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Old 01-24-2010   #21
marct
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Hi Rex,

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Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
It is really easy to be cynical about the prospects for development in the so-called "third world"--especially if you ignore the actual data on third world development over the last thirty years or so.
I'll admit, I'm enough of a particularist to dislike generalist terms like the "third world". I've actually looked at a fair bit of the development work, although mainly in Africa, but I do have some problems with the indicators.

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Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
In most places, we've seen striking reductions in mortality, and improvements in nutrition, education, and real disposable income--largely due to local efforts, but in some cases (notably the reductions in infant and child mortality as a consequence of vaccination and education) due to critical contributions from the international community.
Which is all well and good. we saw exactly the same type of drop in child mortality 100 years ago in Nigeria, but what is not generally talked about is two things. First, is the drop brought about by permanent changes in the environment (e.g. swamp draining, massive but long last infrastructure, etc.) or is it brought about by external applications (e.g. vaccines)? The source of the change is crucial since external changes cannot be assumed to be lasting, while local changes, especially environmental, can be.

The second key point is that there is a culture lag relating to perceptions of how many children are "acceptable" and "necessary", and this is where the time element in the changes leading to drops in infant mortality becomes critical. It usually takes about 60 years for cultural perceptions of the required number of children per family to change to meet the "new" environment (BTW, as a point of clarification, I'm talking about population-level here).

Once you start to get these culture level changes going, usually 30-40 years and solidified by 60-70, you have a related problem which is controlling the birth rate via non-environmental factors (e.g. birth control). That's another culture lag problem, so you end up with a fairly big population bulge.

You mentioned changes in nutrition, education and real disposable income, so let me take up some of these. Nutrition is especially important, especially in early childhood, but it requires a number of different factors in your food production / distribution cycles - i.e. a fair diversity of foods being widely available and affordable. Education may or may not be useful as an indicator, it depends on education for what and the quality of the education, and Tom's point about setting up a diasporic brain drain is well taken (consider the Canada - US relationship on this one, and when it flips).

Let's talk about real disposable income, then. What resource potentials does it actually indicate and what will it be spent on? This is critical, especially if it is combined with a culture that tends towards kinetic "answers" to political problems. Consider, by way of example, the Muslim Brotherhood - well educated, fairly decent disposable income and a tendency to use it in kinetic terms, at least for the first 40-50 years of the operation. Nutrition, education and income do not automatically equate to a peaceful nation state .

Tom touched on the slave country problem, and it really is at the root of a lot of the cultural problems Haiti is facing. I'm not (quite) as pessimistic as Tom about there being a solution, but it isn't going to be easy at all, and would require some pretty massive socio-cultural engineering. Let's just take the familiarism that Tom raises which, BTW, is the only same response in that type of situation. How do you expand people's moral "inner curcle" to include people who are in the country, but not of your or an allied bloodline?

Historically, this has only been done via some form of cross-cutting (across bloodlines) allegiance system. Examples include secret societies, religions, "class consciousness" (although that tends to degenerate into alliance groups of bloodlines), fictive kinship systems and external enemies ("we either hang together or hang separately).

The latter, an external enemy, won't work in Haiti because it is what actually established a large part of the current culture in the first place (fear of invasion and re-enslavement, extensive militarization early on, invasion of the DR, etc.). Secret societies and fictive kinship systems are already a part of Haitian society and have a rather checkered past (tonton macoute anyone?); at any rate, they have tended to be too localized to effectively cross bloodlines unlike the lodge systems in west Africa, the north-west coast of BC or the Masons et alii.

This leaves us with religions (iffy) and class consciousness (quite fragmented and highly diverse). And, as a note, the type of class consciousness that operated to stabilize many of the western European countries was a fairly broad one with significant size in the population (look at the development of the middle class figures for western Europe in the 17th - 19th centuries), and most of them were formed around a pseudo-feudalist model which would have problems in Haiti.

One system that might work is some form of a cantonment system (think Switzerland in the mid-16th to mid-17th century with shades relating to France in the late 19th century) with cross-cuts for certain industries, religious groups and ideological groups. That, however, would require that the "national government", and pardon me while I laugh my guts out, agree to decentralize a large amount of its power and shift its electoral system. It would also require that development work be conducted at the canton level which for some groups would be fine, while others wouldn't get the necessary ROI to support their "deserving", lavish life style .

As I said, I can see some potential, but not much.

Cheers,

Marc
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Old 01-24-2010   #22
Rex Brynen
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Which is all well and good. we saw exactly the same type of drop in child mortality 100 years ago in Nigeria, but what is not generally talked about is two things.
Rather less than a hundred years ago--by most measures, Nigeria's infant mortality rate is higher than Haiti's.

In any case, unless we're going to take a morally unsustainable Malthusian position that we'll let children die off en masse, we don't have much choice in the matter, do we?

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First, is the drop brought about by permanent changes in the environment (e.g. swamp draining, massive but long last infrastructure, etc.) or is it brought about by external applications (e.g. vaccines)? The source of the change is crucial since external changes cannot be assumed to be lasting, while local changes, especially environmental, can be.
The evidence is. that vaccination, better access to primary health care, and education (especially female education) play key roles. However, these are both external (in that UNICEF, WHO, and others often play a key role in initial vaccination campaigns) and internal (in that these are almost always sustained over time by local governments).

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The second key point is that there is a culture lag relating to perceptions of how many children are "acceptable" and "necessary", and this is where the time element in the changes leading to drops in infant mortality becomes critical.
Exactly the demographic transition I referred to earlier. In Haiti the fertility rate is high, but far from the highest in the developing world. There is some evidence that a slow demographic transition is underway, and as we know from other cases this is something that can be aided through support for family planning and especially female education and labour force participation.


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Education may or may not be useful as an indicator, it depends on education for what and the quality of the education, and Tom's point about setting up a diasporic brain drain is well taken (consider the Canada - US relationship on this one, and when it flips).
I'm not sure of any country where increased primary/secondary school attendance and improved basic literacy rates can be considered a developmental negative. Yes, brain-drains are a problem--but less of a problem than an uneducated population. (I also wouldn't underestimate the very positive impact that diaspora remittances can have over multiple generations--Jordan, one of the proportionately highest exporters of semiskilled and skilled labour in the world--being a case in point.)


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Consider, by way of example, the Muslim Brotherhood - well educated, fairly decent disposable income and a tendency to use it in kinetic terms, at least for the first 40-50 years of the operation. Nutrition, education and income do not automatically equate to a peaceful nation state .
Again, I'm not sure of the argument--that populations should be kept poor so that they won't do bad things with increased resources? (I would quibble in your characterization of the MB too--in general the movement has been quite peaceful, except where faced with massive state repression or foreign occupation.)

Quote:
Tom touched on the slave country problem, and it really is at the root of a lot of the cultural problems Haiti is facing.
We don't do governance reform and rule-of-law well--its partly a cultural problem, but much more so a problem of entrenched interests and massive disparities of wealth and power, coupled with often inappropriate external models. Indeed, it is that context of years of exploitation, poverty, and inequality that help to shape Haitian political culture. There was, however, a broad consensus that (very gradual) progress was being made, pre-earthquake.

Again, I'm certainly not painting a rosy picture--I think the odds of disappointing results are quite high. However, so have the odds of a great many human endeavors!
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Old 01-24-2010   #23
Tom Kratman
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Hi Rex,



I'll admit, I'm enough of a particularist to dislike generalist terms like the "third world". I've actually looked at a fair bit of the development work, although mainly in Africa, but I do have some problems with the indicators.



Which is all well and good. we saw exactly the same type of drop in child mortality 100 years ago in Nigeria, but what is not generally talked about is two things. First, is the drop brought about by permanent changes in the environment (e.g. swamp draining, massive but long last infrastructure, etc.) or is it brought about by external applications (e.g. vaccines)? The source of the change is crucial since external changes cannot be assumed to be lasting, while local changes, especially environmental, can be.

The second key point is that there is a culture lag relating to perceptions of how many children are "acceptable" and "necessary", and this is where the time element in the changes leading to drops in infant mortality becomes critical. It usually takes about 60 years for cultural perceptions of the required number of children per family to change to meet the "new" environment (BTW, as a point of clarification, I'm talking about population-level here).

Once you start to get these culture level changes going, usually 30-40 years and solidified by 60-70, you have a related problem which is controlling the birth rate via non-environmental factors (e.g. birth control). That's another culture lag problem, so you end up with a fairly big population bulge.

You mentioned changes in nutrition, education and real disposable income, so let me take up some of these. Nutrition is especially important, especially in early childhood, but it requires a number of different factors in your food production / distribution cycles - i.e. a fair diversity of foods being widely available and affordable. Education may or may not be useful as an indicator, it depends on education for what and the quality of the education, and Tom's point about setting up a diasporic brain drain is well taken (consider the Canada - US relationship on this one, and when it flips).

Let's talk about real disposable income, then. What resource potentials does it actually indicate and what will it be spent on? This is critical, especially if it is combined with a culture that tends towards kinetic "answers" to political problems. Consider, by way of example, the Muslim Brotherhood - well educated, fairly decent disposable income and a tendency to use it in kinetic terms, at least for the first 40-50 years of the operation. Nutrition, education and income do not automatically equate to a peaceful nation state .

Tom touched on the slave country problem, and it really is at the root of a lot of the cultural problems Haiti is facing. I'm not (quite) as pessimistic as Tom about there being a solution, but it isn't going to be easy at all, and would require some pretty massive socio-cultural engineering. Let's just take the familiarism that Tom raises which, BTW, is the only same response in that type of situation. How do you expand people's moral "inner curcle" to include people who are in the country, but not of your or an allied bloodline?

Historically, this has only been done via some form of cross-cutting (across bloodlines) allegiance system. Examples include secret societies, religions, "class consciousness" (although that tends to degenerate into alliance groups of bloodlines), fictive kinship systems and external enemies ("we either hang together or hang separately).

The latter, an external enemy, won't work in Haiti because it is what actually established a large part of the current culture in the first place (fear of invasion and re-enslavement, extensive militarization early on, invasion of the DR, etc.). Secret societies and fictive kinship systems are already a part of Haitian society and have a rather checkered past (tonton macoute anyone?); at any rate, they have tended to be too localized to effectively cross bloodlines unlike the lodge systems in west Africa, the north-west coast of BC or the Masons et alii.

This leaves us with religions (iffy) and class consciousness (quite fragmented and highly diverse). And, as a note, the type of class consciousness that operated to stabilize many of the western European countries was a fairly broad one with significant size in the population (look at the development of the middle class figures for western Europe in the 17th - 19th centuries), and most of them were formed around a pseudo-feudalist model which would have problems in Haiti.

One system that might work is some form of a cantonment system (think Switzerland in the mid-16th to mid-17th century with shades relating to France in the late 19th century) with cross-cuts for certain industries, religious groups and ideological groups. That, however, would require that the "national government", and pardon me while I laugh my guts out, agree to decentralize a large amount of its power and shift its electoral system. It would also require that development work be conducted at the canton level which for some groups would be fine, while others wouldn't get the necessary ROI to support their "deserving", lavish life style .

As I said, I can see some potential, but not much.

Cheers,

Marc
Interestingly enough, in 1980 I went to the Infantry Officer Basic Course (IOBC; it has a different name now) with two Haitians, one of them from TonTon Macout.

Yes, I found that rather odd, too.
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Old 01-24-2010   #24
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Again, I'm certainly not painting a rosy picture--I think the odds of disappointing results are quite high. However, so have the odds of a great many human endeavors!
Let's try this; give us a plan. What has to be done? What force must we apply? What ROE? Who do we need to kill or terrorize, at least in general? Where is the consensus for applying that society-changing force? (Note: We appear to lack the fortitude even to shoot looters.) Who shall exercise sovereignty over the place and why will that work better? How will we keep the brain drain from occurring if we try to educate them? What will they do for money? Why, in this case, can we expect that most or nearly all aid will not simply be stolen or embezzled? (I am often quite amazed at the degree to which the people who object to trickle-down economics tacitly accept trickle-down aid.) How do we keep farmers employed farming when they cannot compete with free food? What is the reason to believe that, this time, the west will have the sticktoitiveness to keep any such effort going? And if none, or none that are credible, why bother?

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Old 01-24-2010   #25
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Let's try this; give us a plan. What has to be done? What force must we apply? What ROE? Who do we need to kill or terrorize, at least in general?
Sheesh, Tom--we're talking about an aid-to-civil-powers, post-disaster reconstruction and development effort here. As a general rule, killing and terrorizing large groups of folks isn't what we're trying to do.
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Old 01-24-2010   #26
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Sheesh, Tom--we're talking about an aid-to-civil-powers, post-disaster reconstruction and development effort here. As a general rule, killing and terrorizing large groups of folks isn't what we're trying to do.
No, it isn't what we're trying to do. Why not, though? We've tried all the soft, senstive, caring, hand-wringing, etc., etc., ad nauseam approaches and they _never_ work. Oh, sure, sometimes they'll give the appearance of working, for a while, and usually only a short while.

I, generally speaking, don't like pimping my books. On the other hand, I hate redoing things that don't need to be redone. The following is from D Minus X, forthcoming:

Quote:
“Oh, God,” moaned Adam, seated between Abdi and Gheddi, “what is this?” The boy covered his mouth and nose with his hands and began to cough and sneeze from the thick dust that swirled around the bus. His kidneys were in agony from the pounding they’d taken from the combination of bad shocks and worse road.
“I believe this is called ‘foreign aid,’” Labaan answered.
The captive looked confused, and from more than the aftereffects of the drugs he’d been given.
“Foreign aid,” Labaan repeated, with a sneer. “You know: When guilty feeling Euros and Americans shell out money, ostensibly to help the people, but the money all ends up in the hands of sundry corrupt rulers and their relatives?”
“I don’t…”
“Understand?” Labaan stood up and, using the bus seats to hold himself erect against the bouncing, walked to the rear where Adam sat. Abdi moved over to open a space for Labaan to sit.
“We are travelling on what is supposed to be an all-weather, asphalt highway. Money was budgeted for it, no doubt by a consortium of Europeans and Americans, governmental and nongovernmental, both. No doubt, too, a generous provision for utterly necessary bribes was built in to every bid…well, except maybe for the Americans. For that matter, probably no American concerns bid on the project, since their government is death on paying bribes if they catch someone at it. Such an unrealistic people.”
If ever someone wore a smile that was three fourth’s sadness, that someone was Labaan. “Now let me tell you what happened with all the money that was supposed to go for the road. First, some very high ranking people in this country took the twenty or so percent that was factored into the bids for bribery. Then someone important’s first cousin showed up, waved some official looking papers, sprouted something in the local language that the contractor couldn’t understand. Then, in really excellent French, that cousin explained all manner of dire probabilities and suggested he could help. That cousin was then hired as a consultant. He was never seen again, except on payday.
“An uncle then showed up, in company with four hundred and thirty seven more or less distant family members, every one of which was hired and perhaps a third of which showed up for work on any given day, except for payday.”
The bus’ right front tire went into a remarkably deep and sharp pothole, causing the metal of the frame to strike asphalt and Labaan to wince with both the nerve-destroying sound and the blow, transmitted from hole to tire to almost shockless suspension to frame to barely padded and falling apart seat to him.
“A guerilla chieftain,” he continued, once the pain had passed, “perhaps of no particular relationship to the ruling family, then arrived, offering to provide security with his band of armed men. He was, at first, turned down. And then several pieces of heavy construction equipment burned one night. The guerillas were quickly hired. They never showed up either, except for their leader, at payday, but no more equipment was burned.
“Then came the tranzis, the Transnational Progressives, average age perhaps twenty-one or twenty-two, and knowing absolutely nothing about road construction. Indeed, most of them wouldn’t have even known what it meant to work. Rich boys and girls, trust fund babies, out to feel good about themselves by saving the world. They filled up every hotel room and hired the few competent, and critical, local engineers to do important things like act as chauffeurs and translators.”
The bus had now arrived at a washboard section of the road. Labaan kept speaking, but the steady thumpkareechsprong of the road and bus made his words warble almost as much as a helicopter pilot’s over a radio.
“More cousins came, and they, of course, had to be hired as consultants, as well.
“At about this time, the accountant for the project arrived and explained that it could no longer be done to the standard contracted for. The substrate began to suffer and the thickness of the road to be reduced. The demands for money, for the hiring of spurious workers and spurious services, never ended. With each mile of road, that substrate became less to standard and that surface became thinner.”
Labaan shook his head. “And then came the first rain…”
At that moment, both front tires went into a large, more or less linear hole, adding the screech of metal as the fender twisted to all the more usual sounds.
“As I said: ‘Foreign Aid.’ And it doesn’t matter a whit whether it come from NGOs, quangos, governments, or rock stars; it never does a bit of good. Never. Fifty-seven billion United States dollars come to Black Africa every year in aid, official and unofficial, Adam. Fifty billion is deposited to foreign accounts by our rulers.”
******

That's a fairly accurate description. Can you offer a better solution to that than sustained firepower, ruthlessly applied? Well...okay...maybe ropes and trees.

Addendum: It occurs to me that there aren't enough trees in Haiti to hang everyone we'd need to hang, so shooting to death by musketry will have to do.

Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-24-2010 at 07:56 PM. Reason: Add quote marks hopefully in right place as last paragraph maybe opinion.
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Old 01-24-2010   #27
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Default The Final Solution to the Haitian Problem

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from TK
That's a fairly accurate description. Can you offer a better solution to that than sustained firepower, ruthlessly applied? Well...okay...maybe ropes and trees.

Addendum: It occurs to me that there aren't enough trees in Haiti to hang everyone we'd need to hang, so shooting to death by musketry will have to do.
will rise or fall on its own merits without need for me to say anything.
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Old 01-24-2010   #28
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That's a fairly accurate description. Can you offer a better solution to that than sustained firepower, ruthlessly applied? Well...okay...maybe ropes and trees.

Addendum: It occurs to me that there aren't enough trees in Haiti to hang everyone we'd need to hang, so shooting to death by musketry will have to do.
As jmm99 so eloquently put it--no comment necessary. Perhaps a mod might want to close the thread before someone gets the impression that the Small Wars Journal has become the Mass Lynching Journal?
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Old 01-24-2010   #29
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Exclamation 'Harsh in Haiti: a light discussion'

Moderators Note

Created to house some recent postings on another thread, which discussed the Haiti-Canada linkage: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=9534

This thread was created as some have suggested that a solution to the problems of Haiti is to be harsh.

Posts here will be moderated if their tone verges on what can be perceived inside and outside SWC as advocating lynching (taken from Rex).
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Old 01-24-2010   #30
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By the way, no, I don't mean lynching. Trials are indicated. There are, however, valid reasons why certain crimes, in emergency circumstances, are traditionally capital and why the fleeing felon rule is often rightly applied. What is it but murder, after all, when someone steals life-saving aid in an emergency?
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Old 01-24-2010   #31
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we now can exclude mass lynching.

So, what should the rules of engagement be (not "are" - I know those), from your moral and ethical standpoint, with respect to the felons about which you are concerned ?

Drilling down to your bus vignette in post #19 - a Narrative which Cabral would probably recite (if still alive), or one that I would recite if in Labaan's sandals (if he could afford them) - what are your solutions to the various problems recited ?

Hopefully now a better level of discourse.

Mike
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Old 01-24-2010   #32
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Default As I said in my previous posts

I am somewhat perplexed by the Haitian response to the earthquake flip flopping between slightly more optimistic and slightly more pessimistic. Haitian culture has been characterized by folks who make it a point to study Haiti and who have spent a lot more time there than I have as "predatory." Following Operation Uphold Democracy I wrote predicting that we (the international community) would have to return to Haiti in a decade or so. A decade it was. Tom makes the point here that the "international community" has always lacked the will to do what is required to help Haiti overcome its predatory culture. That, indeed, has been the case although sometimes it has been that we don't know what to do. Hence frustration. Rex comments that there was a general consensus pre-earthquake that Haiti was beginning to get its act together - something I referred to in my earlier post. But, Rex, was it a really well-founded consensus or simply wishful thinking?

Cheers

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Old 01-24-2010   #33
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Tom makes the point here that the "international community" has always lacked the will to do what is required to help Haiti overcome its predatory culture. That, indeed, has been the case although sometimes it has been that we don't know what to do. Hence frustration. Rex comments that there was a general consensus pre-earthquake that Haiti was beginning to get its act together - something I referred to in my earlier post. But, Rex, was it a really well-founded consensus or simply wishful thinking?
I think it was more than wishful thinking (as the HDI indicators suggest), but at the same time very, very modest and very fragile progress.

Part of the problem has always been, frankly, national leadership—something over which the international community has no real influence. Preval has the advantage that he has been somewhat less willing to use some of the dysfunctional methods of his predecessors, and has greater appreciation for the technical complexities of many of the challenges at hand. On the other hand, he's hardly a charismatic leader of the sort that one would hope for in any effort to rally the population for the long, difficult (and yes, frustrating task) of national reconstruction.
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Old 01-24-2010   #34
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Default That is my impression of Preval, too.

However, the human talent IN Haiti has been and remains pretty poor. Talented Haitians go to the US and Canada where they join the diaspora and contribute money but, generally, do not return to Haiti to lend their talents on a permanent basis. In the UNMIH era I recall one who attempted to do so, served as Prime Minister for a while, and was forced out by Pres Aristide. We need to recall that Pres Preval was Aristide's successor as President and, after having been a strong supporter, was totally undercut by Aristide ...

So, how much hope can one have that Haiti will rise to the challenge? How much hope can we have that the international community led by Brazil, Canada, Chile, and the US will retain its interest and will to nudge, cajole, support, train, fund, and threaten (if necessary) Haiti's leaders to themselves do the right thing?

On that cheery note

JohnT
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Old 01-24-2010   #35
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we now can exclude mass lynching.

So, what should the rules of engagement be (not "are" - I know those), from your moral and ethical standpoint, with respect to the felons about which you are concerned ?

Drilling down to your bus vignette in post #19 - a Narrative which Cabral would probably recite (if still alive), or one that I would recite if in Labaan's sandals (if he could afford them) - what are your solutions to the various problems recited ?

Hopefully now a better level of discourse.

Mike
If you mean a way to make aid go to those around the world who really need and could make good use of it _without_ at the same time demoralizing and corrupting the societies it is going to, sadly, except for things that are merely tactical, I don't _have_ any. I wish I did. I worked at this sort of thing for quite a while, tactically, commanding a CA team, also a bit on the money-raising side, and strategically/doctrinally, as de facto in house counsel (technically, Director, Rule of Law) for the PKSOI. The more I worked at it, the more hopeless I became that any real solutions were possible and practical. That said, there is something to be said for the United States, as a condition of aid, insisting on the at least partial surrender of sovereignty to the extent of allowing us to seize, try, and punish those in the recipient countries guilty of corruption that involves our money or goods or our citizens' money or goods.

I don't think we have the internal moral wherewithal for that so it strikes me as useless to contemplate doing it, by the way.

And, ere we get too very upturned-nosey at the corruption in the Third World, our NGOs and charities are all too often guilty of equal corruption, coupled with no small amount of outright fraud.

As for ROE for use of deadly force in emergency situations, we've given the order, "shoot to kill or maim looters and arsonists," within the United States within the last 42 years and, I think, more recently than that. Though I would be inclined to add to it the still lawful (generally and technically, but don't hang your hat on it) fleeing felon rule. It is critical to establish order quickly and thoroughly in circumstances where wolves (the two legged kind) are at large and people's lives depend on the aid the wolves will steal, given the chance.

The fleeing felon rule, by the way, is not a rule of summary execution. It authorizes deadly force, yes, to prevent escape, but felons (common law felons, rather) who surrender are to be arrested and taken for trial. The purpose of the rule is to keep them from escaping to commit yet more crimes. Accepting that mistakes will be made, I think it is overall a good rule, generally, and certainly in a place that was hit as Haiti was. Oddly enough, the fleeing felon rule is pretty much dead for police officers here, but still valid for civilians.

(Is there ever a place for summary execution? The UCMJ says "yes." It is very narrow, however. Look up mutiny.)

At the time of writing, I didn't realize you were a lawyer and likely know all of this. Others, however, will not.

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Old 01-25-2010   #36
jmm99
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Default What did Labaan recommend ?

Since the bus vignette and its Narrative seemed realistic to me, I thought Labaan might have some suggestions. He sounds like an interesting character.

As to shooting looters, that was part of the Detroit Riot - discussed as part of the COIN comes home thread. Ken White's unit did not find it necessary to shoot anyone, Went there, did that. "Shoot all the looters" is a good soundbite; so also "Shoot all irregular combatants".

As to the "fleeing felon" rule, some materials re: Tennessee v Garner are linked here, Tennessee v. Garner (part of the Astan ROE Change thread).

As to mutiny, I couldn't find any summary execution provisons in the Manual for Courts-Martial re: "mutiny" (searched all returns on the word). Obviously, during the active mutiny, we have a combat situation where "armed, hostile, shoot" would be a valid rule. Once the mutineers have surrendered, another story - see, Summary Execution.

True that Tony Waller was acquitted at his 1902 CM (for reasons that mostly avoided the merits); but in that case, there was more relative filth to cast at the flag grades (see J. Franklin Bell and Jacob H. Smith) than with the field and company grades who had to carry out the orders (dirty or not).

Within my own personal package of morals and ethics (and a vivid imagination), I could think of scenarios where my morals and ethics would allow summary actions (including executions) in sitations where "exigent circumstances" or "absolute necessity" exist. Others' morals and ethics would collide with mine. In general, discussing the extremes leads to extremes in discourse. In any event, "exigent circumstances" and "absolute necessity" are "jury nullification" arguments, which are thin reeds indeed. In Waller's case, they worked, but he never got to command the Corps.

Regards

Mike
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Old 01-25-2010   #37
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Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
Since the bus vignette and its Narrative seemed realistic to me, I thought Labaan might have some suggestions. He sounds like an interesting character.

As to shooting looters, that was part of the Detroit Riot - discussed as part of the COIN comes home thread. Ken White's unit did not find it necessary to shoot anyone, Went there, did that. "Shoot all the looters" is a good soundbite; so also "Shoot all irregular combatants".

As to the "fleeing felon" rule, some materials re: Tennessee v Garner are linked here, Tennessee v. Garner (part of the Astan ROE Change thread).

As to mutiny, I couldn't find any summary execution provisons in the Manual for Courts-Martial re: "mutiny" (searched all returns on the word). Obviously, during the active mutiny, we have a combat situation where "armed, hostile, shoot" would be a valid rule. Once the mutineers have surrendered, another story - see, Summary Execution.

True that Tony Waller was acquitted at his 1902 CM (for reasons that mostly avoided the merits); but in that case, there was more relative filth to cast at the flag grades (see J. Franklin Bell and Jacob H. Smith) than with the field and company grades who had to carry out the orders (dirty or not).

Within my own personal package of morals and ethics (and a vivid imagination), I could think of scenarios where my morals and ethics would allow summary actions (including executions) in sitations where "exigent circumstances" or "absolute necessity" exist. Others' morals and ethics would collide with mine. In general, discussing the extremes leads to extremes in discourse. In any event, "exigent circumstances" and "absolute necessity" are "jury nullification" arguments, which are thin reeds indeed. In Waller's case, they worked, but he never got to command the Corps.

Regards

Mike
Labaan is actually a "bad guy," except that he isn't. He's a good man doing a bad thing for the only group that matters to him, his tribe. He does have one such idea. I don't recall if it's before that passage or after. Forget the idea of African "countries," in most cases. Split them back up into their tribes. One of the things, one suspects, that leads to such bevatheft in Africa (and the problem isn't restricted to there), is that, for the most part, people simply don't care about, or don't even consider to be fully human, people of other tribes. Thus theft has all the moral connotations of stealing a dog's bone. Short version: "Why not steal? It's on behalf of my tribe."

It's not unreasonable to expect a certain, shall we say, diminution (at least) in the intensity of looting should it be ordered that looters will be shot. Of course, talk is cheap and demonstrations might be required.

I was familiar with Garner. That's why I mentioned that it was a fairly dead letter with regard to the police. It does not, on the face of it, appear to take the fleeing felon rule from privati, however. Note for the audience: you would be _SUED_ blue if you actually did it.

You didn't dig far enough. It falls under the "do utmost to prevent." In the explanatory sections you'll find: "Utmost includes the use of such force, including deadly force, as may be reasonably necessary under the circumstances to prevent and suppress a mutiny or sedition." Tack onto that that failure to do "the utmost" to suppress a mutiny is also a capital crime. "Reasonably necessary" is something of a weasel phrase, of course. It is not hard, however, to come up with scenarios where it would be reasonably necessary. Note, however, that in this age, it would be career death to actually do it, quite despite that it is a capital crime also to fail to do that utmost to suppress a mutiny.

Addendum:

By the way, with the Waller case, it is by no means clear that the Filipino porters were even subject to the UCMJ (Articles of War, back then), such that they even _could_ be in a state of legal mutiny. It strikes me as fairly obvious that it was murder.

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Old 01-25-2010   #38
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Hi Rex,

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In any case, unless we're going to take a morally unsustainable Malthusian position that we'll let children die off en masse, we don't have much choice in the matter, do we?
Much as I hate to say it, and believe me I do hate to say it, "we" have already accepted the moral position to let children die off in a Malthusian fashion. Let me expand on this one....

Foreign aid and development work can, indeed, lower the infant mortality rate; no questions there. In every case that I am aware of where this has happened, however (including Western Europe), the birth rate has only gradually dropped over a 60-70 period. I think we both agree on that and on the existence of a culture lag.

That's all fine and dandy, but what it tends to mean is that the increase in population brought about as a result of the reduction in infant mortality has several, macro-level demographic effects. First, it creates a population skewed to the lower age groups, so your population pyramid is quite wide. Second, infrastructural changes, say along the lines of the great sanitation engineering projects of the mid-19th century in Europe, also drop the mortality rate amongst all ages thereby significantly increasing the number of child bearing age people and their life expectancies.

This increase in general population leads to another cultural strain that shows up in many areas but, especially, in the economic divisions of labour. For example, male and female cultural expectations on types of employment, expectations on childrens employment, etc. This produces another round of cultural, hmmm, let's call it "negotiation" that actually tends to last longer than the family size one does. When you say something like

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There is some evidence that a slow demographic transition is underway, and as we know from other cases this is something that can be aided through support for family planning and especially female education and labour force participation.
you are quite right; it can, but only at the expense of increased cultural instability centered around gender and age grade roles in the society.

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I'm not sure of any country where increased primary/secondary school attendance and improved basic literacy rates can be considered a developmental negative. Yes, brain-drains are a problem--but less of a problem than an uneducated population. (I also wouldn't underestimate the very positive impact that diaspora remittances can have over multiple generations--Jordan, one of the proportionately highest exporters of semiskilled and skilled labour in the world--being a case in point.)
The problem comes about, in part, because of that culture lag issue. "Education", in the West, is a status marker that has managed to retain some of its equation with probable economic benefits despite the continued devaluation of educational credentials (in terms of actual "learning) of the past, say 100 years. For the US and Canada at least, we were incredibly lucky that the boom in educational opportunities also coincided with an economic boom and, when that started to go sour (late 1968 actually, but it doesn't really hit until the 1970's), educational attainment became a gatekeeper function that made it a necessary albeit insufficient condition for achieving economic success.

The same is not true in all cultures and/or societies. In crass, Keynesian terms, what is the value of a "product" when the supply is rapidly inflated? It tends to devalue the product, which is what we have seen happening time and time again with degrees. Now, the key here lies in one distinction that is not usually made, and that is the content of the education rather than the marker of the education, which is why I say that "education" is not a good marker. You can improve literacy rates, which I am all in favour of, but what are they going to read? School attendance? I'm sure that you have had students who just can't make the grade no matter how often they show up for class, I know I have.

But let me return to this content point for a moment since it is the foundation of a lot of my concerns. Our Western belief that education and economic success are tied together creates a set of expectations in our cultures, the current incarnation of which is the Gen X "sense of entitlement". What happens when the expectations run head on into the realities? The Gen X phenomenon is being met by a rather large deployment of "training seminars" for managers to learn to deal with Gen X'ers; it's a multi-million dollar business. How about what happens when these expectations hit in a society which does not have the same socially acceptable options (no, I'm not going to go into Merton's strain theory, but it's a good model).

You mentioned remittances, and that is certainly one option that reduces social strain. You get people who develop enough competence and/or the right set of requirements to enable them to succeed in an extra-social economy. They leave, thereby reducing the local strain on the social fabric, and yet at the same time they send hard money back into the local economy. It's a win-win situation in some ways .

But it has a cost at the local level by draining off local talent and, to some degree, capital. Over a decent time interval, say 50 years or so, it can work out very well as 2nd gen members of the diaspora communities go to their "native" country and invest in it - American Samoa is actually a great example of that. On the down side, during those 50+ years or so, it actually reduces the talent in the country as well as hardening the social structure.

Quote:
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Again, I'm not sure of the argument--that populations should be kept poor so that they won't do bad things with increased resources?
That's not where I'm going with the argument. What I'm trying to argue is that there are consequences for social choices and that one of the primary trade-offs is stability vs. dynamism/change. I'm not marking a moral or ethical argument .

Quote:
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We don't do governance reform and rule-of-law well--its partly a cultural problem, but much more so a problem of entrenched interests and massive disparities of wealth and power, coupled with often inappropriate external models. Indeed, it is that context of years of exploitation, poverty, and inequality that help to shape Haitian political culture. There was, however, a broad consensus that (very gradual) progress was being made, pre-earthquake.
Agreed, and that is, IMHO, part of the problem. Let me try and pull that out in evolutionary terms and at a very general level (i.e. not Haiti specific)....

When "we" decided to get out of the imposed governance business (aka de-colonization plus an entire attitude / culture change towards "imperialism"), our leaving withdrew one of the key factors leading to stability - the external "Other". Many places which got their "independence" (in quotes because it was political at the nation state level, but usually not economic), tended to fracture along long suppressed, and sometimes artificially imposed, lines.

[satirical tone]This created an opportunity for a number of organizations that had been in the "feel good" business, especially since the 19th and early 20th century style moral entrepreneurial content was now considered to be passe. You can no longer sell the London Missionary Society version of the White Man's Burden but, instead, have to recast it into a more palatable version which, coincidentally, is just helped along by all of these conveniently located failing states (many of which "we" "created" in the first place). The old Indulgences con is, once again, in full swing but this time it is backed by unprecedented media access, and one has to wonder what moral entrepreneur wants to actually get rid of the problems that allow them to live in the style to which they have rapidly become accustomed?[/satirical tone]

Okay, I'll drop the satirical tone, but if you look at the actual amount of money that reached the people it was raised to help, it tends to be a very sobering experience. I've known several groups in the aid / development business who I actually do consider quite ethical, and they all had less than a 10% administration overhead, and at least one had a 0% overhead. I'll be very interested to see what the overhead charges on on the recent Haiti telethons Those groups were actually working to solve local problems.

If we compare that with the admin overheads from some of the other groups, you have to wonder. I believe that one of the most egregious examples, since corrected to some degree, was UNICEF with an 80% overhead (or somewhere in that area) and who, by the 1990's, appear to have been spending the vast majority of their money on conferences and symposia (cf. Chattering International: How UNICEF Fails the World’s Poorest Children, James Le Fenu, 1993).

Was progress being made? Certainly everything I had heard said that it was, albeit very slowly (which, BTW, I consider to be quite promising ). I hope that progress in Haiti can continue to be made.

Cheers,

Marc
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Old 01-25-2010   #39
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Hey Marc and Rex !

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Hi Rex,

Foreign aid and development work can, indeed, lower the infant mortality rate; no questions there. In every case that I am aware of where this has happened, however (including Western Europe), the birth rate has only gradually dropped over a 60-70 period. I think we both agree on that and on the existence of a culture lag.

I recall the CDC and USAID performing studies in the early 80s in Sub-Sahara and the general target was infant mortality. At first I found that odd until I realized exactly what they were after.

Seems most African families were huge - 3 or even 4 generations under a single roof. The elders concluded that "more than half will die anyway" and the best approach was to make more (babies). The cultural spin there was simple, the children would eventually take care of their parents and so on.

When CDC finally brought cholera and malaria down to a "treatable illness" the locals began to see less of a need for 6 or 8 children. Even my local guard stopped at 3 kids (although he continued to steal my malaria prophylactics ).

That was nearly 15 years of research and money. Sadly, following civil wars and social upheaval the system died.


Quote:
Originally Posted by marct View Post
That's all fine and dandy, but what it tends to mean is that the increase in population brought about as a result of the reduction in infant mortality has several, macro-level demographic effects. First, it creates a population skewed to the lower age groups, so your population pyramid is quite wide. Second, infrastructural changes, say along the lines of the great sanitation engineering projects of the mid-19th century in Europe, also drop the mortality rate amongst all ages thereby significantly increasing the number of child bearing age people and their life expectancies.

This increase in general population leads to another cultural strain that shows up in many areas but, especially, in the economic divisions of labour. For example, male and female cultural expectations on types of employment, expectations on childrens employment, etc. This produces another round of cultural, hmmm, let's call it "negotiation" that actually tends to last longer than the family size one does.
Cheers,

Marc
Indeed a dilemma of major proportions. Children being sold, or worse, turned into soldiers. The school system couldn't handle the "influx" and many children ended up on the streets supporting their families.

Regards, Stan
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Old 01-25-2010   #40
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Hey Stan!

Yeah, it's really all about the systems . I remember years ago chatting with a fellow who had worked for CIDA in India on how to influence the birth rate. He was involved in the condom distribution project and had some great pictures of the villagers in the area he was working in using them as balloons in a parade!

At any rate, he got interested in the effects of entertainment on birth rates and tried some experiments. After a while, he realized that introducing individual TVs significantly reduced the birth rate - something he told me later that his wife had acerbicly commented on before .

Cheers,

Marc
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