did I. Is anything in the article factually plausible ?from Stan
Sorry, but I'm having a hard time with this article
And, I also caught the factual error re: checkpoint.
did I. Is anything in the article factually plausible ?from Stan
Sorry, but I'm having a hard time with this article
And, I also caught the factual error re: checkpoint.
jmm99
About terrorists and insurgents in Southern Caucasus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia..._Equip_ProgramThis program implemented President Bush's decision to respond to the Government of Georgia's request for assistance to enhance its counter-terrorism capabilities and addressed the situation in the Pankisi Gorge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pankisi_GorgeIt had allegedly often been used as a base for transit, training and shipments of arms and financing by Chechen rebels and Islamic militants, many of whom followed Ruslan Gelayev.
Russia has attempted to attack the Chechen militants in the gorge. Georgia has also accused Russia of carrying out bombing raids in the gorge region in which at least one Georgian civilian was believed to have perished.
http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/d...s/caucasus/P37
Why young people are going to mountains and resisting goverment in North Caucasus is so long story. Political stalemates (with violent solutions), bad governance, blood feud, tribalism, deprivation etc are the causes of mess. Just take a look at this site.
http://www.jamestown.org/chechnya_weekly/
It just seems that free space for terrorists/insurgents has become bigger. In the North Caucasus there is same number of Russian troops but theatre has become 4000 sq km bigger.
This car bombing reminded me this Chechen act from 2002 in Grozny.
http://video.kavkazcenter.com/clips/grozny_buil.wmv
... and Znamenskoye.
http://video.kavkazcenter.com/battle...namenskoye.wmv
Goble writes about this boming here
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...osions-in.html
Last edited by kaur; 10-07-2008 at 07:02 AM.
and Chechens in the news today.
Hey K, your references to Pankisi Gorge were timely.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1007/p04s01-woeu.htmlfrom CSM
Georgia's Chechens relive own Russian war
Russia's military presence in Georgia has unnerved refugees who fled here from Chechnya in the 1990s.
By Paul Rimple | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the October 7, 2008 edition
.....
Pankisi Gorge, Georgia - When Russian tanks rolled toward Tbilisi, Georgia, in August, shops closed and streets emptied as residents stayed indoors, glued to their televisions and radios. A hundred miles northeast, in the mountainous enclave of Pankisi Gorge, Chechen refugees also watched Russian troops advancing on TV, but with less stupefaction and more cynicism.
.....
Four to five thousand refugees spilled over the mountain border into Pankisi Gorge and found sanctuary with fellow Muslim Kisti, ethnic Chechens who had arrived in the Georgian region some 150 years earlier.
Most refugees were women and children, though many guerrillas also used the area as a haven from which to launch operations into Russia. By 2003, however, with the help of US military training, Georgia cleared the area of these paramilitary fighters. ....
So, from the viewpoint of this report, the Pankisi Gorge problem was solved in 2003.
Goble's concluding comment (in the last url cited by you) is insightful (IMO):
In short, there is a lot of political spin going on - and not that much factual analysis - nothing new about that.Areshev’s words clearly reflect the view of many in the Russian security agencies who oppose a pullback. And their beliefs, especially if carefully and cleverly articulated by Russian officials, almost certainly would find understanding among many in the West who are increasingly willing to accept Moscow’s version of the Russian-Georgian war in which Tbilisi is to blame even though it did not invade another country and Moscow is innocent even though it did.
I'm not going to take the whole article apart, but will comment on a few paras that based on anecdotal evidence are, pathetically off, way off base.
The HQ was in the capital, not anywhere remotely near the buffer zone, or any check point. My previous point about Engineers performing EOD - Two very different skill fields (other than perhaps the ability to use explosives, which is also in question).they stopped a car with Georgian license plates in which the occupants were armed. The car was taken to a Russian checkpoint, where it promptly exploded. Nine Russian soldiers, including a Russian general in the nearby headquarters, were killed, and seven others were wounded.
Not sure I follow the author here. We have better criminals that barely use 250 grams of HE and do far more damage. The sad fact herein is: Russian soldiers had been stealing vehicles and property, taking said directly to the General for (ahem) inspection (and redistribution of possessed assets), and they established a pattern that even a 1st grader could follow.A car bomb in the Caucasus?
This is a weapon, and a method of terrorism, with a very familiar signature. It points to the introduction of a rather sinister aspect to the Russia-Georgia conflict – the entrance of radical Islamic elements on the field of battle, and clearly on the side of the Georgians.
This part I agree with. They got caught with their pants down thinking the Georgians gave up. Maybe they should consider the fact that nearly 30 percent of their targets were not hit, and, less than half of what was dropped failed to go high order. WWII munitions on a modern battlefield - maybe they were getting rid of their stockpilesYet, far from being all-controlling, the Russkies are hardly in the drivers' seat on the far fringes of their supposedly resurgent empire...
I think the total is now collectively 25 billionHow many millions are we sending to Tbilisi? We're training their coast guard on American ships anchored in the Black Sea. Are we also training their intelligence service in the fine art of car bombing – or do they farm that out to the real experts?
Pure conjecture or, Bravo Sierra.
Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).
Regards, Stan
If you want to blend in, take the bus
It was interesting reading the article just discussed, and others in the popular press and spin sites, after reading through (and being a bit involved in) the threads here on Georgia.
Let us say that I was able to be much more fact-critical than I would have been without the knowledge gained from SWC. That applies to many other areas as well.
and, as to this:
agreed, agreed & agreed - oh well, less than a month left. Deo Gratias.Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).
A quick email sitrep from an (ahem) observer in the buffer zone:
Overall, life in Georgia is slowly returning to normalcy with locals going about their daily routines. Interesting to note are those locals that typically cross the buffer zones and Russian checkpoints without giving it another thought. It appears that it will only be a matter of time before everything is back to normal. There are even signs of the previous infrastructure returning to normal at schools, stores and government institutions.
NGO HALO Trust is spooling up for their first month working on the UXO problems. Their initial task will be to control areas and declare those either free of UXO, or in need of additional clearance operations. HALO thinks 6 to 9 months.
Departing Russians
05 OCT planned departures actually began on the morning of the 8th !
The initial plan called for Russian units to depart in unison beginning at 0800. However, some fruity MG Kulakhmetovi ordered that each checkpoint would depart only when at least 3 EUMM members were present. If that wasn’t already confusing for the Russian troops, the good general decided that each checkpoint could depart as individuals. This only led to a further delay with some of the checkpoints deserted and “Engineering” equipment left behind. (Trust me when I say their equipment is stone age Bravo Sierra).
The Georgian locals are convinced this was intentional with Russians returning throughout the night to recover their equipment. On a side note, don’t the Russians give their peacekeepers port-a-poties when deployed? I mean seriously, they like took dumps everywhere. The Russian troops are still hanging around Akhalgori as if it was strategic (it is after all real friggin close to Tbilisi).
Say, does that Colonel you worked with in Africa still do Ace hardware? Holy Moses, he could make a killing here.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Finland Sees a Familiar Pattern in Photos From the Georgia Conflict
MOSCOW — One of the stranger questions to emerge after the August conflict between Russia and Georgia: Did Russians go to war in camouflage filched from Finland?http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/wo...se&oref=sloginToday, the two countries share a quiet 800-mile border. Asked whether Finnish authorities were concerned about distinguishing their troops from Russians on the battlefield, Captain Karhuvaara noted that the uniforms under scrutiny belong to troops in the Russian Ministry of the Interior, which oversees police forces inside Russia. “If Russian Ministry of the Interior troops would invade Finland,” he said, “we would have big trouble.”
The Georgia conflict of August 2008: Exponent of Russia's assertive security policy,
Marcel de Haas
Carré Januari 2009
http://www.clingendael.nl/publicatio...20conflict.pdfHowever, if the Kremlin maintains its military
ambitions and is capable of realizing them, then the West,
confronted with a resurgent Russia, might have to change
its defence plans into those in which collective defence has
once again a central focus.
ARAG, 6 Mar 09: Provocation, Deception, Entrapment: The Russo-Georgian Five Day War
Complete 21-page paper at the link.Key Points
• Russian annexation of Abakhazia and South Ossetia has increased instability throughout the region.
• Georgians will not accept annexation of their territory
• Within weeks snow will melt increasing the danger of war
• Tbilisi must be made aware of the need for restraint
• Cross-border ethnic groups possessing dual nationality are vulnerable to manipulation
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