Ken:
Geography is a tough thing and the configuration of the world can't be changed. We very well may get over the embarrassment, it is hard to embarrass somebody with no shame, but that hole in the barrier of islands won't be so easy to overcome. Politics, internal, external, our or theirs, the map won't look so good for the USN hence the Japanese and everybody else.
As an additional surprise for you, I think you are wrong also when you say this about Red China "they're likely to be far more sensible and pragmatic than the US where the worldwide or even long term domestic consequences will not outrank immediately beneficial partisan political ploys.", at least the sensible part. Westerners have been saying things like that for as long as I can remember, mostly in frustration that free nations can be so kooky sometimes. Totalitarian police states have proven to be mostly quite poor at figuring the best long term course of action. Maybe the ChiComs will be different, I would guess not.
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