Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[carl]

Carl and Firn,

The point is that with or without Russian intervention, Ukraine would still be facing this same economic dilemma. And the problem isn't is "West better than East?" Because that's a false dichtonomy. Ukraine's integration into the Washington Concensus will unleash a very painful program on the Ukrainian people that will benefit a few small class of investors and financiers. Whatever his motivations and faults, Yanukovych rejected this program. His government was in an impossible situation given the immense pressure from both Washington and Moscow. A considerable of the portion of the population is in favor of this course of action - another considerable portion is in favor of achieving the status of a Russian protectate. The narrative of a spontaneous freedom-thirsty pro-West Ukrainian revolution is a myth.

Yanukovych who stole how many millions, billions, was trying to spare the Ukrainian people the pain of closer integration with the West despite the wishes of rather a lot of Ukrainians. Yanukovych the humanitarian philanthropist. You learn something new every day.

[AmericanPride]

Yanukovych who stole how many millions, billions, was trying to spare the Ukrainian people the pain of closer integration with the West despite the wishes of rather a lot of Ukrainians. Yanukovych the humanitarian philanthropist. You learn something new every day.

You have a superficial reading of the situation and at no point did I say Yanukovych was a "humanitarian philanthropist". Quote me. At best, he was corrupt. At worst, a murderer. But that wouldn't make him any different from most of heads of state nor does it have any bearing on the fact of his democratic legitimacy, certified by an election, or the expression of the popular will of the Ukrainian population. Nor does it change the fact that sometime this month the new government in Kiev will approve the same IMF-imposed austerity measures that have failed in Greece, Portugal, and elsewhere and that Yanukovych, whatever his motivations, rejected.

There is sufficient economic data that demonstrates the failure of austerity as a growth policy. Austerity is not about growth. Austerity is about ensuring the gains of a small class of investors and financiers in a dying economy, whatever the costs to the general population. Austerity will not save Ukaine. Austerity has not saved any country. But that's not the goal of austerity. The same pain that has gripped Russia, Greece, Chile, and even Detroit will come to Ukraine. Capitalism is not about democracy. It's about profit. And austerity brings that distinction to the forefront.

[AmericanPride]

This article describes the Latvian experience with austerity. This is the "democratic" future of Ukraine if Kiev elects the IMF program:

Latvia’s solid economic growth since its economy plunged by 25 per cent in 2008-10 is billed as a success. Its unemployment during the crisis soared above 20 per cent as the shutdown of foreign capital inflows (mainly Swedish mortgage loans to inflate its real estate bubble) left Latvia with deep current-account deficits.

That said, Latvians strongly protested austerity. On January 13, 2009, in the dead of winter, 10,000 in Riga protested against austerity and corruption. Teachers, nurses and farmers held demonstrations in the months following. The national police were called to suppress protests over the closure of a hospital in Bauska; fearing local police might not do what was “required.”

Demographers estimate that 200,000 have departed the past decade – roughly 10 per cent of the population – at an accelerating rate that reflects the austerity being inflicted. Latvian demographers estimate that at least 200,000 have left Latvia the past decade, Moreover, birth rates declined from already low numbers.

Right Sector and Fatherland will get theirs. So will Washington and Brussels. Moscow's presence in Crimea will also mean they get theirs as well. But those protestors in Kiev who risked their lives for a better vision of Ukraine will be left bankrupt and bitter. Resolving the Crimea situation will not solve Ukraine's fundamental economic problem.

[Firn]

I actually I agree with the bit about austerity and it would be economic stupidity to demand certain actions to be implemented in the short term. I have written against the bane of austerity during a depression enough in the thread about the European economy.

However it is absolutely wrong to see the integration into the broader European economy just through the prism of the Washington consensus. It is in fact even completely wrong to describe the WC in such a one-sided way. It is important to keep the simple facts in mind. An it is a fact that the reforms in the spirit of the WC did also great good and were one reason why we have graphs like that.





I think you should try to step back and lookd at the big picture and avoid to see it all the economy in the austerity light. It is very important to avoid a false balance. The world is not black and white but also not a shade of gray right in the middle...

[Firn]

On a different note, I noted for the first time that indeed a lot of the Eastern and Northern FM are quite active twitter users. The Polish one:

Radosław Sikorski ‏@sikorskiradek

In Narva, Estonia, for V4+Baltic+Nordic FMs meeting, a town with 97% Russians. Can fraternal assistance from Spetsnatz be avoided here now?

[AdamG]

On a different note, I noted for the first time that indeed a lot of the Eastern and Northern FM are quite active twitter users. The Polish one:

I would suggest that any staff planning officers of small-to-mid sized countries within range of Russian Air Force An-124s start Red Teaming how Putin and his Kremlin crew could Georgia/Crimea them within five days (which looks like the New Red Army standard), along with whatever the triggers would be and maskirovka indicators Russian forces would hide behind. That'd be a prudent exercise.

For that poor little O3/O4 in the G3 Section out there suddenly tasked with something like this, have a leg-up;

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...62578216,d.dmQ

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...1a02p_0001.htm

http://books.google.com/books?id=lJ9Gfxo_bxMC&pg

Powodzenia.

Anybody care to guess when the first of those fraternal liberators are killed by Tatar bombs or bullets and what the fraternal liberators will then do?

Flanking actions, baby, flanking actions.
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...127#post153127

BTW the OCSE* storms an Ukrainian shop:

Nice haircuts.

[Firn]

@jmm99: A member of maternal grandfathers family actually got in trouble because as teen he was listening to Radio Moskva in the 30s. I no longer know why (a price?) he wrote a cost-free letter back, but that one must have earned him a place on some list, as he could gather through an informal channel. Very low down of course, but it did hamper his career.

@AdamG: The article about the Soviet Deception makes for interesting reading, I will have to take my time on that one.

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Quite early in this thread I questioned the wisdom of Putins invasion into the Crimea. Vladimir Putin is losing the battle for Ukraine by Alex Massie puts some of my ideas in far better words:

It is always tempting, in the field of foreign affairs, to suppose we are led by dupes and fools while our opponents enjoy – or endure – leaders of boundless cunning. We are over-matched; they are playing three-dimensional chess. We are weak, they are strong. We are easily distracted, they are single-minded. We compromise, they are implacable. It is easy to over-estimate the opposition while under-estimating our own capabilities.

This attitude and it's consequences were already picked up by Clausewitz as one of the reasons why wars often moved so slowly and carefully. The difficulties and the frictions are all too plain on your side while those of your opponent are hidden. But I disgress:

Moscow, assisted by the blundering Yanukovych, has over-reached itself and in so doing is losing the prize it coveted in the first place. No government in Kiev can submit to Moscow now. Putin has pushed his near abroad further abroad. Russia is forcing Ukraine to make a choice it might prefer not to make. Should Kiev look east or west? By invading the Crimea and threatening eastern Ukraine Putin makes that choice for Kiev. It cannot return to Moscow centre. It must instead, albeit with some trepidation, look west.

That is, Putin is losing hearts and souls. Ukraine may remain a divided country but Russia is helping legitimise the new Ukrainian government. Helping, too, Ukrainians make up their minds. If they were conflicted a few weeks ago they are a little less conflicted now.

Almost nothing is certain, but there is no doubt that Putin has so far undermined the support for Russia of 40+ million Ukrainians to secure so far a bit over a million Russian speakers and the Crimea. It will be highly interesting to see how it plays out.

[Firn]

Some of the stuff coming out of the occupied Ukraine and Russia is amazing, but it is hard to beat the 'icebreaker of peace' in Sochi 2014.

'Took a wrong turn', '.. and sunk in the Sevastapol harbour' are just a couple of the sarcastic comments.

I found the twitter side refreshing, usually I'm more the article and reports type of guy.