Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing"Originally Posted by VCheng
. Sure they'll try but as always will end up spending taxpayer's money on nothing.
Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing"
LOL. Relatives and Wives wing.
That may be a good thing. India has a long way to go yet and getting carried away with foreign adventures (especially among people who are expert at extorting such adventurers) may not be the best use of scarce resources. SOME resources probably need to be committed but diminishing returns and even negative returns kick in rather quickly. The best thing is to have capable people using scarce resources efficiently. The next best thing is to have wives and relatives siphoning off a small percentage without doing too much damage. The worst thing is to have incompetents lead you into quagmires and waste trillions....see USA for details.
It is not as well managed as ISI but in fact is a slow and bureaucracy infested organisation. For the very first time since it's inception it'll be facing CAG, a notorious auditing institution. Hence, the already limited resources will be even more scarce now and no more money for relatives and wives.
I wouldn't worry too much about R&AW, no more than Afghan or Russian intelligence. They too have a grudge and unlike R&AW, civilian leadership and bureaucracy is not going to hold them down.
CIA and American SF are there to stay and won't be going anywhere, not now not ever. As soon as the Pak loses it's only card i.e. supply routes post 2014, it'll be a mess on both sides of Durrand line.
I am not "worried" about R and W in the sense of "worried what they may do to Pakistan". I was expressing the hope that R and W will not get India involved more deeply that is cost-efficient.
About Pakistan, unfortunately GHQ is not asking for advice from liberals or lefties or mildly cynical democrats. They are boxing above their weight category and ordinary Pakistanis are paying most of the price. Sadly, that may continue for a while. I agree that Relatives and Wives will probably do little damage and Afghans and Russians and CIA and ISI's own rebellious children (above all) will do more.
The following thoughts are easily misunderstood, but I do wish India would do better because I think the modern idea of India is superior to most other competing ideas in the subcontinent. I wish it success because I believe that its success will be good for a billion plus Indians and could pull up others around its periphery. I am aware that there is a large gap between idea and practice in India (and of course, there is in all countries) but the failure of this ideal would likely be a catastrophe, not just for India, but for its neighbours as well.
There may be smaller catastrophes along the way even if the idea works better, and particular neighbours may fail to benefit from its success due to their own short-sightedness or other obsessions (and it may have to succeed in spite of them, not with their cooperation), but a better India would be a net plus for the people of the region (though not necessarily for all factions).
If this sounds too mushy I would add that I do have far more cynical days..
True, but you know as well as I do that is not going to happen. As VCheng said, this opportunity is too enticing to pass up for RAW but our present government is the most timid one we ever had. Overseas adventure is not their cup of tea. Recent Maldivian crisis is a perfect example. And when a nation with a strong military is led by an economist some things are bound to go wrong.
So far the idea of Republic of India despite it's flaws and challenges have survived for 60 years and is stronger than ever. For a liberal like you it's a good thing, for a Pak hardliner it's not. I have been criticized on Indian forums for not rooting for the defeat of Pakistan in SWAT and SW. This was not out of love but I was not ready to have a neighbor whose radical but disciplined army is to be replaced by a more radical and trigger happy bunch of thugs.
This tiny planet won't survive a much larger and much more powerful "Afghanistan".
I don't know with whom I have the pleasure of discussing this topic here, but I do look forward to it.Fancy seeing you here. You guys give too much credit to "Relatives and Wives Wing"
With the situation being as volatile as it is, and being worsened by the amateurs "boxing above their weight" in the GHQ, it will not take much investment in resources from the R&AW (or for anyone else, for that matter) to achieve at least a set of goals that will keep the khakis wrapped up within their own borders for the foreseeable future.
It is not a matter of being enticing: it simply makes good policy at this point in time to further entangle the domestic situation to the point that exporting jihadi operations becomes increasingly problematic for Pakistan.
Couple that with a failing economy, chronically hopeless governance, and a clueless leadership, and India may yet have to deal with a slowly imploding nuclear armed neighbor, regardless of whether USA remains in the picture or not.
An age old lurker of PDF, hence the amazement.
Policy wise it's a bad decision to venture into Astan. Things are already messed up and R&AW playing a major role will only make it worse, for India too.It is not a matter of being enticing: it simply makes good policy at this point in time to further entangle the domestic situation to the point that exporting jihadi operations becomes increasingly problematic for Pakistan.
Couple that with a failing economy, chronically hopeless governance, and a clueless leadership, and India may yet have to deal with a slowly imploding nuclear armed neighbor, regardless of whether USA remains in the picture or not.
Other reasons are mentioned in my earlier posts.
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