Russia, politics and power: internal & external(new title)

[Tankguy]

I am familiar with the Russian fear of invasion by the West, but I cannot see how a missle defense system is viewed as an offensive threat by the Russians. From Putin's comments, it would seem that the perceived threat stems from the missle defenses neutralizing the Russian nuclear arsenal. That would be a defensive move would it not? I can appreciate that it is on the Russian door step, but can't Russia appreciate the fact that we are bit busy at minute to be planning an invasion of the Motherland?

[Rob Thornton]

Tankguy - don't constrain yourself to just thinking about paranoia or fear, there is also opportunity to gain power, or to deny it to others. There is money to be made, and there is political power to be wielded - even if you don't know what's in the tree - you might shake it a little to see what comes loose - if you don't like it, just leave it laying on the ground, or shake it some more.

My point is that these guys are great at figuring out ways to get what they want, and from a cost benefit sort of perspective - raising hell about Missile Defense - something we really want is bound to produce something they would not have gotten by being silent - combine that with their oil wealth and power (in terms of the greater European sense), and you get some pretty good political credibility - we can't just ignore. They don't have much to lose by raining hell, but they do stand to gain.

Best, Rob

[tequila]

Neutralizing the Russian nuclear deterrent could be seen as the first step to allowing offensive moves against Russia, since the U.S. will have removed Russia's strongest shield against conventional invasion. Combined with extending NATO to Russia's borders, it is easy to see how that Russia would feel threatened by this on a grand strategic level.

We would never countenance Mexico joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, for instance, especially if China had the beginnings of a way to neutralize our nuclear deterrent.

[wm]

I am familiar with the Russian fear of invasion by the West, but I cannot see how a missle defense system is viewed as an offensive threat by the Russians. From Putin's comments, it would seem that the perceived threat stems from the missle defenses neutralizing the Russian nuclear arsenal. That would be a defensive move would it not? I can appreciate that it is on the Russian door step, but can't Russia appreciate the fact that we are bit busy at minute to be planning an invasion of the Motherland?

Missile defense defends the Western from retaliation by a Russian missile attack, should the West elect to start offensive (nuclear or conventional) operations against the Russians. Back in the good old days of Cold War deterrrence via mutually assured destruction (MAD), the Anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty was a way to prevent the same kind of protection of one's own forces (or territory, since the Sovs were putting their ABMs around Moscow IIRC), which would have made MAD a non-starter. Historically, Russia has tried to protect Mother Russia by putting a belt of client buffer states between its enemies and its heartland. This is arguably the same thing that the US is now trying to do with its forward deployed missile defense system, or at least this may be a russian perception off what is going on. Having client states also has other benefits with regard to economic exploitation; they can serve as both a captive market for one's exports and a potentially cheaper source of raw materials (which also includes labor).

And as Rob pointed out, this posturing may be little more than a ruse to try to extract concessions in other areas that are important to the Russian leadership. It could be as simple as Putin's needing to look tough to the folks at home so they think he is really showing a strong hand leading the country--sort of a Potemkin village to hide other woes.