Syria under Bashir Assad (closed end 2014)

[AdamG]

For complex reasons the Syrian civil war has not led - yet - to a war beyond its frontiers, despite multiple, competing regional and external actors. Whether restraint has prevailed is a moot point, as some clearly prefer Syrians to die for their interests.

Has it occured to you that the "Civil War" in Syria might actually be the war of AQ & Happy Funtime Friends Club spilling into Syria, like from A-stan, Libya, ad nauseum?

[AdamG]

I'll just leave this here, with some reading music -
http://youtu.be/dxkUK3SQlWI

It is not difficult to notice that the rebellion in Syria began to grow two years ago, almost at the same time as the signing of a memorandum in Bushehr on June 25, 2011 regarding the construction of a new Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline… It is to stretch 1500 km from Asaluyeh on the largest gas field in the world, North Dome/South Pars (shared between Qatar and Iran) to Damascus. The length of pipeline on the territory of Iran will be 225 km, in Iraq 500 km, and in Syria 500-700 km. Later it may be extended along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea to Greece. The possibility of supplying liquefied gas to Europe via Syria’s Mediterranean ports is also under consideration. Investments in this project equal 10 billion dollars. (1)

This pipeline, dubbed the «Islamic pipeline», was supposed to start operation in the period from 2014 to 2016. Its projected capacity is 110 million cubic meters of gas per day (40 billion cubic meters a year). Iraq, Syria and Lebanon have already declared their need for Iranian gas (25-30 million cubic meters per day for Iraq, 20-25 million cubic meters for Syria, and 5-7 million cubic meters until 2020 for Lebanon). Some of the gas will be supplied via the Arab gas transportation system to Jordan. Experts believe that this project could be an alternative to the Nabucco gas pipeline being promoted by the European Union (with a planned capacity of 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year), which doesn’t have sufficient reserves. It was planned to run the Nabucco pipeline from Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan through the territory of Turkey. At first Iran was also considered as a resource base, but later it was excluded from the project. After the signing of the memorandum on the Islamic Pipeline, the head of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), Javad Oji, stated that South Pars, with recoverable reserves of 16 trillion cubic meters of gas, is a «reliable source of gas, which is a prerequisite for the building of a pipeline which Nabucco does not have».It is easy to observe that about 20 billion cubic meters per year will remain from this pipeline for Europe, which would be able to compete with Nabucco’s 30 billion, but not the 63 billion from the South Stream.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-geo...peline/5337452

[Dayuhan]

Has it occured to you that the "Civil War" in Syria might actually be the war of AQ & Happy Funtime Friends Club spilling into Syria, like from A-stan, Libya, ad nauseum?

'm sure they've moved in, being the opportunists that they are but I see no credible evidence suggesting that they initiated the fighting.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-geo...peline/5337452

Global Research is not exactly a credible source, and the pipeline-as-casus-belli theory doesn't stand up to examination.

[Bill Moore]

This conflict may have originated from indigenous sources, but regardless its character rapidly evolved. It has quickly become a proxy war for a number of nations and part of the larger civil war between Shi'a and Sunni throughout the Muslim world.

I think the border nations are conducting a skillful balancing act to contain the effects from spreading to elements of their population, but the ability to maintain that balance could become more challenging if we launch missiles into Syria.

Both parties know this, which is why attacks have been conducted in Lebanon which I assume were deterrent warning shots directed at Hezbollah by the Sunni resistance. This conflict doesn't parallel the Spanish Civil War, but I agree there are currently many similarities. What differs is the ethnic versus ideological character of the motivation (yet there does seem to be some small elements of the resistance who have a political ideology instead of fighting for their tribes supremacy). Additionally, some of the external actors in the fighting (AQ and Hezbollah) have global networks and greater than Syria ambitions.

This may stay contained to Syria, but it will be a miracle if it does.

[ganulv]

Both parties know this, which is why attacks have been conducted in Lebanon which I assume were deterrent warning shots directed at Hezbollah by the Sunni resistance. This conflict doesn't parallel the Spanish Civil War, but I agree there are currently many similarities. What differs is the ethnic versus ideological character of the motivation (yet there does seem to be some small elements of the resistance who have a political ideology instead of fighting for their tribes supremacy). Additionally, some of the external actors in the fighting (AQ and Hezbollah) have global networks and greater than Syria ambitions.

This may stay contained to Syria, but it will be a miracle if it does.

It’s worth remembering that Syria occupied Lebanon for almost three decades. And might still be doing so today if not for the ham-handed assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005.

[davidbfpo]

Has it occured to you that the "Civil War" in Syria might actually be the war of AQ & Happy Funtime Friends Club spilling into Syria, like from A-stan, Libya, ad nauseum?

Yes, it is almost like the Soviet advisers with the Spanish Republicans -v- the far larger Italian military (manpower strong) and German military (with an emphasis on technology) assistance to the Spanish Nationalists.

AQ et al IIRC had little presence, let alone overt support in Syria when the protests began and it took time, with copious amounts of Gulf money, for them to get involved. Civil wars have a history of becoming bloodier and terrible the longer they last - invariably for the non-combatants, not the fighters.

I still consider this is a civil war, fought largely by Syrians.

[davidbfpo]

An interesting European viewpoint, a policy briefing by the ECFR, a body I've never heard of:http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/comment...ening_in_syria