Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Stan]

Mirhond, Thanks for the fast reply !

Yes, it does seem the author has some crazy ideas, but what I do see is the constant ring of EU and NATO, both membership and assistance. Cutting off Russia from the Black Sea will be a little harder to do

Happy Easter and regards, Stan

[kaur]

Mirhond, I did mean Eurasian (Economic) Union. I posted also link, but i seems you didn't bother to open it. Try this one

http://www.myshared.ru/slide/685305/

[davidbfpo]

Mirhond uses the link
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360

That is somewhat strange as the Ukrainian parliament's website is still working and is on:http://http://www.rada.gov.ua/

If you add 'pls' to the web address it to I think you get 'error 404' and adding 'zweb' gets the same.

So Mirhond where does this link you use come from?

The official website has an English version, so presumably the draft article or law would be available there, could you use a link to the official website?

Most parliaments get strange submissions, in the UK they are a way of getting publicity for a cause in the knowledge legislative success is very unlikely. If this document is genuine and I have m' doubts it could easily be an attempt to get publicity by a minority group or person.

[kaur]

Mirhond, after 1 minte Google surf this Rada member Oleg Lyashko reminds me Duma's Zhirinovski. Fights, insults etc. wow, there is already article that compares both guys. 1 word describes both "scandal". Mirhond, this is worthless spin.

http://news.tochka.net/115286-lyashk...politiki-foto/

Latest Zhirinovski scandal. In a second humor turns to personal insult against pregnant female journalist.

http://besttoday.ru/video/1743.html?...590&height=335

[mirhond]

Mirhond uses the link
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360

That is somewhat strange as the Ukrainian parliament's website is still working and is on:http://http://www.rada.gov.ua/

If you add 'pls' to the web address it to I think you get 'error 404' and adding 'zweb' gets the same.

So Mirhond where does this link you use come from?

I'll give you a hint - use site navigation
go from homepage http://www.rada.gov.ua/
to Головна > Законотворчість > Законопроекти > Пошук за реквізитами and you get to
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc2

Mirhond, after 1 minte Google surf this Rada member Oleg Lyashko reminds me Duma's Zhirinovski. Fights, insults etc. wow, there is already article that compares both guys. 1 word describes both "scandal". Mirhond, this is worthless spin.

So what? This draft is no more than piece of crap? You have some insider information from Rada, perhaps? Well, may be you and davidbfpo are right and this draft will die inside bureaucratic mashine, lets wait and see.

[Stan]

Oleg is quite the charismatic sort of guy. I'm beginning to like him and would recommend a seat in congress for him soonest

'I'll hang you by the balls and have you f***ed' – Ukrainian presidential hopeful abducts pro-Russian MP

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5rO0b1FN1M

Civilians stopped an army truck full of ammo en route from Lvov to Lugansk. I bet at least a part of this ammo will soon appear at black market in South-East cities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N98bLsJMbA

Civilians in Rodinskoye stopped a tank.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGW_wXRdDMY

Civilians in Kramatorsk stopped a BMDs column

All this reminds me some moments of Russian Revolution: In October 1917 head of Interim government Kerenski calls general Cheremisov and requests reliable troops to Petrograd to supress the unrest. Cheremisov then says: They are completly insane, where will I get them reliable troops?"

[Stan]

Mirhond,
I'm wondering what you make of these videos.

What I see is little resistance or even a general lack of concern.

These people can't be patriotic Ukrainians on the verge of once again becoming a Soviet State.

Had I been driving even a passenger car, all the people at that road block would be dead. Doesn't seem like much more that a joke and reminds me of Africa in 1984, burning tires and hustling motorist.

Is this the Ukraine that you remember ?

[mirhond]

Mirhond,

These people can't be patriotic Ukrainians on the verge of once again becoming a Soviet State.

Had I been driving even a passenger car, all the people at that road block would be dead. Doesn't seem like much more that a joke and reminds me of Africa in 1984, burning tires and hustling motorist.

Is this the Ukraine that you remember ?

1. A perfect example of Masked Man Fallacy.
2. Ukraine is already has a set of early soviet-stile traits - ideolody dominated media, highly politisized majority in capital cities, rapidly degrading economy, rule of street law, power struggle of revolutionary parties, separatism at the borders - all of this even without the Great War.
3. I have no idea what are you talking about, care to explain?

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter:pic.twitter.com/OJkBZAFbwT My apologies it was yesterday.

I have also seen limited photos of pro-Ukraine protrsts in the east, but no wide angle photos.

[Bill Moore]

Will Russia become a superpower? Part 1/2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EL_0...em-subs_digest

Provides a broad geopolitical strategic overview on Russia's strategy. If the claims are true that Russia basically has colonialized some border states by obtaining ownership of their major industries, in addition to its more overt actions in the Ukraine it appears to be a strategy that is working for them so far.

[Dayuhan]

That argument rings a bell from 70 odd years ago.

Indeed it does... and how did that work out? Was Europe overrun? Did US power collapse? Did the west fall?

No to all, of course. Despite initial concessions (appeasement, arguably), Europe and the US found a line they had the means and will to hold. That line was far enough from the Soviet core that holding it didn't provoke a potentially terminal war. Eventually, despite those early concessions, it's the Soviet Union, rotted out from the inside, that fell.

So why should we assume that if the Ukraine goes badly (it already has) or worse, that all is lost, or that the decline is irreversible? Given the overall threat of Russia (less than that of the Soviets in many ways) and the state of the Russian economy, why shouldn't it be possible to manage the conflict in much the same way, without resort to war?

Panic and woe seem hardly useful. All is not lost, there's a fair row to hoe before this is done, and given the precedents it would hardly be wise to count the West out on the basis of what happened and what's likely to happen in the Ukraine.

[Stan]

Mirhond,
Sorry for the confusion. I assumed you were or are now in the Ukraine.

3. I have no idea what are you talking about, care to explain?

[carl]

Indeed it does... and how did that work out? Was Europe overrun? Did US power collapse? Did the west fall?

No to all, of course. Despite initial concessions (appeasement, arguably), Europe and the US found a line they had the means and will to hold. That line was far enough from the Soviet core that holding it didn't provoke a potentially terminal war. Eventually, despite those early concessions, it's the Soviet Union, rotted out from the inside, that fell.

So why should we assume that if the Ukraine goes badly (it already has) or worse, that all is lost, or that the decline is irreversible? Given the overall threat of Russia (less than that of the Soviets in many ways) and the state of the Russian economy, why shouldn't it be possible to manage the conflict in much the same way, without resort to war?

Panic and woe seem hardly useful. All is not lost, there's a fair row to hoe before this is done, and given the precedents it would hardly be wise to count the West out on the basis of what happened and what's likely to happen in the Ukraine.

Holding that line took rather a lot of effort, millions of men, tens of thousands of small war machines like tanks and planes and thousands of large ones like ships and fleets of big bombers. It took decades and decades and it took on the part of the West a clear resolve to actually go to war with all those men and machines if the need arose. It also took demonstrations of that resolve through things like the Berlin Airlift, the Berlin Crisis, fielding the Pershing II missile whether the Soviets liked it or not, US and British submarines constantly on the back of Russian boats and on and on and on. It took Ron and Maggie and the Saudis agreeing to increase oil production to break the Soviet economy, Pope John Paul II carrying on after the Russians tried to have him killed, Solidarity and a lot of brave, brave Poles (we still may have those)and on and on again.

In short it took the West actually doing something and continuing to do something for a very long and expensive time. The reason we did all this was that we realized appeasement doesn't work. Appeasing just means you will have a much harder struggle on your hands later if you don't do what is needed to be done now. And that realization came after WWII when people realized that if only Hitler had been stood up to early very many innocent people would not have had to die.

That is the problem right now. There seems to be no resolve at all on the part of the West to do something while the problem is manageable. Just a vague hope that it will somehow resolve itself.

I always shake my head at blithe talk about appeasement. Those are real live breathing people with families and friends and goofy hobbies. Real live people that backs may be turned to when they ask for help. That means something.

[carl]

Carl,

Big difference for two of those countries--US and Canada-is that the majority of their citizens are not natives--they are descendants of relatively recent immigrants (except for the Native Americans, Aleuts, etc.) The peoples of Georgia are descendants of ethnic groups that have been there for millennia. If you want to compare Georgians, Abkhazians and Ossetians to Sioux, Algonquin and Cherokee, I'll accept that point.
Rome is another case all together. The original Romans were part of the tribe of Latins. So, if you want to make the comparison to say, Italy--you might be right in terms of comparing them with Samnites, Sabines, Etruscans, Campanians, etc. If you mean Rome after, say the, Samnite Wars, then the comparison is not really valid,even though some of the inhabitants of the Italian Peninsula later revolted. This revolt was the Social War (90-88 BC), a fight between Rome and the Socii, Latin for allies. The Soci lost that war and hence were unable to restore their "right" of self-determination. BTW, some of the battles/wars that Rome later fought were R2P type wars to protect other kingdoms from Parthia, Persia, etc. But once Roman armies showed up, it was usually likely a visit from the Borg--those being assisted were soon "assimilated." Of course the Persians and Parthians , even Pyrrhus of Epirus and Phillip V of Macedon, used R2P type arguments to try to curb Rome or expand their own land.

I'm not sure about the allusion to Switzerland, AKA the Swiss Confederation. Could you say a little more by way of explanation. Seems to me the folks living there have been in place at least as long as the Franks, Lombards and Burgundians in Italy and France

A country is a people and a people a country if they figure they are and are willing to fight to back up the point. That's all. If you throw in natives vs recent immigrants you are throwing in an infinitely variable factor which depends solely on personal opinion, eg. my native is your recent immigrant which is somebody else's returned rightful owner.

One of the main causes of the Social War was the Italian allies were offered Roman citizenship and then the offer was withdrawn. One of the ways the Romans ended that war was by giving the allies Roman citizenship. So the allies fought the Romans for the right to be Roman and lost the war but became Romans. All those different peoples fighting to become part of Rome.

And Roman citizenship was conferred upon most of the residents of Roman territories in 212 AD. So you had very many different peoples becoming Romans, from Syria to the Atlantic to Sahara to the North Sea. The empire lasted rather a long time after that.

As far as the Swiss go, they figure they are a nation or a people or whatever and they will fight to back it up. Since there are three languages spoken there which I am guessing represent three different cultures, sort of, and histories but they decided they are Swiss, live in Switzerland and will shoot you in the heart if you mess with that arrangement.

[Stan]

Carl,
Some salient points in both posts.

There are literally 100s of links warning against comparing WWII to the Ukraine, some very good, some not so.

They are as follows (those that I cared to read)

The Daily Beast
Not one of my info sources, but well written

Aljazeera
Requires reading between the lines to root out BS, but also well done

History News Network
Reminds me of the 80s and govt controlled wire feeds.

and

The LATimes
No comment

[Stan]

As far as the Swiss go, they figure they are a nation or a people or whatever and they will fight to back it up. Since there are three languages spoken there which I am guessing represent three different cultures, sort of, and histories but they decided they are Swiss, live in Switzerland and will shoot you in the heart if you mess with that arrangement.

Carl,
Being 50% Swiss and having read some of their govt's reactions to sanctions, I beg to differ with you. There are actually four distinct cultures and languages not counting minorities like the Amish.

But the Swiss are in a bind and not so innocent nor prepared to give up their wealthy trade.

Switzerland treads careful path over Russia sanctions

But Switzerland, also a hub for private banking and a popular destination for Russia's wealthy elite, is reluctant to take measures it fears could compromise its cherished neutrality or damage closely nurtured trade relations with Moscow.

Switzerland not to use visa restrictions against Russia over Ukraine crisis

If other countries of the Schengen Agreement impose visa restrictions, Switzerland will not follow such measures, the Swiss ambassador said.

[carl]

Stan:

I figure the biggest event in the history of humans still has a lot of lessons to teach. I figure too that some people may not want to look at the biggest event in the history of the humans for lessons because what they see may not be what they want to see, especially if it involves doing something more than hoping hard and in a pious manner.

Let's leave the Teutons out of it for a second. When the Italians went on their adventure in Abyssinia they did it only because the Brits let them. I remember reading if the RN had indicated even a slight willingness to stop them, Benito wouldn't have chanced it and sailed on back. That would have had an effect.

The unfortunate plain truth of the matter is that sometimes, you actually gotta do something. A lot of influential people don't want to hear that.

[carl]

Carl,
Being 50% Swiss and having read some of their govt's reactions to sanctions, I beg to differ with you. There are actually four distinct cultures and languages not counting minorities like the Amish.

But the Swiss are in a bind and not so innocent nor prepared to give up their wealthy trade.

Stan:

I yield to superior knowledge.

My point though was a little different. Because the Swiss nation can be as feckless and stupid as the Americans and the Brits nowadays doesn't mean they aren't a nation. They are even though they have four distinct cultures. That was my point to Wm.

[carl]

One of the things we have to realize is that with the utter irrrelevence (sic) of the EU and the uselessness of NATO the concept of those organizations or of "Europe" are meaningless now, or will be unless some backbones are grown lickity split. We are going to go back to individual countries and what they are going to do. That is what will matter. What is Poland going to do? What is Sweden going to do? We will have to think in those terms and act accordingly.

If Vlad's adventure isn't contested the world is going to get very much more complicated and therefore very much more dangerous.