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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    What has he gained from a strategy of deniability that no one actually believes? What would have been the result of simply seizing Eastern Ukraine and Crimea when this started?
    BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

    Like water off a ducks back one might say.

    Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.

  2. #422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    If Russia tries to take a bite at Kazakhstan the Kazakhs will likely be looking to the east for support, not to the west, and they are likely to get it. China has a significant and rising presence there, and has made Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan central pillars in the campaign for access to oil and gas that doesn't have to pass through marine space outside their sphere of influence.

    Kazakhstan's Russian population is concentrated in the north, along the border... not where the oil is, but I wouldn't bet on the Kazakhs letting it go easily.

    Potentially an interesting situation, though not one that would necessarily involve the US.
    Dayuhan---100% correct---China will have a definite role to play and will play that role but Putin feels he is wrapping China around his finger--or at least he is assuming that.

  3. #423
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    BW--- a great German article on how the sanctions worked well in South Africa and the Iran ---but Putin is driving massive holes in the sanctions within Europe and between Europe and the US--remember part of his strategy is in fact driving a large wedge between the US and Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz...=veeseoartikel

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BW--it is not what he gains but what he can "sell" and right now he is selling the story "it ain't his troops, money or mercenaries" extremely well.

    Like water off a ducks back one might say.

    Remember what he is selling is not always focused at the EU/US but at his internal consumer who will elect him overwhelmingly in the next election.
    An invasion could have been just as easily been sold to that audience. Protecting Russian people from harm, etc. The Russian people have never not backed him on this and would have backed other options. He controls the message and could have crafted the message needed to sell an invasion to protect the Russian minorities in Ukraine.

  5. #425
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BW--- a great German article on how the sanctions worked well in South Africa and the Iran ---but Putin is driving massive holes in the sanctions within Europe and between Europe and the US--remember part of his strategy is in fact driving a large wedge between the US and Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz...=veeseoartikel
    Sanctions aren't as strong as Iran. Plus, he is increasing the political will to do more, not decreasing it. A simple invasion would have not been resulted in as strong of sanctions as we have seen now.

  6. #426
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    Headline claims, that this is video of Chechen unit before entering Ukraine. I speculate that this is 9th Russian brigade that is manned with Chechens. Seems to be battalion tactical group. Upgraded MBTL-s, MSTA self-propelled artillery, logistics convoy and battle cry "Allahu akbar", before going to liberate Russkii Mir.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1tfU_6wxls

  7. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Headline claims, that this is video of Chechen unit before entering Ukraine. I speculate that this is 9th Russian brigade that is manned with Chechens. Seems to be battalion tactical group. Upgraded MBTL-s, MSTA self-propelled artillery, logistics convoy and battle cry "Allahu akbar", before going to liberate Russkii Mir.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1tfU_6wxls
    kaur----

    According to Butusov, the Russian forces fighting against Ukrainian military forces near Ilovaisk in the “B” sector include units of the 106th Airborne (Ryazan) and the 98th Airborne (Ivano, Kostroma) divisions, the 9th Infantry (Nizhny Novgorod), and the 18th Infantry (Chechnya) brigades.

    “A number of our captives have been moved to the Russian Federation,” he says.

    Butosov reports that the Russian troops are reinforced by special services units of Russia’s GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate — Russia’s intelligence agency — Ed.) and artillery units of the North Caucasus Military District.

    The Russian groups are taking up positions in the region of Donetsk, Starobeshevo, Kuteinyk, Noviy Svit.

    “The total number of groups in the area stands at no fewer than 6 battalion task forces plus reinforcement units — at least 7,000-8,000 people. The Russians are reinforcing their supply lines and rear units, “he says.

  8. #428
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    Looks like the Russian public is now getting more information on killed Russian soldiers:

    Up to 15,000 Russian soldiers sent to #Ukraine in past 2 months, perhaps 200 died - Says Russian mothers group
    http://bit.ly/Y6myTz

    BREAKING #Russian media has published solid evidence of perished army soldiers in #Ukraine w death certificates.

  9. #429
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    Another example of the Russian "altered state of reality":

    Russian fascists & neo-Nazis meet in Yalta and set up an "Anti-Fascist Council' to fight the "fascist" regime in Kyiv

    http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1409512010

  10. #430
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    Eduard Limonov presents his National Bolshevik Party unit in Luhansk.

    http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/531874.html

    In the next post he comments meeting in Moscow where RF ministry of interior affairs subunit that fight against extremist was monitoring his people.

    http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/531617.html

    What the logic? Russian police considers them threat and at the same time they are fighting for Russia' cause?

    Outlaw, my mistake with Chechen units nr.

  11. #431
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    I found this interesting.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/wo...-say.html?_r=0

    WASHINGTON — As Ukrainian leaders warned on Monday of “a great war” with Russia, NATO leaders meeting in Wales this week were expected to endorse their most concrete response yet to increased Russian military intervention in Ukraine: establishing a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, officials of the alliance said.

    The new force of some 4,000 troops, capable of moving on 48 hours’ notice, will be supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments that are intended to make NATO’s commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.
    We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.

  12. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    I found this interesting.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/wo...-say.html?_r=0



    We need to use Russian actions as a clear message to all of Eastern Europe(Finland, Sweden, Georgia, etc) that joining NATO is the only means to ensure their security.
    BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.

  13. #433
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    This appears to be another example of the current Russian "altered state of reality".

    The country goes through a massive Maidan uprising in the freezing cold and getting 100s injured or killed just to define their own rule of law and good governance and head towards Europe as a goal.

    Which did not set well with Russia who wanted to reestablish their sphere of influence and wanted the Ukraine in the EEC not in the EU---which then triggered the Russian UW/political war with the Ukraine and the resulting invasion when it appeared that they rag tag Ukrainian Army was in fact defeating the Russia mercenaries.

    Now again in this Russian FM statement released via RIA one sees that if the Ukraine is driving still towards the EU and eventually NATO the Russian FM basically threatened more invasion and violence.

    Changing one's country status is a population decision not a decision by Russia in another country.

    MOSCOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s initiative to change its “non-bloc status” and join NATO undermines efforts in settling the Ukrainian crisis peacefully, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday.

    “There is one very interesting fact: that this initiative appeared right after the meeting in Minsk where agreements on the process of the Contact Group were trying to find a commonly acceptable decision on the current domestic crisis in Ukraine,” Lavrov said during a live televised joint press conference with Tunisian Foreign Minister Mongi Hamdi.

    Lavrov said that the “peace party” in Kiev is trying to develop a negotiation-based and political solution to the crisis in Ukraine, whereas the “war party” is taking steps “targeted at undermining these efforts.”

    “It’s quite unfortunate that such moods in strengthening the positions of the ‘war party’ are actively warmed up and urged on out of Washington and several European capitals, and more and more often out of Brussels and from the NATO Headquarters where the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Alliance with or without reason comes out with announcements that do not fall under his jurisdiction,” Lavrov said.

    Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk introduced legislation to the country’s parliament to drop its “non-aligned bloc” status, renewing its path to becoming a member of NATO.

  14. #434
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    It has been simply amazing these last six months in watching how one country and it's senior leader Putin and it's FM time after time after time completely reverse reality.

    Thus my statement they are residing currently in an "altered state of reality" having believed their own propaganda.

    Open source viedoes, photos, and journalist interviews --countless in number have repeated shown the Russian irregulars and mercenaries shelling their own villages, and towns, encircling their own villages and towns, shelling/killing civilians attempting to flee the fighting and indiscriminately killing, looting, raping, and torturing civilians and Ukrainain military personnel.

    Not the Ukrainian Army -----and yet Putin and his FM continue to state "we had to step in to keep the Ukrainian Army for destroying cities, villages and towns by shelling and launching ballistic missiles/using illegal weapons ie WP and cluster munitions, and indiscriminately killing civilians"---civilians meaning "Russians"--notice they never mention Ukrainian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.

    When in the face of the overwhelming open source---both are outright lying.

    It is the ability to see reality and yet claim to have "seen something else" hat in fact makes leaders extremely dangerous.

    From today's Der Spiegel Online--in German--goes straight into this "altered state of reality".

    Basically it is calling Putin a blatant lair.

    So again the question to commenters---if a leader is a blatant lair then how can the West "trust" anything he says?

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-989247.html

  15. #435
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    Some here would think the Russian Defense Ministry and a Russian mercenary are smoking pot if their statements were not so darn serious.

    Yesterday via YouTube a Russian mercenary called Motorola threatened to fire BM21/27s missiles into Poland for the Polish voiced support for the Ukraine and more and more Polish fighters joining the UA Army to fight Russians.

    Then we have the Russian Defense Minister via back channels basically threatening to fire tactical nuclear weapons at the Ukrainian Army if they do not stop fighting both the Russian Army and the Russian mercenaries.

    It seems the longer this rag tag army of the Ukraine hangs on and the higher the Russian military WIA/KIA tolls go the more ludicrous the statements are that are being made by Putin, his FM, and now his DM.

    Everything from being in Kiev in two weeks, to "Russian soldiers are on vacations and took their tanks with them", to no Russian military inside the Ukraine and now to nuclear weapon threats to yes I want a new state called "New Russian" in the former eastern/southern Ukraine and along the way I also want Kazakhstan.

    http://www.inquisitr.com/1447008/rus...nister-claims/

  16. #436
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    Another example of Putin's "altered state of reality":

    He was quoted as telling the EU President of the EU Commission recently that "he could take Kiev in two weeks".

    Now his press manager is attempting to walk it back with the following RIA press release from today.

    Not sure just how a Russian/Italian interpreter could have gotten the wrong translation of "I can take Kiev in two weeks"---that is actually rather straight forward and hard to misinterpret.

    Anyway--another shinning example of Putin's "altered state of reality".

    Kind of goes to the Russian recent critique of the US Ukrainian Ambassador stating via a Tweet--"Russian had invaded the Ukraine"---Russia complained that it was not the proper channel for such comments coming from an Ambassador.

    MOSCOW, September 2 (RIA Novosti) – A quote about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apparent ability “to take Kiev in two weeks,” by European Commission President Jose Manual Barroso earlier in the week, was taken out of context and had a completely different meaning, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said Tuesday.

    NOTE: He seems to not want to then state what the completely different meaning was actually to be---notice he forgot that piece of information in the article?

    “This is incorrect, this goes beyond the framework of diplomatic practice. This is unbecoming of a serious political figure,” Ushakov said, referring to Barroso’s comment.

    NOTE: Not sure what an be taken out of content with the statement--"I can take Kiev in two weeks"---also not sure why the Russian are all of a sudden so darn emphatic on what diplomacy/diplomatic practice is these days since they even declare satellite photos of Russian troops/artillery to be "lies from a video game".

    Earlier this week, Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that after Barroso’s telephone conversation with Putin, the European Commission president claimed that the Russian leader said he could take Ukraine in two weeks.

    The Kremlin later responded that Putin’s words were misinterpreted and had completely different meaning.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2014 at 01:00 PM.

  17. #437
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BW---Germany has blocked Georgia and the Ukraine from NATO since 2008.
    Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

    Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.

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    Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.

    http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799

  19. #439
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Article about fallen Russian soldier from 19th brigade. Take a look at the pic, how they turned to be rebels. No polite green men fashion anymore. They are using same withe stripes of cloth like that Chechen video showed.

    http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799
    kaur---you will notice on some video analysis work by ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl that depicted a Russian SF recon unit inside the Ukraine several days before the actual crossing of Russian troops---they all wore white pieces of cloth on their uniforms---was also carried two months ago in three or four other videos---but supposedly from irregulars---begs the question below.

    You are right it is the same markings as seen with the "little green men" initially in the Crimea when this all started.

    question----If you look at the Navy SEAL video and analysis---he had been in the Ukraine---at least from his Russian social media page since Feb 2014. so when really did Russian start moving FSB/GRU and SF personnel into the Ukraine--apparently during the Maidan.

  20. #440
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    Yes, an expansive NATO was seen as encouraging Russian aggression. However, Russian actions are continuing to change that judgement. One thing Putin is getting from this is a rejuvenated NATO. He may very well get an expanded NATO.

    Ukraine is reversing course and going down that road.
    BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

    1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

    The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

    2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

    There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

    Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

    In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

    What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

    What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

    IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.

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