Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[AmericanPride]

It is looking increasenly likely that the Ukraine will succeed unless Russia directly intervenes on the ground. If they do, Europe and the United States is almost certain to respond with economic sanction that will cripple the Russian economy. The current outline of sanctions outlined after the Malaysian airlines flight would be vastly expanded. One would also think aid in weapons and training would be on the table. If Russia doesn't directly intervene, what is to stop the Ukraine from turing their attention to Crimea next?

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

[Firn]

I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine.

I actually agree mostly, but I want to ask: What is a direction Russian intervention in your opinion? What isn't open-ended to this war, with the Crimea occupied by Russia and Russian men and Russian weapons reinforcing Russias shadow armies lead by Russian veterans with it's limited local support while the Russian army shells Ukrainian forces from Russia proper?

I have a pretty hard time to draw a line...

@davidpfbo: There might also be considerable differences from city to city, area to area with the larger cities giving a better idea then the smaller ones in which extremes are more likely to be observed. All in all the local support for the shadowy Russian invasion isn't certainly as big as the Kremlin would have hoped. Weapons are certainly not the bottleneck.

@Shchors: Maybe you could open a new thread about the strictly military aspect of the conflict. This thread contains already so many strands. Thanks anyway.

[BrentWilliams]

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

If the only variable in the equation for Putin is the military variable, this is an easy win. It is very doubtful that the population in Eastern Ukraine would resist Russia directly taking control of the area. All things being equal, I doubt they would vote for it and would rather stay part of Ukraine, but if Russia moved decisively into eastern Ukraine, I doubt you are going to have much resistance from the local population.

Given that, what is constraining Russia from acting? It isn't an armed threat from the west. Again, I don't see the west directly becoming involved in the conflict. At the most, they could start to provide weapons and training. However, until Russia crosses a boarder with a NATO country, I couldn't imagine anything else.


I would suggest the one factor constraining Russia is that it is virtually dependent on the economy of Europe while Russia could only inflict some economic pain on Europe. Yes Russian energy is important. But it is also important for Russia to sell that energy and Europe is rich enough to allow the market to adjust to get energy from other places. Russia's biggest export partner by far is the European Union. If Europe gains the will to enact real sanctions, the Russian economy is destroyed. Europe will feel some pain but it won't last as the markets adjust.

We like to have these preconceived notions. We aren't doing anything, etc. I would suggest, in this situation, the United States perfectly doing what it should. Allow Putin to hang himself with his BS. Russia has every reason to fear real political will coming from Europe.

[Firn]

According to Interpretermag live-blog and rather responsive map guys at wikipedia there has been a big Ukrainian offensive. A northern thrust, bypassing Horlivka furhter east, and southern thrust have almost cut off the Donetsk area from Luhansk one. It is of course important to remain sceptical, and wait for confirmations. If the offensive succedes and the gains get consolidated this would be a heavy blow for the Russian ambitions, especially around Donetsk.

The (Pro)Russian spokesmen are denying the extent of the recent gains, we will see. Lots of confusion, as so often and a considerable fog of war.

[OUTLAW 09]

According to Interpretermag live-blog and rather responsive map guys at wikipedia there has been a big Ukrainian offensive. A northern thrust, bypassing Horlivka furhter east, and southern thrust have almost cut off the Donetsk area from Luhansk one. It is of course important to remain sceptical, and wait for confirmations. If the offensive succedes and the gains get consolidated this would be a heavy blow for the Russian ambitions, especially around Donetsk.

The (Pro)Russian spokesmen are denying the extent of the recent gains, we will see. Lots of confusion, as so often and a considerable fog of war.

firn---appears to confirm your comments---the UA is now fighting night and day ops and are on a roll even with losses being absorbed they seem to sense the fighting is shifting.

Their attitude is summed up in the last two sentences from the reporting journalist.

Noticed it is their airborne, SF, and ex alpha units that are carrying the fight forward.

There was an article yesterday out of the Ukraine that a lot of the privately funded and supported independent fighting units are gaining a lot of new members as the Ukrainian government is indicating that after it is all over they must rebuild the police, security, and military and those that have fought will have priority chances in joining the new organizations.


From today kyivpost.com

The anti-terrorist Forces move towards the border with Russia. Shakhtersk, Torez, Snizhne. Journalist Petro Shuklinov wrote about it on his Facebook page.

«This is only one direction. All details of the forced march tonight after the operation has finished. Dozens of bodies of militants on the side of the roads. «We are going to our guys», — SMS. By the end of the day the territory of the militants will be cleared. If we will manage to hold to it — excellent. However, with such course of military operations there will be many losses.

We are moving to a phase where our Forces directly engage with terrorists. In addition to that they will need to fight on both side inside the corridor, but we have enough forces to widen the corridor every day. It will be very difficult, but there is no time to wait. We need victory. We need to save our guys on the border. We need to finish this war.»

[kaur]

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.

Borodai “The biggest problem I have now is that I’m running out of dough,” he says. “Out of the 150 I took with me, they’re basically all gone, because I gave 50 to Zakhar, a million hryvnia [$85,000] to Igor [Strelkov], plus all the other expenses.” It is not clear what currency the rest of the money discussed is in.
“The money’s in place, but we’ll actually have it in two weeks,” the man continues. “We’ll have it if this situation holds out for two weeks. You see, if nothing changes militarily, this situation isn’t going to hold out those two weeks.”
“If it doesn’t hold out, it doesn’t hold out,” the other man says. “Sasha, don’t burden me with this crap. We agreed about the 180 — take it. The rest we’re going to have to try and work out. If there’s not going to be a flow, then we’ll organize more through the same channel.”
The man alleged to be Chesnakov then conveys what he says is a request from Archmandrite Tikhon, a senior priest in the Russian Orthodox Church widely rumored to be Putin’s confessor, to help rein in Strelkov, who is lionized in pro-Kremlin quarters but widely seen as a loose cannon after he abandoned his stronghold of Slovyansk for Donetsk, the provincial capital, earlier this month.
The man says that Strelkov should give an interview to make clear that his “commander-in-chief” is Putin to dispel notions of a split between the rebels on the ground and their ostensible patrons in Moscow. “‘At the present time I’m understandably not carrying out his direct orders, because I’m in a different country, but I have the utmost respect for him and believe him to be the most brilliant leader of modern times, thanks to whom Russia rose from its knees, and we all look at him with hope,’” the man says, putting words in Strelkov’s mouth.
“‘But not in the sense of “come on already, how long can this go on,” but in the sense that we love him, believe in him, he is our ideal and whatever decisions he takes, we’ll carry out any decisions he takes. Because we think that he is the wise and experienced leader of the Russian world.’”

http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/uk...ebels-who-shot

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---two things;

1. the intercepts seem to indicate that they think they may not hold out longer than two weeks-- might be shorter after the UA broke through to the border yesterday near the MH17 crash site.

2. here is a Russian border guard ----this time posting the fact that he is crossing through the Ukrainian border crossing point.

They just cannot stop their internet postings. They really do need a short class on operational security.

http://sprotyv.info/en/news/2379-rus...trates-ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.



http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/uk...ebels-who-shot

kaur--not so sure they should be pushing Strelkov as their face of the revolt if the charges that he participated in war crimes in Bosnia and that could led to the International Courts charges. Just as now he tended to leave photos of myself that have now resurfaced.

[OUTLAW 09]

With a 50B USD suit lost by Putin over Yukos, the Ukrainians going to court over their lost Crimea oil and gas assets/properties another estimated 180B USD, another 3B USD in gas stored inside the Ukraine,the Ukrainians taking Gasprom to international court over alleged overcharging and charging for gas not delivered at approximately 6B USD, with the Ukrainians going to court over Ukrainian government assets in the Crimea taken over by Russia totaling over 145B USD. That does not include the additional Billions in military facilities taken over by Russia to include the Black Sea fleet home port.

Even if Putin succeeded in the eastern Ukraine--Russia will be paying dearly literally forever.

What many do not know is that if the Hague International Court rules against a government and they then lose on appeal the fines levied can be collected through any means---seizures of oil/gas shipments, impounding of merchant shipping and their cargoes--civilian aircraft belonging to Aeroflot---anything that can be seized is fair game.

[OUTLAW 09]

Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.



http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/uk...ebels-who-shot

kaur--rumors are these two--- Girkin and Bezler--- have fled the Donetsk--intercepts are indicating their own mercenaries are trying to find them.

Maybe they realized the Ukrainian Army was about to encircle the Donetsk which was completed yesterday effectively cutting Donetsk off from resupply, money, and fighters.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/2...-fled-donetsk/

[Shchors]

In follow-up to earlier posts regarding the situation in East Ukraine, yesterday the Ukrainian army isolated and partially captured a key railroad and road intersection at Debaltsevo. Debaltesvo is 40 clicks east of Donetsk and connects the main highway between Donetsk and Luhansk. It is also the main line of communications for the separatists between Donetsk and the Russian border.The Ukrainians were expected to turn west in order to surround a key advance redoubt at Horlivka (population 300,000). Instead, in a true example of the operational art, they left a small blocking force and sent a mechanized brigade some 20 kilometers south over open country to attack between the towns of Shakhtarsk and Torez, which sit astride the only other remaining east-west highway along the separatist line of communications with Russia. This took the Russians by surprize since all separatist defenses along this line were pointed south towards other Ukrainian forces that are pinned against the Russian border. Yesterday afternoon, the separatist field commander, RGU Lt.Col. Igor Girkin a/k/a Strelkov, reacted decisively. He pulled together a regimental sized counterattacking force (including his "Kalmius" spetzsnaz battalion) from further east at Krasnyi Luch and hurled it towards the Ukrainian penetration. According to Russian sit reps as of last night, the Ukrainians were stopped on the main highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. Both sides reported losses in tanks and personnel carriers. Apparently, most of the damage was caused by massed rocket artillery from the separatists side and tactical air from the Ukrainian side (the cross-country jaunt obviated the ability of the Ukrainians to bring along much self-propelled arty). From Russian accounts, the Ukrainians were not content to fight it out along the highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. They sent part of their column cross-country to the southeast in a bold attempt to seize Saur-Mohyla Mountain. Saur-Mohyla was the site of bloody fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht in 1942. A Mount Rushmore sized monument sits atop of the hill. The hill has been in separatist hands for the last month, from where the Russians direct accurate artillery fire against Ukrainian forces that are pinned along the Russian border. As of this afternoon, both sides claim that they control the mountain. Moreover, the Ukrainians are dug in along the outskirts of Shakhtarsk and at a key "T" intersection that leads from the highway south to Saur-Mohyla. If the Ukrainians can withstand counterattacks from both east and west (from Donetsk) in order to (1) interdict communications to Donetsk and if they can (2) capture and hold Saur-Mohyla Mountain, the separatists are cut off and in serious trouble. Given that more than half of the separatists are Russian mercenaries, soldiers of fortune (Serbs, Chechens, Latvians) or young Russian adrenalin junkies looking for their first taste of war, the separatist forces in Donetsk can collapse soon. However, as always in war, not so fast. There are reports of a mechanized force massing at Krasnyi Luch in the east. Video indicates that they all have state-of-the-art Russian vehicles, heavy weapons and a uniform appearance (with all insignia removed). These can only have appeared from inside of Russia. The bold Ukrainian maneuver of two days ago can collapse in the face of a powerful counterattack over the course of the next 2-3 days. Furthermore, while someone in the Ukrainian operational staff understands the importance of avoiding positional war, maintaining tempo and keeping the initiative (perhaps the Chief of the General Staff, Lt.Gen Victor Muzychko), one can only achieve this if you have fresh reserves. The Ukrainian army consists of only 2 tank brigades, 8 mechanized brigades and four airmobile/parachute brigades. At least three have to block other potential invasion routes from Russia and the rest have been fighting non-stop for two months. The Ukrainians may be at the end of their operational rope. Moreover, while greatly improved over the last two months, their combat groups are not experienced enough for the Wehrmacht like flexible operations that the general staff keeps ordering them to execute. Stay tuned. Fascinating and horrible at the same time.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur--rumors are these two--- Girkin and Bezler--- have fled the Donetsk--intercepts are indicating their own mercenaries are trying to find them.

Maybe they realized the Ukrainian Army was about to encircle the Donetsk which was completed yesterday effectively cutting Donetsk off from resupply, money, and fighters.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/2...-fled-donetsk/

kaur---Girkin is still in the Donetsk, but is being reported that Belzer is no longer there.

[davidbfpo]

I have been asked by regular poster to reorganise the threads on the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. This should keep it more accessible and organized.

My plan:

1. move all the Ukr threads into Europe arena
2. start all the new threads, 1st August next weekend?
3. Ukr international diplomacy
4. Ukr military
5. Ukr pol-econ
6. leave alone the Info Ops thread, but move to the Europe arena
7. close the existing threads

How does that sound? It would be good to get feedback from other users.

[JMA]

I would suggest that you merge the two Ukraine related threads, move them to Europe arena and allow general - blow by blow - discussion to continue as is.

Then let those who seek to start and contibute to a more specialised, measured and sedatory thread on a sub topic do so.

I have been asked by regular poster to reorganise the threads on the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. This should keep it more accessible and organized.

My plan:

1. move all the Ukr threads into Europe arena
2. start all the new threads, 1st August next weekend?
3. Ukr international diplomacy
4. Ukr military
5. Ukr pol-econ
6. leave alone the Info Ops thread, but move to the Europe arena
7. close the existing threads

How does that sound? It would be good to get feedback from other users.

[davidbfpo]

Below was the plan, but on reflection I have decided to:

1. Close this the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views)
2. Create two threads for current matters
3. First the fighting and military aspects
4. Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc)
5. The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena

I have been asked by regular poster to reorganise the threads on the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine. This should keep it more accessible and organized.

My plan:

1. move all the Ukr threads into Europe arena
2. start all the new threads, 1st August next weekend?
3. Ukr international diplomacy
4. Ukr military
5. Ukr pol-econ
6. leave alone the Info Ops thread, but move to the Europe arena
7. close the existing threads

How does that sound? It would be good to get feedback from other users.