Supply routes to Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

A BBC News report which opens with:

The Pakistani cabinet has ordered officials to finalise a deal as quickly as possible to bring an end to a six-month blockade on overland Nato supplies into Afghanistan. But it has stopped short of announcing when the transit lines will reopen.

How about this, sorry it is a scam IMO:

Pakistani MPs also support the idea of Nato paying Islamabad a levy to use the routes, in addition to paying the lorry drivers' salaries....Pakistan's civilian government has to draw up a budget in a couple of weeks' time and desperately needs US cash which is currently being held up because of the tensions

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18095383

I am sure the US Congress will be grateful to pay more to Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

More speculation and selective briefing on the talks on renewed use of Pakistani territory, for overland transport and a reported US$5k per container - for 'wear & tear" on the roads etc:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...kUU_story.html

I noted this paragraph, with my emphasis:

U.S. officials noted that the parliamentary recommendations being debated referred only to nonlethal supplies traveling into Afghanistan but proposed no such restriction on outgoing goods.

There's also a nice map of the NDN, Pakistani and other links:http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...H_graphic.html

[omarali50]

Someone seems to think its not a done deal:http://www.firstpost.com/world/hopes....T7a6oCmy8og.I

The likelihood is that this is misinfomation, psyops (as in preparing public opinion in Pakistan) or just slight delay while the last haggling takes place. But one can still hope. Maybe NATO is playing hardball, or at least trying to save some money?

[omarali50]

A theory about why supplies are still stuck.
http://www.brownpundits.com/why-is-p...nato-supplies/

What do you think?

[carl]

Omar:

You put point three in there for comic relief right? Other than that it sounds quite good to me, especially the money part.

[davidbfpo]

Well it seems that ISAF has made a decision, from the BBC:

Nato has signed deals with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to use their territory for evacuating vehicles and military equipment from Afghanistan. The agreement will allow the military alliance to bypass Pakistan, which has blocked Nato from using its territory in a disagreement over drone strikes. Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen... "These agreements will give us a range of new options and the robust and flexible transport network we need."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18326970

I imagine Russia is chuckling at the prospect of a significant profit on moving items by train to the Baltic ports. One wonders how much each state will charge for a container and if GPS is fitted to those cargoes that have a propensity to go AWOL.

[omarali50]

Carl, Point 3 was meant as "some people say...". Some people do say that. I find it hard to believe because I dont think US policy is ever that clever. Personally, I tend to assume that what you see is what you get, with the caveat that there must be many small conspiracies and overclever schemes below the surface, but they probably cancel each other out. Something like that.

David, the price gouging in the North is going to be insane, which is why Pakistan still has hope for its 5000 dollar demand. But just "a case", not a done deal. They may haggle themselves out of it...

[davidbfpo]

I have a vague recollection after Op Desert Storm non-lethal supplies were buried, notably medical equipment. Once the logistical and financial calculations are made I expect the Afghans will be digging for years to come.

[omarali50]

Does anyone remember a Len Deighton short story set in Vietnam, lots of supplies left over from the war? I think it was in "declarations of war"...

[carl]

However many containers are lost coming out on the northern route, it would have to go a long way to equal the loss on the southern. There was a Bloomberg article last year that estimated something like 29,000 containers went missing in Pakistan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...eled-boom.html

[davidbfpo]

A comprehensive examination of supplying war, which starts with the strategic setting - a point we rarely mention - and then turns to examining the complexities around supplying the war in Afghanistan.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/derek-g...ns-of-distance

In footnote (xx) I noted this:

‘Sensitive’ supplies remain the preserve of military convoys, so that even this degree of outsourcing has required the Army to dedicate over 30 per cent of its enlisted force in Afghanistan in 2011 to logistics operations.

[davidbfpo]

“The meeting of Pakistan’s defence committee (DCC) of the cabinet has decided to reopen the Nato supplies,” ....The official announcement came after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said ...the United States was “sorry” for losses suffered by the Pakistani military in November.

....no lethal cargo will go into Afghanistan except equipment ANSF, essential for ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan.... Pakistan will continue not to charge any transit fee

Link:http://dawn.com/2012/07/04/pakistan-...-supply-lines/

There is a little more on:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18691691

A noteworthy development. It will be interesting to see how the non-lethal condition works out and whether more leaves than goes in soon.

[omarali50]

lets have an informal office pool. What date will the supply lines be shut again (for any reason)? Give one concrete date. Whoever is closest, wins the office pool.
My guess: 23rd August.

[omarali50]

Why its likely back to square one: http://www.brownpundits.com/?p=7342

[carl]

lets have an informal office pool. What date will the supply lines be shut again (for any reason)? Give one concrete date. Whoever is closest, wins the office pool.
My guess: 23rd August.

Oct 11, one month before the election.

[Ken White]

Oct 11, one month before the election.

...You finally acknowledge the part US domestic politics play in our 'military' operations...

There may be hope for you after all...

[omarali50]

Oct 11, one month before the election.

Now you actually seem to have thought about this. I literally let God decide (or pulled it out of my Ass, if you prefer the saltier version). I said the first date that came into my head. Lets see if my unconscious (or God) does better than your rational calculation.

[omarali50]

Professor Fair agrees with me. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/c-chri...BNotifications

OK, I agree with her.

[carl]

I ask this question of all. Ms. Fair I always thought was a mainstream inside the beltwayer. What she said reflected the elite conventional wisdom. In the article Omar referenced, she seems to actually advocate getting tough, genuinely tough with the Pak Army/ISI and in so many words recognizing that they are the enemy. Am I reading this right? It seems as if the genii inside the beltway have actually noticed the sun in the sky. Could that actually be the case?

[Dayuhan]

Good review:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...e_mud_3-071912

Stuck in the Mud
The Logistics of Getting Out of Afghanistan

It took seven months of tough bargaining with Islamabad for the United States to get Pakistan to reopen its border with Afghanistan to NATO supply trucks. Until the border closed last year, about 5,000 trucks a month had plowed their way from the Pakistani port city of Karachi, through dusty Baluchistan, around the Taliban-infested switchbacks of the Khyber Pass, and on to Bagram, Kandahar, and other NATO logistical hubs in Afghanistan. That came to a halt in November, after a U.S. air raid mistakenly killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and Islamabad retaliated by suspending NATO traffic. It would reopen the border, it said, only if the United States both apologized and agreed to pay much higher transport fees for the NATO trucks traversing its territory. Islamabad eventually dropped the fee demand, but it did induce U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to say sorry.

After the November shutdown of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, NATO reoriented its supply routes to northern Afghanistan through a series of roads in Central Asia, which make up what is known as the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The seven-month total dependence on the northern transportation routes, which are circuitous and treacherous, cost the United States hundreds of millions of dollars and much heartache. Far from being a thing of the past, the troubles associated with the NDN are here to stay: even after the reopening of the border with Pakistan, use of the NDN will remain crucial as NATO starts to ship home equipment as part of the drawdown this summer.

By the end of 2014, NATO needs to remove about 100,000 shipping containers full of equipment and 50,000 wheeled vehicles from Afghanistan; it will leave behind any unused fuel. NATO officials point out that in order for all International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) military equipment to be removed from Afghanistan in time, a container would have to leave the country every seven minutes, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, starting now -- a tough order...