Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---I have said since the beginning of the Crimea here at SWC a number of times that the entire issue of the colored revolts/Maidan is a serious threat to both Russia and Putin.

The Duma has passed this week a series of what I would call anti Maidan laws against demonstrations, rallies etc. and have tightened controls on the social media and the internet as a result of the Maidann.

Taken from todays Daily Beast:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...le-defeat.html

Strelkov’s mission in Ukraine, whoever gave it to him, has been bigger than just the defense of the DPR. Strelkov claims to be defending Putin’s reputation and power in Russia, too. In an interview with The Daily Beast on Thursday, Strelkov adviser Druzd spoke about the importance of Russians coming to Donbass in order to prevent a revolution like the Maidan in Kiev from spreading to Moscow.

“Putin’s popularity is fading away, since nobody has stopped the slaughter of Russians in Donbass," Druzd said. “The president’s approval rating is much lower in Moscow and St. Petersburg than in the provinces. As we know, revolutions—both French and October—were done in capitals; unfortunately, we cannot exclude attempts of the Maidan type of protests in Moscow,” Druzd explained. “For now Russia mostly sends us information and humanitarian help,” he said, when what the rebels need to defend Russian interests is “significant military support.”

Dangerous talk, certainly. As anyone who knows Putin knows, Russia’s president does not respond well to threats. If Strelkov pushes too far, he could find himself a lone gunman in a very lonely war.

[kaur]

SBU has published tape, where FSB guy Girkin/Strelok collected info from separatist recce units to order artillery fire from Russia. In Russian and Ukrainian at the moment. It seems that in their disposal is also some kind safe communication line, that at the moment of first call didn't work.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i-NoNJN...ature=youtu.be

[Firn]

Certainly if you take the different informations of differing quality coming from various sources it becomes highly likely that regular Russian artillery units and not 'only' irregular ones are indeed attacking Ukrainina forces from Russian territory. SIGINT, MASINT and so forth are very likely part of the package. Maybe we will see a larger OSINT project about that.

While there are also reasons to believe that there are some false-flag shelling it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian forces have killed civilians with artillery strikes. History is full such cases and in this conflict OSINT works, like in Syria in every direction.

[OUTLAW 09]

Certainly if you take the different informations of differing quality coming from various sources it becomes highly likely that regular Russian artillery units and not 'only' irregular ones are indeed attacking Ukrainina forces from Russian territory. SIGINT, MASINT and so forth are very likely part of the package. Maybe we will see a larger OSINT project about that.

While there are also reasons to believe that there are some false-flag shelling it is pretty obvious that Ukrainian forces have killed civilians with artillery strikes. History is full such cases and in this conflict OSINT works, like in Syria in every direction.

Firn--right now there is an active false flag operation being carried out by the Russian mercenaries in their shelling from the Ukraine into Russia which is being used by Russian to argue the Ukrainian Army needs to rein in their shelling's of civilians and the Russian border---the shelling's are coming from areas where they are no UA/NG units based.

Interfax released a statement today indicating the FSB had counted 15 impacts on Russian soil but somehow that same glorious FSB "seems" to be unable to count the tanks, SAM11s, artillery, BM21s and hundreds of Russian mercenaries who are crossing in the opposite direction.

The FSB must be totally asleep at the wheel when it comes to looking westward.

[Firn]

Firn--right now there is an active false flag operation being carried out by the Russian mercenaries in their shelling from the Ukraine into Russia which is being used by Russian to argue the Ukrainian Army needs to rein in their shelling's of civilians and the Russian border---the shelling's are coming from areas where they are no UA/NG units based.

One should not rule out that Ukrainian shells hit Russia territory, however I agree that the Kremlin has been busy at creating pretexts or cover for all sorts of activities from invasion, occupation, 'insugencies', infiltrations, weapon shipments and so forth. In short with all the lies and propaganda streaming out of Russia it is mighty hard to identify the seemingly rare true staff in it.

[OUTLAW 09]

One should not rule out that Ukrainian shells hit Russia territory, however I agree that the Kremlin has been busy at creating pretexts or cover for all sorts of activities from invasion, occupation, 'insugencies', infiltrations, weapon shipments and so forth. In short with all the lies and propaganda streaming out of Russia it is mighty hard to identify the seemingly rare true staff in it.

Firn---the reason the Ukrainian side rings true is that the OSCE has tried to get the Russians to allow them into a lot of border areas to include the smuggling areas ---but the Russians tried to park them on two minor out of the way crossings no where close to the crossing points being fired at and used for smuggling.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---this came across today and it ties into the JCoS article in the Daily Beast from today.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0Q01CS20140725

Same content covered by the German der Spiegel

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-982972.html

JCoS statement equating Putin to Stalin 1939.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...of-poland.html


Although the Russian mercenaries have already gotten the BM27 based on several duds seen in a Russian irregular released video claiming the UA had shelled a town---the duds were BM27 calibers.

[OUTLAW 09]

SBU has published tape, where FSB guy Girkin/Strelok collected info from separatist recce units to order artillery fire from Russia. In Russian and Ukrainian at the moment. It seems that in their disposal is also some kind safe communication line, that at the moment of first call didn't work.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i-NoNJN...ature=youtu.be

kaur--there was some blog chatter a couple of days ago about the Russian resupplies that were also delivering some new Russian military crypto cell phones or secure satcom phones due to the heavy intercepts going on--basically they cannot stop talking---but knowing the NSA if they can get off of listening to jihadi's and onto to Russians and the Russian mercenaries can provide a wealth of information if they would finally declass it. and release it to the world

If it is new that could explain their having initial difficulty in using them.

Have you seen anything being mentioned ie videos, tweets on the large Russian training center near Rostov that is the transit resupply point and training point for the Russian mercenaries? In the Ukrainian military intel slang they are calling it "Ft. Bragg" referring to the US Army base in NC.

[OUTLAW 09]

The author of this Foreign Policy is totally correct---the only way you will finally get the attention of Putin and his personal advisors is truly going after his money---for the Russian elite-it has been and will always be about the money.

While Obama has refrained from it and sent subtle signals trying to get Putin to rein it in---now maybe a really big cannon shot splashed across the front pages of the morning's global media might be the nudge to make him wake up and smell the coffee.

Putin is a hardcore basic Communist of the old days kind-he does understand when he is threatened and he will move if the threat is serious enough---there has to be some old guard Communist intel specialists still left in Washington that have not retired?

It seems the blogger world is far more in tune to world politics and what can be done without firing a shot than the entire US NSC, CIA, DIA, and NSA---as they have definitely been beating them to the news cycles.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...n_ukraine_mh17

The Russian leadership right now appears to be in an altered state of reality---maybe psychologists instead of the NSC should be handling the US responses to Putin?

Interfax from today:

20:13 Moscow accuses Washington of fomenting tension in Russian-U.S. relations (Part 2)

So exactly what does the Russian leadership think they themselves have been doing in all of this since the Crimea? This is that old Russian game of everyone else is at fault but not us.

It will continue until someone cuts off the money and the reality of that seats in.