Israel & intelligence (merged thread)

[Rex Brynen]

There's no particular downside to the Israelis from this hit (other than a few Mossad operatives whose photos have now been circulated). It sends a message, possibly prods Hamas into a poetentially self-destructive mole-hunt, removes an effective operative, and pays off well domestically.

Had they botched it--as they did in Lillehammer in 1973, Amman in 1997, or Auckland in 2004 it would have been a different matter. Also, unlike the Mishal assassination attempt in Jordan, I don't think Israeli relations with Dubai/UAE are of particular concern to the Netanyahu government (although Wilf might want to be careful next time he's traveling to or via the Gulf!)

[William F. Owen]

There's no particular downside to the Israelis from this hit (other than a few Mossad operatives whose photos have now been circulated). It sends a message, possibly prods Hamas into a poetentially self-destructive mole-hunt, removes an effective operative, and pays off well domestically.

Wallah! Can't argue with any of that. Nice to see some opinion based on actual understanding.

although Wilf might want to be careful next time he's traveling to or via the Gulf!

Well I think I failed the Institute amateur-night try-outs back in my twenties, and these days everyone knows where I stand....

[omarali50]

I disagree with the notion that it sows fear and confusion. If anything, it shows that they cannot do this every day. And whatever fear and confusion there is in the arab world, its imaginary conspiracy variant is already a few hundred times bigger than any real capabilities the Israelis have. I dont see this adding much to that "fear".
I also disagree with the statement that there is no downside. It is always unsafe to assume that current trends will persist forever. Military capabilities are ultimately tied to resources and capabilities of the society fielding that military. There is a large gap between the capabilities of Israeli (and US) society and Arab societies, but its not an infinite gap. Its going to close someday. Meanwhile, Israel is dependent on US support (European support has never been as impressive and is already declining) and that support is easier to provide when it is relatively cheap. When it gets hugely expensive and starts to bite, then the best of friends will start to think twice. Long before Arab military capabilities come close to Israel's, the Arab's ability to manipulate public opinion will improve to the point that US opinion will shift. These shenanigans bring that day closer, so they are not smart from an Israeli point of view. Just my opinion.

[Schmedlap]

I see this as nothing but a win for the Israelis, not just because their adversary was killed, but because everybody is now talking about it, and regardless of whether Israel confirms or denies it, everybody is assuming that they did it. Message: we wanted you dead, and now you are. My only gripe is that nobody seems to see an issue with some supposed man of the people living the high life in Dubai. This is some "freedom fighter" who is fighting for the little guy, right? But he's living large in Dubai? Was he also pimpin around Gaza in an Escalade?

[Rex Brynen]

I disagree with the notion that it sows fear and confusion.

The fear and confusion stems from the possibility that the presumably highly compartmentalized information on al-Mabhouh's mission might have been leaked from within Hamas, or through compromised means of communication. Certainly Hamas as an organization won't be intimidated.

What will be interesting--and in this regard, the operation could have negative consequences for Israel--is whether Hamas lifts its self-prohibition on external operations (ie, those outside Palestine) to retaliate against an Israeli target in a third country.

My only gripe is that nobody seems to see an issue with some supposed man of the people living the high life in Dubai.

He appears to have been in Dubai for operational reasons, Schmedlap--he didn't live there

[tequila]

The U.S. Congress will.

Amen to that.

Omar, the Israelis have been caught red-handed spying on the U.S. several times. A U.S. Congressperson was caught on tape agreeing to try to interfere with an investigation of said spying with a suspected Israeli intelligence asset, signing off by saying "this conversation doesn't exist." There really isn't much that Israel can't do that Congress won't sign off on.

[TheLapsedPacifist]

It's all a bit of a soap-opera...the BBC's reaction that the UK passports was a bit melodramatic...the photos were obviously fake - big grins, large glasses, wigs, I expected some dodgy porn-facial hair, but was disappointed!

So who dunnit? Well, from one perspective, who cares...a very bad man is not with us anymore.

And I don't see this as bad for the Israelis...the rest of the nations have deployed hundreds of thousands of soldiers in prolonged campaigns, spent billions, suffered hundreds of casualties, and thousands of civilians have died and we don't have our man...the Israelis quietly located this guy and dealt with him...that Gentlemen is deterrence that an insurgent can understand. More of the same, I hope.

Whilst I'm on my soapbox, I find the fact that Dubai is preparing to ask InterPol to issue arrest warrants laughable...I don't presume that Dubai was very busy trying to arrest this guy living under their noses in the lap of luxury?

[Rex Brynen]

that Gentlemen is deterrence that an insurgent can understand.

Oh, it's certainly not deterrence in any form. It might damage operational effectiveness somewhat, but it won't have any effect on the willingness of Palestinians to join, or support, Hamas.

[omarali50]

It's all a bit of a soap-opera...the BBC's reaction that the UK passports was a bit melodramatic...the photos were obviously fake - big grins, large glasses, wigs, I expected some dodgy porn-facial hair, but was disappointed!

So who dunnit? Well, from one perspective, who cares...a very bad man is not with us anymore.

And I don't see this as bad for the Israelis...the rest of the nations have deployed hundreds of thousands of soldiers in prolonged campaigns, spent billions, suffered hundreds of casualties, and thousands of civilians have died and we don't have our man...the Israelis quietly located this guy and dealt with him...that Gentlemen is deterrence that an insurgent can understand. More of the same, I hope.

Whilst I'm on my soapbox, I find the fact that Dubai is preparing to ask InterPol to issue arrest warrants laughable...I don't presume that Dubai was very busy trying to arrest this guy living under their noses in the lap of luxury?

pacifist, I find nothing surprising in your letter, but I do have a prediction: In a few years, the media equation will start to change AND the costs of blindly supporting Israel will accelerate until even the rich and powerful US will have to think twice before spending billions carrying water for Israel all over the world...then, these apparently "normal" views will change.
Dont take my word for it, just be willing to rethink assumptions and look around...you will see that this situation is not tenable forever. It is in the interest of the Israeli people to make a reasonable peace with the Palestinians. Trying to beat and bludgeon their way out of this will not work.

[Firn]

The fear and confusion stems from the possibility that the presumably highly compartmentalized information on al-Mabhouh's mission might have been leaked from within Hamas, or through compromised means of communication. Certainly Hamas as an organization won't be intimidated.

What will be interesting--and in this regard, the operation could have negative consequences for Israel--is whether Hamas lifts its self-prohibition on external operations (ie, those outside Palestine) to retaliate against an Israeli target in a third country.

I agree mostly. As I wrote before it is hard to say which positive and negative impacts this possibly Mossad coup will have. We should not just look at the "bright" side.


Firn