China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Ron Humphrey]

that China is or would be a more than effective foe.

I think the big thing I look to is the fact that most of how their society works always seemed to be based in order vs chaos. Structure vs compromise.

All or nothing in unrestricted warfare while being a very real concern doesn't really seem to be as likely as some other forms of movement from them.

Chaos tends to stem from unrestricted conflict, and isn't that somewhat counter to their philosophical and social constructs.

To look at them in the same way as say a Hitlers Germany or Soviet union
doesn't seem to be a good comparison
(Wouldn't they be the first ones to look to get maximum effect from least effort being more patient than others.) SOFT Power


This will keep them on a path of growth but their not the only ones growing and their close neighbors are on schedule to out populate them within ten years or so plus I think have even more specialization in the maths and science areas.

Just asking these are some of what my assumptions or limited knowledge is in this regard. Please disabuse me of those which are incorrect or mistaken.

[JeffC]

that China is or would be a more than effective foe.

I think the big thing I look to is the fact that most of how their society works always seemed to be based in order vs chaos. Structure vs compromise.

I think that even experts on the subject would disagree about how the evolution of Chinese government is progressing. It's certainly still a Communist regime, but not in the way that it was under Mao. If anything, I think we're observing something completely different from what China has been in the past, thanks to the success of capitalism in Hong Kong and Shanghai. I think the government is trying to find ways to embrace it's economic success with a totalitarian style of government, and will wind up with some kind of hybrid. What this conveys to me is that we pigeon-hole China to our detriment, and should try to avoid applying old dualistic concepts in our effort to understand today's People's Republic.

All or nothing in unrestricted warfare while being a very real concern doesn't really seem to be as likely as some other forms of movement from them.

UW takes a holistic approach, known in contemporary terms as a systems approach, to warfare. In this way, their educational priorities are a part of UW. Corporate espionage is a part. WMD development is a part. Energy alliances is a part. And so on. Mechanistic theory, which the West has operated on for the past 150 years, breaks things down into separate components. Systems theory looks at how each part interacts and connects with the whole. That's what UW does as well.

Chaos tends to stem from unrestricted conflict, and isn't that somewhat counter to their philosophical and social constructs.

Chaos to a westerner may not be viewed as chaotic to someone well-read in the Tao, or in Zen Buddhism. It's a different way of perceiving reality then Westerners are used to.

To look at them in the same way as say a Hitlers Germany or Soviet union
doesn't seem to be a good comparison

I agree, and that reminds me of Max Boot's flawed advice on exporting Democracy to the Middle East from the barrel of a gun. "We did it in Germany and Japan. Why not Iraq and Iran?"

This will keep them on a path of growth but their not the only ones growing and their close neighbors are on schedule to out populate them within ten years or so plus I think have even more specialization in the maths and science areas.

Speaking as someone whose employer has engineers from both countries, and operations in both countries, China is ahead of India in technology-based R&D. That's just my observation, not the result of an independent study.

But more importantly, China is aggressively pursuing building strategic relationships with lots of other countries, including India. It's not operating in a vacuum.