The future of European stabilty?

[Firn]

Having very recently aquired Greek bonds for a price of 40 cent on the € running only another year I have to say that I do believe that Greece will pay back his debts reduced by a big "voluntary" haircut, but that it also has to get the economy running again and to clean up the economic mess resulting in huge regular debts.

Sadly Greece and a lot of Greek have used European funds too often in the worst possible manner, making them nothing more then very inefficient short-term boosts for income and growth. This approach is sadly also quite widespread in southern Italy, where money from the North and Europe just seems to flow through rotten buildings and invented land into the pockets of some "clever" ones.

However I do think that the fellow Italians still think that Italy will make it. Sadly it is pretty much Italian to react when it is almost too late, just look at the way Italy entered the Euro and that many think politics don't make an impact on their live. We had for so many years now a deeply corrupt, shadey sun king as PM, very capable to keep his power through all sorts of "manovre di palazzo", media power and money but utterly uncapable to work for the good of the nation and the common people. A PM able to sell failures with a false smile and big gestures, perhaps best seen in the earthquake of Aquila where he played the salesman with great acumen and but hardly bettered the live of the fellow countrymen hard hit.

So let us hope that Monti like Prodi before will do the right thing and won't get hindered to much by the "casta politica". I still remember my anger when Prodi got backstabbed by a small radical part of his fragile alliance, paving the way for Berlusconi once again. The gravitas of the situation should however (hopefully) keep such attempts in check.

I also don't believe that Italy will leave the Euro, the pride is in this case too big, perhaps trumping also economic reason.

[Surferbeetle]

Having very recently aquired Greek bonds for a price of 40 cent on the € running only another year I have to say that I do believe that Greece will pay back his debts reduced by a big "voluntary" haircut, but that it also has to get the economy running again and to clean up the economic mess resulting in huge regular debts.

No risk, no reward.

Sadly Greece and a lot of Greek have used European funds too often in the worst possible manner, making them nothing more then very inefficient short-term boosts for income and growth. This approach is sadly also quite widespread in southern Italy, where money from the North and Europe just seems to flow through rotten buildings and invented land into the pockets of some "clever" ones.

Regulatory frameworks and associated staffing seem to be a tough balance for any country to get right; criteria that most can agree too (popular by-in) enforced by impartial regulators with fairly recent industry experience, in sufficient quantities, with appropriate powers to reward and punish...hmm maybe it's just a utopian dream

However I do think that the fellow Italians still think that Italy will make it. Sadly it is pretty much Italian to react when it is almost too late, just look at the way Italy entered the Euro and that many think politics don't make an impact on their live. We had for so many years now a deeply corrupt, shadey sun king as PM, very capable to keep his power through all sorts of "manovre di palazzo", media power and money but utterly uncapable to work for the good of the nation and the common people. A PM able to sell failures with a false smile and big gestures, perhaps best seen in the earthquake of Aquila where he played the salesman with great acumen and but hardly bettered the live of the fellow countrymen hard hit.

There are many who are rooting for you guys.

The engineering & manufacturing business cluster which covers parts of northern Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Southern Germany has always been interesting to watch. Aprilia, Rotax, BMW, Brembo, Bimota....Massimo Tamburini's work in particular embodies some of that particular/regional engineering sensibility IMO.

The people/culture/languages/food/geography were great and I never locked my doors when I lived in that region....

So let us hope that Monti like Prodi before will do the right thing and won't get hindered to much by the "casta politica". I still remember my anger when Prodi got backstabbed by a small radical part of his fragile alliance, paving the way for Berlusconi once again. The gravitas of the situation should however (hopefully) keep such attempts in check.

Mr. Moniti's ascent to power is worrisome to me. Technically, he certainly appears to have the required skills for this crisis. Politically, he will have a challenging/diverse field (political class) to contend with (for how long and to what extent will the People of Liberty Party - among others - cooperate with him?) and forming political consensus rarely appears to be easy (technical grounds, deals, patronage, fear, jealously, love, etc). The biggest question in my mind, with this appointment, concerns adherence to a democratic process...

I have hope, we will see how it goes...

[Firn]

No risk, no reward.
There are many who are rooting for you guys.

The engineering & manufacturing business cluster which covers parts of northern Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Southern Germany has always been interesting to watch. Aprilia, Rotax, BMW, Brembo, Bimota....Massimo Tamburini's work in particular embodies some of that particular/regional engineering sensibility IMO.

The people/culture/languages/food/geography were great and I never locked my doors when I lived in that region....

Thanks, hopefully the trust and the economy will be restored.

Northern Italy is really part of a powerful, central European cluster in terms of enterprises. As a person living and working as part of it, speaking Italian, German and some French you really appreciate the importances of the links crossing many borders. The north has attracted (at least) in the last fifty years a lot of internal immigration, which however in recent times has been dwarfed by the external one. From an economic point of view the latter has been incredibly important one, taking mostly jobs nobody else wanted to do. [From a military perspective, this is (sadly) similar. Due to the conditions and the pay Northern Italians are hard to find among the lower ranks of volunteer armed forces]

While I know the political discourse and reason behind decisions like the "patti territoriali", it has, like the poor support for many "mestieri", it has done little to attract the precious young labour force into the right geographical and business areas. Anyway the Italian strenght is also in it's creative and hard-working "Mittelstand", pretty similar to other regions in the big cluster.

Mr. Moniti's ascent to power is worrisome to me. Technically, he certainly appears to have the required skills for this crisis. Politically, he will have a challenging/diverse field (political class) to contend with (for how long and to what extent will the People of Liberty Party - among others - cooperate with him?) and forming political consensus rarely appears to be easy (technical grounds, deals, patronage, fear, jealously, love, etc). The biggest question in my mind, with this appointment, concerns adherence to a democratic process...

I have hope, we will see how it goes...

Napolitano used his constitutional power IMHO wisely .You are of course right that he lacks the direct vote of the people, not such much as a vote of confidence but in form of a powerful party under his control. Berlusconi's government was surprisingly long-lived due to him holding many threads of power firmly in his hand, among them the biggest political party, "his" party, in which hardly anybody was ready to criticize him. Your biggest question, adherence to a democratic process might surprise the ordinary Italian, as it is pretty much a given that until we get election barter, trading, patronage, deals and so forth will make the palazzo an even busier place then usual.

It is of course an important question also for the Italian investor. Should he invest into Italian gov. bonds? Traditionally a lot of Italian money is owed to Italians, but it is of course not always wise to put alot of eggs in one basket.