Operationalizing The Jones Model through COG

[Dayuhan]

My point was that the Saudis DO NOT sell us discount oil in exchange for commiting our national treasure, reputation and blood to their continued defense. They see it as their right.

Possibly they simply see it as a mutual interest, which it is. We defend the Saudis against external aggression because it is in our interest to do so. Why would we expect to be paid, or given concessions, for acting in our own interest?

Most Saudi's want moderate reforms, such as a judiciary not controlled by the King (Justice, anyone?); Others would like to have some voice (Hope) in the system; others greater equality (Respect); many perceive (and this perception is targeted heavily by OBL, who is not a Saudi insurgent, he is conducting UW to incite and leverage the Saudi populace to rise up) that the King would not be such a bad guy but that he has lost his way in eroding his support to what the people want in favor of his relationship with the US, thereby calling his (legitimacy) into question.

I wouldn't presume to know what most Saudis want.

I do know that in the 90s many Saudis believed (and stated) that there was a connection between the continued American military presence and the painfully low (for them) price of oil. That perception was inaccurate, but it was widespread and had an extremely negative impact on Saudi perceptions of the US. There was a widespread belief that the US troops would never leave, that the US would never allow Saudi Arabia to get what they saw as a fair price for oil, that the US would never allow Saudi Arabia the international position that they thought it deserved, that the US would ultimately begin converting Muslims and violating the holy places, etc. Those beliefs created a great deal of resentment and friction. They are also gone. The American troops are gone, the holy places are unviolated, no conversions happened. The price of oil soared, and the US just paid up, like everyone else. At the height of the oil price spike President Bush went to Riyadh to ask the king to pump more oil; the King told him that the problem was speculation, not supply, and refused. The regional implications of that visit, long forgotten by most Americans, are profound. The claim that the US controls the king is empty, and everyone knows it but the most blinded religious extremists.

I don't think any significant number of Saudis see any connection between US influence and their own complaints with the local justice system... or any other local issues. There's a great deal of internal conflict on these issues, generally between (relative) progressives and the religious traditionalists, but the US has no real influence on internal affairs. I've heard all kinds of accusations directed at the US by Saudis, many of them pretty wild, but I've never heard anyone claim that the US is obstructing reform in the Saudi justice system. I've heard a lot of complaint about US pressure to reform that justice system in accord with our view of human rights, but nobody saying that the US is preventing change or reform.

I repeat... what exactly do you think we could do to force the Saudis to modify their domestic policies, and what specific modifications in Saudi domestic policy would you seek?

Every culture is different and needs to develop guiding documents and forms of govenrance that work for them. But there are principles that can be derived from American documents that are proven effective in the prevention of Governmental abuses and the resultant insurgency that comes from such abuses.

Possibly so, and there are lessons as well in the founding principles and experiences of many other nations. If others choose to learn from these, or use them as models, all well and good. We can't force anyone to do that, and if we try to push anyone in that direction we're likely to end up driving them away from it. People don't like to be pushed, and it's not our role or responsibility to be telling others how to govern themselves. To help, perhaps, if we're asked to help... and even then we have to be very careful and very restrained. But to take the initiative in some sort of behaviour modification program aimed at other nations... nothing there but trouble, I'm afraid. If we go around telling people not to despair, we are coming to save them with our carrots and our sticks, I really don't anticipate a very positive reaction.