A Diplomatic Solution for Ukraine
A group of Anglo-American retired diplomats, with experience of serving in the former USSR, have a short article in National Interest and it ends with:Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...-ukraine-11135...Western leaders should not shrink from employing all of their available tools to increase the incentive to Moscow to pursue a negotiated settlement.
davidbfpo
David---key sentence is here:Originally Posted by davidbfpo
In addition to a lack of good-faith participation by Russia, the negotiations have three structural weaknesses: the exclusion of key actors, the narrow scope of the talks and the illogic of pursuing a cease-fire.
There was some interesting comments being made around the bloggers yesterday to this.
There has been a lack of good faith participation by Russia for the simply reason they assume they will win in the end due to their being currently in a phase six of their New Generation Warfare and the West still outside of sanctions has not responded--coupled with the simple fact that since the Russian military has now fully engaged inside the Ukraine they cannot simply pull back as that would be assumed in their eyes and in the eyes of the hardliners as a "defeat". and sine 1945 they have not suffered a defeat---even AFG was spun to be a win.
A defeat is not in the cards as long as the Russian military has it's say in the decision making.
What is not mentioned in the article is how do you negotiate when in fact there are four groups of decision makers in the game---the military, the security services, the oligarchs, and the Russian mob---Putin is just a meditator among them all who has been great at balancing them and driving them forward. Notice all his former liberal tending advisors are not longer around him--all hardliners driven by a hatred of the West and western values.
Also not mentioned in the article---how does the West negotiate when in fact the core driver ethno nationalist imperialism built on a perceived failure by the last Communist leaders is not being addressed inside Russia itself.
Just as in the Sunni/Shia clash until that single driver is fully addressed and worked out internally Russia will remain aggressive in their belief the West is responsible for everything.
One needs to fully understand what is driving Putin and company and we in the West seem to not to want to address that as many feel nationalism under any flag died in 1994 but 20 years later it seems to be still there.
Noticed also a failure in the article to discuss what I feel is the core underlining fact for Putin and company---the 23.8.1939 secret agreement where Stalin virtually annexed five countries--even in Russia this annexation is still being denied for what it was--a blatant land grab not a merging of brotherly communists who wanted to join the SU.
Notice the countries "given to Stalin" and where Russia is pushing now--therein lies for Putin his current legitimacy as he "feels" he is channeling Stalin these days in the revival of the former SU that he has been driving since 1999 if one really goes back and reads all his interviews over the years--it is there to be read---we Americans and many Europeans simply do not take the time.
He is easy to understand--but one must read as it is all there and open source.
Still surprised how little history seems to be considered in the current thread --it is as if the statement one must learn from history is not fashionable these days?
NOTE: There is something more critical that many are not following--when the authors state about NATO and revitalization and potentially moving new bases in and around say the Baltics and Bulgaria---notice how suddenly Germany states no and references the 4 plus 2 agreements.
Really read those agreements and one will then fully understands just where the German politics with Russia go.
A really small comment that was fully over looked was made by Putin in his Duma speech which is one of the most important articles to read if one wants to understand the current events.
Putin quietly stated ---remember Germany we were the ones who allowed and supported your reunification efforts--which if one is honest and correctly looks at western leader statements to include the US---the west was not all that hep to support German reunification.
He used this comment in conjunction on his explanation of the why the Crimea was to be returned to Russia ie similar to German reunification.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-24-2014 at 09:27 AM.
BW---the Ukrainians are moving but are finding it more and more difficult as the Russian Army is providing direct fire support via artillery, BM27s and
BM21s plus moving heavy MBTs into the Ukraine.
If the Germans and US had simply provided the Ukrainians enough body armor, night vision, and anti tank weapons this would be far easier for them to counter.
I have been extremely interested in the German Kurdish response--they are willing to provide the Milan to the Kurds--but where is the IS armor and to the Ukrainians money and words are about it.
Russia continues to play the game of no I am not sending in troops, artillery and heavy weapons plus SAMs.
And what is the West's response---silence if you ask me.
And some commenters believe one can currently negotiate with Putin? He only understands the use of force and or the pain of a financial disaster and he is trying to get facts on the ground for hbis Tuesday meeting before his economy collapses and he has to explain that to his population.
Russian MP Ilya Drozdov: "The sooner the bastardly entity called Ukraine is wiped off the map, the better". pic.twitter.com/tgIOUgLcsx
Battalions "#Donbas", "#Dnepr" & #UA in #Ilovaisk say shelled by #Russian army professionals - 3-4 rounds every 30 sec. 3 WIA, 1 KIA.
Tymchuk: Russian BM-27 Uragan self-propelled rocket launchers fired into #Ukraine from #Russia hitting Kuteinykove, near #Ilovaisk, #Donetsk
A significant increase of Russian mercenaries, so called "Kadyrov Chechens" in particular, is indicated in Horlivka
In #Amvrosiyivka #Russia's soldiers without insignia spotted, 250 armored vehicles built up for a possible attack on #Mariupol, #Novoazovsk
Novoazovsk to Mariupol southern corridor; Sea of Azov (Taganrog Bay, Tahanrozka Gulf) subject to increased Russian drone surveillance #intel
There is a report that the Russian army has moved 250+ armored vehicles & artillery pieces into Amvrosiivka #Ukraine http://news.liga.net/news/politics/3..._istochnik.htm …
Separatists took the district capital of #Telmanove, #Donetsk region, under control overnight, had been shelling #Novoazovsk border point
#Amvrosiyivka, occupied #Ukraine: 250 #Russia armour and soldiers ammassing for pushing deeper into #Ukraine, poss. to attack #Mariupol
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-24-2014 at 12:11 PM.
Even the Russian are getting nervous:
Rostov on the Don airport ordered to evacuation immediately.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvzFbm3IUAAfTDD.png:large
Let's see---another reason that the west should negotiate with the Russians;
Under Articles 13 and 14 of the Geneva Convention that Russia signed in 1949--concerning the treatment of POWs and hostages.
#BREAKING #DONETSK RIGHT NOW.
RUSSIAN INVADERS PARADE HUNDREDS OF UKRAINIAN POW / HOSTAGES.
pic.twitter.com/h2WAK9Ccyc
#Donetsk #Ukraine, #Russia|n proxies forced their captives to walk through "corridor of shame
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCEmZmprIY0 … (Added by Moderator: comes up as private, owner needs to give access)
pic.twitter.com/6PvExGdPPO
Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-24-2014 at 03:59 PM.
Believe this is what JMA and others called for at the very beginning of this six months ago.
Operation Atlantic Resolve: Ironhorse BCT prepares military equipment for European deployment:
http://goo.gl/P8I38l
There is absolutely no heavy US armor on the ground in the EU to at least provide the WH another option if needed.
This is being shipped over at a massive cost---why it was never forward based as was the planning for the Reforger exercises is beyond me---maybe the DoD planners should explain why they sent all armored equipment back to the States in the first place--but wait they assumed that Russia had gone "peaceful".
By the way the 1st Cav was always a premier heavy armored division to be used in the defense of Europe- and participated in all Reforger exercises--why now instead of six months ago?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-24-2014 at 03:16 PM.
Appears that all blogger videos have been removed to include the one from the Russian LifeNews.
Was able to find the Russian LifeNews video of the POW march.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRCS_MKl2PA&app=desktop
This was in the UK Telegraph.
Here's @Telegraph's report on POW's marched thro #Donetsk #Ukraine http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...f-Donetsk.html …
#CNN #News #MH17 #Russia pic.twitter.com/TGXkRGsa0Z
Further violation of the Article 13 GC:
In a gesture intended to show that the POW's were dirty, street cleaning vehicles moved behind them. #DNR #Russia http://af.reuters.com/article/energy...0QU0FA20140824 …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-24-2014 at 04:59 PM.
BW--there has been for about three days constant blogging about Russian troops crossing over in large numbers also from the southern border area/
Yes the Ukrainians are killing large numbers but more seem to be coming over.
Then this came up this evening from a site that I have been watching and attempts to present a balance.
Maybe this is why the US is not saying a single word from the intel side.
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/2014...n-russian.html
Since the aid convoy there has been an increase in new Russian weapons seen in the Ukraine.
Here are two more that have never been seen outside of the RF and were rumored to be in development---seems they are out of the development stage.
#Russia may be testing in #Ukraine new guided missiles Pantsir and Hermes.
https://twitter.com/RutheniaRus/stat...627264/photo/1
http://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/300878.html
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2014 at 06:27 AM.
It appears that the Russian Abne Division that had the alleged "training accident" which killed personnel was visited this week by the Russian Defense Minister. This was the unit that had the shelled convoy.
Russia denies it's at war but it's DM awarded a Russian unit fighting in #Ukraine a medal Red Banner given for courage in combat--but the Russian press has stated a number of times it was a "training accident"?
The former Soviet Army simply cannot get out of their old habits with medals.
http://pln-pskov.ru/news/178748.html …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 08-25-2014 at 06:38 AM.
It seems now that they Russian FM who claims the Ukraine is constantly violating international law reference civilians cannot somehow remember that the then Soviet Union now Russia signed the GC in 1949 and the "parade" yesterday in fact violated Articles 13/14 of the GC document they signed.
Lavrov on hideous Donetsk prisoner parade: I saw nothing humiliating:https://twitter.com/astroehlein/stat...429568/photo/1
So I guess the Russian FM does not seem to think throwing eggs, throwing empty water bottles at cuffed POWs and shouting "fascists" is "nothing humiliating" when the Ukraine itself sent back quietly Russian dead and still have not displayed captured/wounded Russian military personnel who they found in a local hospital they captured.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-25-2014 at 01:00 PM.
Another Russian combat medal/honors handed out by this time Putin--this award is/was never given to a military unit in peacetime in Russia or the former Soviet Union.
#putin has awarded Suvorov medal to troopers of Chernigov brigade, which is given only for a military merit and never awarded in peace time.
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