #29
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Default I can't tell about the Kadafi eggs

What I see for the moment is SPLA soldiers visiting villages and saying: tell what you need and the UN will give it to you.

There is no such thing as free and fair election in GoSS. They all are former or members of the SPLA with stupid ranks. I did not even new that South Sudan could host so many divisions brigader general and major general and...

But, yes, you just got it. GoSS is not a government of South Sudan people, it's a club for SPLA high ranked generals.
The idea that an army is serving a government is just not crossing their mind.

There is something to be written on Central Africa: the tomb of Nation Building...
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Old 12-24-2009   #30
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Default

Elections:

On December 22, NCP put a claim for fraud on elections registration.

In South Sudan, more than 5 million individuals have been registered while only around 4 million were expected according to census. It is nearly 131% of the potential electors that have been registered in South Sudan.
As I was mentioning in a previous post, the main question here id not who is cheating, it is the completely fake figures that have been used by all sides.
In which country around this world, with a real democracy, 100% of electors are registered? In South Sudan, that is not a problem, it is even the norm.
What I found amazing is that Carter Center and other watchers are not even reacting when South is doing such things.

Referendum:
2011 referendum is the core object of the for the moment legal battle.
On December 23, NCP introduced a new amendment to referendum bill.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33553
Sudan’s parliament endorses referendum bill, SPLM protests amendments
December 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Leaders from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with other South Sudan political parties walked out of the National Assembly in protest of a new amendment introduced to South Sudan referendum bill.

But on 23, NCP redrew its amendment:
Sudan’s ruling NCP sends referendum bill back to parliament for reconsideration
December 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today made a highly unexpected move and agreed to demands by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on removing the amendments made to the controversial South Sudan referendum bill adopted by the National Assembly this week.
“We [SPLM & NCP] agreed on the fact that the law on the referendum will be resubmitted to parliament on Monday to be adopted with the article that had been removed,” the SPLM Vice president Riek Machar said.
A political observer in Khartoum Sudan Tribune that the “extraordinary” change of heart by the NCP” is driven by the fear that the SPLM would join opposition ranks in an alliance against the ruling party.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33567

Anyways, this is not to please US:

Washington accuses Sudan’s NCP of reneging on CPA accord

December 24, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – The United States is “deeply concerned” about modifications made to the South Sudan referendum bill ahead of its passage Tuesday in the national assembly and accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of breaching the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33569

What has to be understood is that CPA aim is not peace for the big people of this world… It is a tool to open Sudan regime to democracy. I do agree with the objective. But counting on South Sudan leaders and especially SPLM to be a democratic rone actor in Sudan… Well, you better look at it twice.
I know the other and especially Northern opposition parties are “bad people” (they are basically Islamic radical based parties) but taking SPLM for something more than SPLA…
Let’s have a look at the 2010 elections first and see what comes out, how SPLA, which should be the army of a country and not an armed group or political militia, will act and react to all the power changes.
From ground, it is far from being done peacefully yet.

And yet the funny look like news:

In Juba police commissioner has ordered all shisha/water pipes material to be destroyed as he said: shisha tobacco is like heroin.
I love when anti arab campaigns are run at such an intellectual level. Especially when it comes from guys who are managing semi alcoholic addict troops…
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Old 12-26-2009   #31
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Default It’s not because it’s Xmass and I have a hangover that Sudan gets better.

It’s a shame but it’s like this.

Depending on the sources, Salva Kiir is either concern that Sudan may go at war again, either encouraging his people to be “prepared”.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international...la-guerre-.php

For APLM/SPLA, not being at war is highly dangerous. As they are just not good into governing a country they do not care of (at least the people), they need to regain legitimacy.
As the elections are basically a fake exercise to make sure that SPLA is legally in power, SPLM has to administrate the country. Unfortunately, we are far from Nairobi and the cozy houses they use to live in for decades. So a good war with North would be the best solution for them to go back to Nairobi in all legitimacy.

Just to confort this feeling, ICG released an exellent report on Jongley ethnic fightings.
(Some comments from Sudan Tribune, please visit ICG web page for full report)

Quote:
The think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) in a new report examines conflict in Jonglei state of Southern Sudan. The report asserts that "inter-tribal fighting, while not a new phenomenon, has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character."
Titled Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan, the paper presents research on three main conflict cycles in the state: Lou Nuer against Dinka, Lou Nuer against Murle, and Lou Nuer against Jikany Nuer. The report implies that political competition at state, regional and national levels may be exacerbating tribal conflict.
"Politics and the personalities driving them in Jonglei may be linked to broader jockeying ahead of both elections and the referendum," asserts the ICG paper. "Some see the contentious debates over state leadership as an attempt to undermine Governor Manyang and alter the ethnic balance of power. Objections were also raised over his appointment of five state ministers, reportedly because they were ‘secondclass SPLM’ and supporters of Vice President Riek Machar. This hints at broader competition for paramount leadership of the Nuer, an unofficial position held by Machar, the highest ranking Nuer in the GoSS."
Here, we are far from the ethnic clash between pastoralist and displaced people. The political nature of South Sudan internal conflicts is fully taken in account.
Yes, war between former SPLA and SAF supporters is still going on. As in so many other countries (like Rwanda, DRC…) poorly educated people living from a harsh peace of land are abused and their natural feeling of attachment for their land (their resources, economical and social) is used for complex political battles between elites.



As CPA comes to its end, UN Secretary General took radical decisions:
Georg Charpentier from Findland has been nominated Deputy Special Representative, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator.
While General Jasbir Lidder from India has been nominated as Deputy Special Representative.

Good bye the nice guys doing nothing to not unpleased Khartoum. Welcome the European heavy Weight…
Guess who is funding the elections?

The road to Sudan, United or divided, as a Peaceful Nation is long…
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Old 12-30-2009   #32
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Default And China funded democracy…

It looks like a joke but it isn’t. China just granted 3 millions for Sudan elections.

China grants three million USD for Sudan’s election
Quote:
The announcement was made today by the Deputy Chairman of the National Commission for the Elections ((NCE), Mr. Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, who received in his office the Chinese ambassador to Sudan Mr. Li Chengwen.
Following the Chengwen reiterated China’s support for the electoral process in Sudan and expressed the hope that the election will lead to the democratic transformation, in order to achieves stability and development. He also praised the developing relationship between China and Sudan in all fields
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33611
Apparently the US push on China, in Africa, to become more and more a “normal” donor and power in Africa had some results.
Also, most of China investments in Oil are in North Sudan… So United Sudan does looks like something they may be interested in.

After some difficulties, the referendum bill has been approved:

Sudan referendum bill finally sees the light
Quote:
Sudan official news agency (SUNA) said that the national assembly adopted articles 27 and 67 dealing with voter registration centres and the criteria by which a Southerners in the North.
Under the law, south Sudanese living outside the south and born before January 1, 1956, the date of Sudan’s independence, must vote in the south.
But south Sudanese living outside the south and born after January 1, 1956 would be able to vote in their place of residence, whether in the north or abroad.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33630

I’ll try to come with a copy of the bill. But the issue is still not clear and closed. Who are the South Sudanese livings in North? How many are they? What liberty do they have to actually go to South to vote?
Referendum battle is not ended yet.
But first things first: Presidential and general elections. On January 10th, the candidates should be announced. This candidate nomination will probably tell us long on the direction South Sudan will take. Will we witness only former military from SPLA (most probable scenario) or will we see the up rising of a real civilian political class?
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Old 12-30-2009   #33
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MA,
What impact has Russian envoy Mikhail Margelov's December visit had ?

RIA Novosti
recently quoted Margelov where he opined there was no one to replace Bashir as president in April.

If Bashir goes, China will have a smooth arms deal in place. Hmmm, will Russia then pull out of their UN role

Regards, Stan
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Old 01-04-2010   #34
M-A Lagrange
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Default Like in a dream...

Bashir expresses hope for unity in 2011 referndum, promises Darfur peace

January 3, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, today expressed hope that southern Sudanese will vote for unity in a self-determination referendum scheduled to take place in January next year.
"Days are going towards the holding of elections (…) and will come the date of referendum where (people) have to say their word without pressure. We hope, with determination, that unity would be the fruit of peace and its biggest reward," he said
"We promise you that the peace circle will be complete, God willing, so as to be a really comprehensive peace that will soon be enjoyed by the beloved parts of Darfur and its steadfast and generous people" Bashir said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33672

Either Bashir lost his mind about Darfur, either US and Chinese lobby is extremely strong. As I said since the beginning, South wants independence but they are more and more the only one. But as long it’s only Bashir who calls for unity, we are far from a unity option in 2011.

I was at a SPLM rally this week end and funny or not, they opened the meeting with the fact that 2010 will be the year of partition. May be, realizing after they had UN guest, they came back to 2010 the year for elections, but local, not national. Those presidential elections look more and more as a complete joke.

Actually the states with more than 100% of voter registered refuse to send their data to Khartoum to the NEC. They are saying they did not well do the census. Yes, right, that is true… But guys: why do you do #### work at the beginning and then look for a pretext to go for war?

Anyway, some candidates are coming, starting by my favorite for the moment
Hassan Tourabi announced he nominated Abdullah Deng Nial as Popular Congress Party. He will run as independent. (AFP news)
Abdullah Deng Nial is from South and is a former John Garang family member… (PCP information)

Let’s go for Rock’n Roll… An extreme extremist candidate and a former Garang family member… Presidential elections will be wild. I love this: a southerner radical Muslim running for united Sudan presidential elections…
I am waiting for what GoSS will come with: a Northerner Christian preaching unilateral declaration of independence for South?

Stan, I'am going on patrol for a week so sorry for not responding immediatly. But interresting question in deed.
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Old 01-10-2010   #35
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Default You go away from office for 5 days and crazy stuff happens…

That ‘s normal I’ve been told but still, I have difficulties to go with it sometimes.
I'll make 2 post as too many stuff happened.

First of all, the coming elections:

Quote:
Sudan’s URRP leader to run for presidency in 2010
The Umma Reform and Renewal Party (URRP) announced today that it has nominated its leader Mubarak Al-Fadil to run for president in the April 2010 elections making it the third party in the country to name its candidate.
Al-Fadil was appointed by Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir as a presidential adviser for economic affairs in 2002 before being removed in October 2004. He has became one of the fiercest critics of the NCP ever since.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33680

Quote:
SPLM ends nomination of candidates in Sudan
The leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) today confirmed ending of the nomination of candidates aspiring for parliamentary and executive seats as state governors across the country.
"Their names will be made public no later than 14 January 2010 after thorough discussions from political bureau," he said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33690

As I said previously, officials actually in post will have to resign to conduct electoral campaign. If that’s not a problem for North opposition (they are not in power) and Bashir (he just doesn’t care), this is a huge security breach for SPLM in South. They better choose wisely.

Then the referendum
It’s not me who say that, for ones, but:

Quote:
Sudanese NCP official criticizes referendum law as ‘recipe for war’

The Sudanese presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani and the leader of the National Congress parliamentary bloc criticized a portion of the referendum law adopted in the national assembly last month saying it contains a ‘recipe of war’ in it.
Al-Attabani voiced doubts about the meaning of a partnership with a “secessionist movement that does not even recognize Sudan’s independence”. He said the SPLM is proposing the New Sudan project which he described as an incriminating proposal because it “criminalizes the history of Sudan and does not even recognize its independence”.
The NCP official also accused the SPLM of failure because of lack of clarity in putting forward the New Sudan project adding that this is also due to the paralysis of its political will.
He also referred to the Juba conference held last September under the auspices of the SPLM which included Northern opposition parties saying that it lost its moral legitimacy and was effectively a venue to put the NCP on trial.
And then came the crazy news:
South Sudan independence a “reality”, NCP official says
Al-Dardiri Mohamed Ahmed, a leading figure at the NCP, was quoted by local press as saying that the separation of the south from the north became the “reality and inevitable” blaming the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) for this outcome.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33731

To be realistic, at the moment, there are 8 tanks and ACP, illegally imported from Kenya by GoSS that are stuck in the mud on Juba road guarded by SPLA beating up SAF soldiers… I am not sure they will wait for referendum to go at war.

PS: Stan, I do not forget your question. It’s coming. Give me time, I’ve several hundreds mails to respond to and a shower to take.
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Old 01-10-2010   #36
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Default What I love with Sudan, it’s they just do not know how to lie:

Quote:
Government slams foreign organizations’ report on return to war in Sudan
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry criticized a conclusion reached by some NGOs operating in southern Sudan that said that Sudan may be heading for a new cycle of war under the current prevailing conditions in the South.
The report, "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan", was written on behalf of ten international non-governmental organization. It said that the upsurge of violence during the last year "could escalate even further and become one of the biggest emergencies in Africa in 2010."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33719

10 NGO call for peace as they see war coming and what Khartoum says: you are wrong!
Hey guys, just say: yes SPLM is not capable to enforce peace. That’s the same and closer to reality that just saying no. If NCP stays in power, they will just let the situation go worst anyway.

I spend the week talking with tribal leaders and elders. They all are on the path of war. Not against the government but against the neighbors with cattle… They’re just waiting the election campaign and the lack of authority to go for it, when it’s not already done.
Quote:
Fighting in Warrap state leaves at least 139 dead
Clashes between Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups this week in Warrap state left at least 139 people dead. The fighting, purportedly over cattle, also left at least 90 wounded and several thousands head of cattle looted.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33707
Quote:
NGOs urge Security Council to consider more resources for UNMISA group of aid agencies issued a joint report today that urged the UN Security Council to consider whether the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) needs more resources, pointing out that civilians in South Sudan are at risk, particularly in rural areas.
"The UN Security Council (UNSC) should emphasize that protecting civilians must be a priority for UNMIS and consider whether UNMIS needs more resources to meet its mandated obligations," states the NGOs’ Joint Briefing Paper issued today.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33709

Reminds me some bad times from DRC… The last 2 years actually!

More seriously, South Sudan is facing a real threat that will undermine any form of government in the coming future: ethnical fascism.
I know, it’s not politically correct to speak like this but the main problem all over the place is the Dinka tendency to believe that South Sudan belongs to them. Last year, most of the killings were due to Dinka and other tribes clashes. This year, it will be the same. Where I am, the only clashes taken in account by the government are the ones involving Dinka. I even went to a place where you had a chief for the local people and a Dinka chief to make the link between SPLA and the local chief.
According to me, South Sudan is a good example of the diseases of nationalism and failures of nation building: ethnical fascism legitimized by fake elections made in the name of peace.
SPLA should be a national army but it’s a Dinka army used by “politicians” to earn and eat the economical benefits of the war. You better be a Dinka or protecting Dinka interests in South Sudan if you want to live long…
The people I met on the ground were just afraid of SPLA. The only one who were not, were those with enough fire power to fight back...

What we really do not know to do is ending small wars. Backing up and training guys to fight in the jungle or freezing mountains… We’re all the best. But finding a path to stability and functional administration… We’re just a bunch of losers.

There is some highly theoretical work to be done on the subject.
I take a shower and come back.
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Old 01-11-2010   #37
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Default Stan, here is your response

Quote:
Russian special envoy remarks on Bashir’s reelection draw fire
The Sudanese political forces reacted angrily to statements made by Russian special envoy Mikhail Margelov in which he appeared to be endorsing president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir for another term in the upcoming presidential elections.
“I have not yet seen this alternative [to Bashir] even back in January when I had to convince [our] western partners that the arrest warrant by International Criminal Court (ICC) to arrest the Sudanese president is not viable and unrealistic” Margelov was quoted as saying in response to a question on availability of other candidates to run for president against Bashir.
Mariam Al-Mahdi, a senior figure in the Umma national party, deplored statements by Margelov saying that the choice of who to become president should be made by the Sudanese people.
“The Russian envoy has little understanding of the Sudanese political arena. He has limited his dialogue during his tenure to the two partners [in GoNU NCP & SPLM] so all he really saw was Bashir” the daughter of the former prime minister said.
The leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi expressed “surprise” over Margelov’s position but downplayed its significance.
“The Russians have only recently been acquainted with democracy and are still carrying the burden of totalitarian rule. What he [Margelov] said has no impact on the ground and with no weight” Al-Turabi said.
“He [Margelov] did not meet with other political parties besides the ones in power or create channels of communication with us so his understanding is lacking. He knows nothing about Sudan or its problems like in South or Darfur or even the country’s history and what happened in the last twenty years [since Bashir came to power],” the Islamist opposition leader added.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33409

Actually Margelov comments are quite relevant and western powers do think the same; even USA. That is the main problem in fact, if not Bashir who else?

Basically, for the moment, Russia is providing the air transport to the UN (As usual). Up to now, MI8 pilots were mainly playing Khartoum game. It has been a hell to get the helicopters on some places long the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. But now, things are getting better…

Quote:
Russia has to open consulate in South Sudan – envoy
Russia should open a consulate in the southern Sudan capital as over 20 countries have their offices there, said Mikhail Margelov the special envoy to Sudan in statements to Russian journalists.
"This is not the first year that the idea of opening a Russian consulate in Southern Sudan in Juba has been discussed, and I am deeply convinced that this should be done and not delayed," reported the Russian RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33405

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

Quote:
China has been thanked by Kenyan government for its financial support for the construction of a road and rail way channel for Sudanese Oil to Lamu harbor in Kenya. AFP January 6 2010.
For the moment it's Port Sudan which is the main point for Oil export. This tells long about the efforts put to get South Sudan on tracks.
The only clouds I see, there is actually a conflict inside GoSS and SPLM/SPLA between pro Kenya and pro Uganda.
The coming elections will tell us who will win that battle. Uganda is actually having some strong positions in South Sudan. The LRA hunt has allow Museweni to send an important number of troops inside South Sudan. It's difficult for me to not see the Kagame mentor not applying Rwanda tactic to basically militarily colonize South Sudan. LRA looks like another fake FDLR threat to me…
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Old 01-11-2010   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M-A Lagrange View Post

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!
MA,
This is exactly what I was thinking. If Russia goes, the Chinese will be dead on their heals. Setting up a consulate means they are there to stay and guarantee a place for special envoy Margelov to watch the elections
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Old 01-12-2010   #39
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WFP warns against hunger coming... And they are right;

Quote:
Sudan: UN agency warns of massive food deficit in southern region11 January 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today that Southern Sudan is facing a massive food deficit fuelled by drought and widespread insecurity.
The warning comes as Sudan marks the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended two decades of conflict between the central government in Khartoum and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
“With tribal tensions reportedly mounting, there could be similar disruptions to vital food distributions in 2010,” warned the agency, which hopes to feed a total of some 11 million people across the entire country this year.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...1-unnews03.htm

The only thing is that I was present to one of the many meetings WFP had with donors. And to be frank, they were just the worst advocate in the world for their cause. Their argument was: we are WFP give us money so we will distribute food.
If I was donor I would just say: NO! GO BACK AND DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
But they are right...

Just for the pleasure to be politically paranoide, in the South Green belt, they exported 100 trucks of 25 tonnes of food to North Uganda this year, according to a State ministry of Agriculture.
Even if they did half of it, apparently Ugandan market is much more interresting than South sudan market. May be because in North Uganda there is also hunger but the people have money and the government is not broke?
But as I said, I'm a political paranoide.

Well, you also have to had this:
Quote:
Sudan Stakes New Claim on Uganda LandThe meeting that was convened to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and Sudan turned chaotic after the Sudanese team tabled a document claiming more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim “ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries
Muki said the area continues westward to West Eria hill, Lefori and down to Wano, all places in Moyo that have previously been free of controversy.
Other areas claimed in the document include Dwani wano, Goburi land, Bori, Liwolo, Koriwa and several hills and streams.
On the site where the construction of an MTN mast was halted, Muki said the area was called Koturume and lies in the land of the Lito’ba clan from Sudan.
According to Muki, they stopped the construction of the Afoji-Lere road by Moyo district because it passes through Dwani Wano, an area, he said, was occupied by Ugandan refugees following the outbreak of the 1979 war.
“We received you warmly and allowed you to settle. Now the local authorities in Moyo have extended claim over Dwani Wano. The land is undoubtedly Kuku land,” Muki said.
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=52828

As I said, I can't believe Ugandan army entered South Sudan just for the pleasure to hunt LRA. Actually, if you look at it closely, they are securing the Great Equatoria Green Belt. And USAID just decided to fund agriculture in South Sudan Great Equatoria Green Belt.
How to put it nicely?
US do not trust GoSS enought for security and does have the same analyses of the situation than Oxfam: South is falling into war and elections will not make any changes.
Also, they need to feed Museweny apparently. Democratic opening does not seem to be for everyone.

Let say it's a coincidence and not the too well known Kagame strategy to colonise a weak neigboor and his huge natural ressources...
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Old 01-12-2010   #40
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MA,
I just coincidentally finished a documentary translated from French to Estonian on the GoSS.

The Frenchman (MSF) claims that people are still being set on fire and villages plundered to drive the population north.

Although there was much USA-bashing for the current regime in Sudan, in closing they mentioned the Chinese ready to provide "economic aid" with the new elections.
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