I respect the hell out of Bill Moore, and we see many things in very similar ways, but this quote above highlights a fundamental difference in perspective. Our policies of the past several years are more in line with how Bill sees this as stated above, I, on the other hand do not believe that "extremists" cause political revolution, rather that political revolution is caused by certain conditions of governance coupled with the denial of adequate legal means for the aggrieved population to express and address their concerns legally.North Africa is going through another political revolution, and that will take time to sort out. It won't be settled until the extremists are purged.
There will always be those who take extreme positions far outside the mainstream of the societies they live within, and even when effective legal means exist, these small minorities will at times act out in extreme ways. But that is not what we are dealing with in Africa and the greater Middle East.
We would be far better served by a policy that focuses on helping to solve governance issues rather than to defeat extremism. And by help solve, I mean as much more of a mediator than an arbitrator, and being willing to step back entirely when we have done what we can within the realm of what is perceived as appropriate by those affected and simply let them sort it out. Governments of allies like Saudi Arabia or Turkey might fall to internal illegal politics, as occurred in Egypt. But Insurgency does not destroy a nation, it simply puts it under new management. We should not manipulate legal changes of government to suit what we think is best for us, nor should we manipulate illegal changes of government. We are better served assuming a bit of risk in that change, and being more open to working with new leadership as it emerges.
There are a lot of systems out there that are completely out of balance and in dire need of change. Our very efforts to protect the status quo of those systems is what is empowering extremists to emerge as the leaders of change. We have surrendered the high ground to the lowlifes. That wasn't very smart. How can we be de oppresso liber when we are more often dedicated to the preservation of the oppressor? That bothers me.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
Joel--to hold higher than a Secret then in fact one must be a US citizen and the question of dual citizenship becomes interesting as the US says if one takes an oath of allegiance to another military power then no US service-or if service then none with a clearance is allowed--that has not changed.Originally Posted by jcustis
Robert---you always bring up interesting comments---what bothers me is the simple fact that while we are running around trying to defend and or change population environments we fail to fully understand just why say a young Turkish German dual citizen would suddenly at say the age 19-21 suddenly discover "Islam" and head to Syria and or Iraq?
What is the radicalization process/how and what are the drivers and what about dealing with those that have returned and who no longer wants to fight?
I have often said here the IS runs one of the finest info war campaigns against the West as does Russia on their side of the Ukraine events.
But where is the US---all we think about is tactical field efforts but never the long term hearts and minds via info war.
Maybe in fact Sun Tsu had it right---or is info warfare "something we simply are not up to"---and I do not mean the PR defense contractor we paid for in Iraq and that did nothing but PR releases.
For 25% of all the costs currently in Iraq and Syria that the military is racking up one could establish a world class information war campaign that in fact would dent the IS in far more ways than simply via the tactical method simply addressing the Muslim populations in Muslim terms on why the IS is not Muslim and is in fact a fascist organization using religion as the argument.
Easy to do if one really understands Islam.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-22-2014 at 02:43 PM.
I personally believe that "radicalization" and "foreign fighters" are two of the most overblown and misunderstood aspects of the current political violence going on across the greater middle east.
People join fighting organizations, legal or non-legal, for all manner of reasons. And people go off to get involved in the fights of others , legal or non-legal, for all manner of reasons as well.
This does not cause these conflicts. We need to worry less about naturally occurring side effects of the tremendous political friction in the world. The US, as an outsider to all this, should focus on how we can help reduce the friction. Instead we fan the flames and attack the smoke.
This also leads us to see what are fundamentally issues of internal governance as some sort of warfare to employ our military power against. The military can help create time and space for civil leaders to get the stuff all in one sack, and the military can help civil security forces mitigate the high end of violence - but there is no enemy that we can defeat and make this all go away. History simply does not support that concept, though historically this is how governments almost always respond.
So, we are in good company, but we will almost certainly achieve the same bad results.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
A different theme from recent posts. Spioenkop blog has produced a list of captured and still in use Daesh (ISIS) equipment:Link:http://spioenkop.blogspot.co.uk/2014...-captured.htmlThis list only includes captured vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment captured and destroyed by the Islamic State may be higher than recorded here. Some civilian vehicles such as Toyota Hilux pickup trucks are not included in this list. A great deal of effort has been put into avoiding double listings.
davidbfpo
Bob,
I don't think there is as much daylight between us as you think.
Extremist is a loaded term, but until we develop a more nuanced lexicon it will have to do. I agree the people have a right to revolt to remove oppressive governments, and as anyone who has deployed into a combat zone or has studied history knows, these revolts can be quite ugly. Despite our government's desire for adversaries to fight cleanly, that will never happen. Terror is part and parcel of war, and arguing that the use of the atom bomb on Japan, or firebombing both Japan and Germany wasn't a form of terror is living in a state of denial.Our policies of the past several years are more in line with how Bill sees this as stated above, I, on the other hand do not believe that "extremists" cause political revolution, rather that political revolution is caused by certain conditions of governance coupled with the denial of adequate legal means for the aggrieved population to express and address their concerns legally.
On the other hand, those I'm calling extremists (the Islamists) won't stop applying terror after the government falls, they'll act more like the Khmer Rouge and kill everyone who doesn't conform to their views. That is not a representative government that represents the masses (and I'm not necessarily talking democracy), it is just another oppressive government that will likely be worse than the one tossed out. We have to recognize the reality, and not confuse these movements as great patriots attempting to toss an oppressive government out to free the people. As you have stated, they exploit the existing bad governance to pursue their ends.
Next point, we can't wish away that some of these groups have a stated ambition of attacking the West. That obviously means something, and according to the Harvard study you sent, that fell under the red chip priorities. Of course this was written prior to 9/11, so they may recognize that now as a blue chip priority. There are obviously different levels of threats within the broad concept of terrorism, so we have to make some assumptions of what ones are critical and which ones are minor.
Then there is the concept of thinking over time and getting to the left of the problem if it is possible. The study lists the catastrophic collapse of global systems, which is unlikely to collapse due to one event we need to pre-empt, instead it will collapse over time due to slow rot due to transnational crime, terrorism, and other threats to the world order that more significant than we give them credit for. This has only recently been recognized as a significant threat to global and U.S. security, and it requires more action than we're giving it now. It certainly doesn't require large scale stability operations, but it is a bigger problem than law enforcement. How we assess risk and critical interests is probably out dated, and still based on a Cold War model existential threat. That still exists, and the threat is still Russia, but there are certainly other threats that could be an existential threat to our way of life.
I don't believe in a natural order, but some orders are more durable than others. Still at the end of the day, somebody/somebodies make the rules that we live by locally, regionally, and globally. If those rules are important to us, then we need to enforce them. Certainly the existing rules were designed by the West to benefit the West, and will have to be modified.
Not necessarily arguing with your point, just adding there are real threats to our interests that we need to address. Accurately identifying what those threats are with cool headed analysis is required. I do agree we react emotionally now, because emotional arguments are leveraged by politicians in the media to garner political power. We may be coming to a point where we need to toss out our dysfunctional politicians so our nation can move forward into the 21st Century. Frustration levels are high, and while the democratic process works to some extent, it won't work as well as it can unless real problem solvers seek and obtain office, and minimize the power of the old party geezers currently in place. Party interests has come to a point that it trumps national interests, so before we seek to fix the world we need to fix ourselves.
Robert---would normally agree with you but alone in Europe mainly France/Germany and the UK there have been over 2000 "fighters" depart for the ME and out of the 400 estimated here out of Germany 170 have returned.
If you were in the courtroom in the case of one recent returnee the German court had no earthly idea what to even ask him and or the common terms used by the jihadi "scene". I was stunned by the total lack of understanding on the problem.
Radicalization is a correct term---this individual as did the others left as you indicated for a multiple number of reasons many having to do with the lack of them feeling a part of the German society ie the failure of their integration into the society--which is unusual as they are the first generation completely growing up inside the German society.
The IS info war provides them a world vision where they are in fact "someone" and what is striking in many of their own comments--they have little to no concrete understanding of Islam, the Koran, and or the Hadith's---all they see and or hear via the internet is the IS messaging which appeals to this younger generation---free the opposed but in their own language---come be a fighter and prove yourself, come be someone, come back with pride and respect and it goes on and on.
There are many German Turkish Muslims trying to deflect that flow but get little or no support from the German government or from anyone else for that matter and mainly do it themselves to keep the younger generation from getting themselves killed.
It is extremely important to understand just how this info war messaging triggers their decisions--we are seeing the exact same thing in the Russian info war messaging and that Russian messaging is even driving decisions by "normal European politicians" where one would say they should understand the messaging but it appeals to them along the same lines as the IS messaging does.
What struck me in this particular court case was I had seen the same exact type of individual in my many Iraqi detainee interviews and yet we showed no interest in their internal drivers--once one understood those drivers it was actually easy to get conversations flowing and reach a rapport level that previously was not possible.
And we in the west greatly and totally underestimate this quality of info warfare. With absolutely no push back by western countries--
Right after the recent 25 page al Baghdadi statement release approx. 120 Islamic theorists and legal theorists some even Whabbi's condemned his statements and basically stated he had no idea of what he was talking about---even the al Nursah group in Syria openly questioned IS for their killing of the American who had recently converted to Islam.
But instead of increasing that pressure from within we remained silent.
A recent quote:
Al-Qaeda: 'ISIS Goes Too Far'." Ah the Middle East, where al-Qaeda is the voice of moderation.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-22-2014 at 04:05 PM.
Re-read Communist Revolutionary Warfare
Then somebody explain to me the one constant and common denominator is always the desire to impose Sharia Law or some other from of radical Islam or more accurately "Communism with a God". Seems to me "rational interest" have little if anything to do with the whole mess but the imposition of an Ideology is everything?
Re-read "On the nature of Revolution: The Marxist Theory of Social Change"
by Herbert Aptheker.
We could have nipped much of this in the bud early if we would have understood the problem from beginning in terms of fundamental human nature and governance.
AQ had and has a three point platform, paraphrased free of Islamist jargon it is:
Too much Western influence over the Middle East;
Too many existing regimes are too in bed with and corrupted by that Western Influence;
Need to rally together and form a unified system similar to the EU or ASEAN if we are to compete.
What part of that is counter to US interests??? We should have co-opted the heart of this message immediately, leaving bin Laden with nothing left but a bag full of crazy and a handful of followers.
We blew it. It is not too late, but we continue to blow it when we say we want to defeat ISIL and restore Iraq as it was. Be against ISIL, but we must outcompete organizations like ISIL as a source of support for a Sunni Arab population that has very reasonable concerns about remaining under Shia dominated governance.
As to Europe, they need to clean up their own act. Europe is changing, but when minorities perceive themselves to be treated unfairly they will act out. That is how they feel, and that is how they are acting. The problem is not that they went to Iraq in support of the Sunni cause, the problem is that when they return home things are still F'd up.
Governments do not need to give people what they want, they need to work to give people what they need. This includes the US that has slid into a mindset of excessive government programs that simply give things to people. You can't bribe your way out of trouble, which the Saudis will probably learn soon enough. Small changes that go to justice, dignity, popular legitimacy, empowerment, and popular sovereignty are the key.
A couple of small tweaks of policy along those lines and the US would be Canada. If the King would have been a true visionary and moved the capital from London to New York Britain would still rule the world. But that is another thread altogether...don't want to get David too excited.
Robert C. Jones
Intellectus Supra Scientia
(Understanding is more important than Knowledge)
"The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)
Shifting direction slightly.
Are we in effect via our military strikes against the IS in fact siding with the Shia militia's and Iran against the normal Sunni population. Why--because the bombing has created a perception that we are in fact in bed with the Shia---something I pointed out would indeed occur if we started bombing.
Good Jihadists vs. bad Jihadists? - "#Iraq's Shiite militias are becoming as great a danger as #IS."
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014
By the way the 170 German jihadi's are not showing signs that they want to continue the fight in Germany--in fact they seem to be wanting to distance themselves from the IS---one might call it religious fervor meeting the road of reality as many of the European fighters do not speak Arabic and are being used as simple second line "gophers" , cannon fodder in mass assaults, and or Suiciders.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-22-2014 at 08:11 PM.
We made a temporary alliance with Stalin during WWII to address a greater evil (arguably). Alliances are not always built upon mutual respect, but they are always built on common interests.
Tangentially related http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/201....html?spref=tw
Bill--fully agree with the comment but the inherent but---right now a bulk of the ME is in turmoil because of three things;
1. the total failure to settle the Israeli-Palestinian problem in a way that satisfies both parties and right now even Israeli internal politics is being driven by and many may not like the term but they are in fact ultra rightists religious zealots that force a bulk of the more moderate Israeli's farer and farer to the right thus making a compromise virtually impossible
2. the internal dispute between two regional hegemons of two uncompromising religious wings of the same religion ---the Sunni Shia divide
3. the failures of the Arab Springs outside of Tunisia
A possible fourth item might in fact be the Russian and Chinese interests inside that turmoil which they are using for their particular geo political interests.
Address those items and the ME is no longer a center of turmoil.
But by the US taking a "bombing side" and threatening to "eliminate once and for all times IS" we have dug ourselves into a ME version of the Soviet Union and AFG.
Unless we are ready to commit full military power in forcing a settlement the above items will continue to drag in time and energy until we learn to step back and allow those populations to finally settle their issues themselves regardless of outcomes even if we do not like the outcomes.
Many Americans are poor at history ---it took a 30 and 100 years war and virtually the wiping out of the civilian populations in large areas of the now Germany/Rhineland regions in order to get the two large religions of the period to settle their differences---as brutal as it sounds that must again happen in the ME.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-23-2014 at 08:12 AM.
And there is no US SF/SEAL forces co-working with the British SAS inside Iraq--so there are no US combat forces physically engaged inside Iraq--come on?
#UK 'SAS have killed 100s of #ISIS jihadis in a series of ambushes inside #Iraq
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...our-weeks.html …
Here we go again with the ISF unable to beat IS on the ground when it is a "fair fight" with no US air cover.
أبو انس مجاهد @abuanasmujahid
Major General Fadhil Jalil al-Barwari says Ramadi may completely fall to Islamic State as 221 Iraqi Special Forces killed since friday
After Spring, then Autumn and next?
As this thread moves between the local and regional, if not far wider here are two articles on the regional aspects, both via the Open Democracy blogsite.
One, The geostrategic consequences of the Arab Springstarts with a summary:It concludes:The Arab awakening is creating a new socio-political and economic reality in the region, transforming the balance of power, not because states have become stronger, but rather because states have become weak and fragile.Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/arab-a...of-arab-springThere are three fundamental geostrategic implications shaping the future of the balance of power in the Middle East. The first geostrategic consequence of the Arab Spring is the appearance of people as the main catalyst for these nations' internal dynamics.
The second geostrategic consequence is the proliferation of weak states. First, the monopoly of force has been questioned and weakened in several Arab countries, with increasing violence at sub-state level.
The third consequence is the densification of geopolitical disputes crystallized in latent conflicts. The implications will have a great impact on the relations and power structure in the Middle East.
Second an article by Professor Paul Rogers, which in summary argues:Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-r...-its-far-enemyBehind the flux of conflict on the ground in Syria-Iraq, all sides are digging in for a long war.
davidbfpo
Outlaw
Outside of our government talking heads, who said USSOF wasn't fighting?
Second, and I'm sure you will appreciate this, it would make perfect sense for any of our adversaries, especially state adversaries, to quietly (through cut outs) provide limited support to ISIS. The goal isn't for ISIS to win, but to keep the U.S. distracted and provide freedom of movement elsewhere in the world (South China Sea, Ukraine, etc.).
Bill--you bring an interesting comment---by the way where SAS shows up inside Syria and or Iraq so shows up US SOF--an "old saying". The two orgs have trained and deployed together for too many years to not work "quietly" together.
There have been some serious rumint for a number of years that indicated Russia did not do much of anything in allowing/slowing down Russian Islamists from the RF to leave Russia and fight in Syria and Iraq-estimated in the 1300 range potentially though much higher--same goes for some arms shipments from Russia that somehow "disappeared enroute to Syria" that magically reappeared in the hands of the IS. There is also some strong rumint of money laundering via the Russian mob concerning the IS stolen oil sales via Turkish criminal gangs.
Allowing the Russian Islamists to leave might inside the Russian FSB be viewed as a "hope they leave, get killed and or do not return" kind of program.
Russian fear is now the blowback as a large number of those Russian Islamists are headed home and none to happy with Russian control of their individual states inside the RF and the Russian perceived oppression of Muslims in general.
IS has by the way in a number of their recent PR releases attacked Russia directly and are serious about their threats to send home the fighters to cause Russia major problems within their Muslim populations which are extremely tense at the moment due to Russian oppression of their individual rights and there have been a number of Russian nationalist attacks on their mosques as well.
Coupled with the "disappearance" and murders of over 12 Crimea Tartars since the Russian annexation of the Crimea
--it does not bode well for Russia.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 11-23-2014 at 02:23 PM.
Ah yes, the great convergence between state, criminal, and VEO actors, which also increasingly merges the black, gray, and while economic systems. Old as mankind, but greatly accelerated and empowered by the globalized systems of trade and finance. Most are aware of this threat, but most don't appreciate the seriousness of the threat to the globalized systems we are so dependent on. Yes a nuclear armed missile or a terrorist with a WMD presents an immediate and potentially catastrophic threat that must be negated to the extent possible. We are good at identifying and planning for these types of tangible threats. What we're not good at is recognizing the risk of collapse due to forces that gradually erode the international systems, like termites gradually destroying the infrastructure of a home. If the house catches on fire we call the fire department, and we have insurance, and assorted other protocols. For termites, which is far from a perfect analogy, because we do recognize the threat and there are methods to mitigate them IF we are aware of the threat and take action. For these slower moving threats in the globalized systems we often lack awareness and fail to take collective action.There is also some strong rumint of money laundering via the Russian mob concerning the IS stolen oil sales via Turkish criminal gangs.
Appears our bombing strategy inside Syria is in fact driving anti Assad forces towards not away from IS.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...-support-isis?
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