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Thread: Ukraine: military (Aug '14 to mid-June '15) closed

  1. #441
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    For those following Putin's comments--this Ukrainian writer sums up Putin's long term moves inside the Ukraine and it does not have anything to do with mistreated ethnic Russians or "New Russia".

    But we all know too well that Putin needs the “LNR” and “DNR” only as a springboard for further destabilization of the situation and exclusion of the entire south and east from Ukraine. The Kremlin doesn’t need the heaps of Donbas–it needs the scientific and industrial potential of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, as well as the strategic territory in the south represented by Odesa, Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts (in terms of support of Crimean livelihood and the connection to Transnistria, and taking control of the entire Ukrainian coast of the Azov and the Black Sea). This is a minimal program. Where the Moscow’s potentate [ambition] brings him next–is another question..

    The question raised---"where does it bring Putin next" is valid and should be kept in the back of one's mind when Putin talks about the Ukraine.

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    An interesting article by an UK author who has been calling these Russian actions since 2007.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-e...ad-363081.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.
    Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about?

    So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Yesterday via YouTube a Russian mercenary called Motorola threatened to fire BM21/27s missiles into Poland for the Polish voiced support for the Ukraine and more and more Polish fighters joining the UA Army to fight Russians.

    It seems the longer this rag tag army of the Ukraine hangs on and the higher the Russian military WIA/KIA tolls go the more ludicrous the statements are that are being made by Putin, his FM, and now his DM.
    This is an example of something I think perhaps is being overlooked, the effect of simple Ukrainian and (maybe especially) Polish cussedness in the face of Russian aggression. Sometimes we seem to think that if Mr. Obama and the Krauts don't go all in all is lost. Perhaps, but perhaps not. History does nothing if not reveal that the Poles and Ukrainians can fight and this simple ability may lead to the killing of lots of Russians which could throw a wrench in Mr. Putin's pudding. If they could just get lots and lots of decent anti-tank missiles...

    But my main point is we shouldn't be so quick to discount the fighting ability of the targeted peoples when figuring all this.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post
    Didn't you claim that they were irrational, criminal, rogues who behaved unpredictably because of their "altered state of reality" and had no interest in negotiations? So what are they trying to talk about?

    So - as predicted - Moscow escalates its commitment in Ukraine to forestall the defeat of its proxies at the hands of the Ukrainian Army. NATO announces the creation of a new task force and now we wait for the Russian response - the movement of missiles, the redeployment of troops, the termination of another treaty? My question to you has been and still remains - what outcome is in the best interest of the U.S. and where (and how) does the cycle of escalation end?
    AP--here is your problem--if you have actually been reading my comments you would notice that yes the West is trying to talk and I emphasize the term talk while Putin acts on his strategy ---for Putin actions speak far more than words--kind of his old KGB days.

    Remember I in fact said he was coming across the border what about six months ago--so the West has been talking for what six months and still nothing.

    So is he or is he not across the border and still what is the West doing "talking right"?

    Let's see--nuclear threats towards the West, threats to actually take Kiev, let's see roughly 10K "defense contractors" on vacation and still counting, and oh yes threatening Kazakhstan-and what the West is still "talking right?

    Is it not strange to you that the IS is not a strategic threat to say Des Moines Iowa but central Europe is not strategic to the US-and the Kurds get anti tank weapons and the IS has no tanks and yet the UA sees them daily--think about that ---does it make sense to you?

    So what has the "talking" gotten the West as of yet AP?

    Actually still nothing that I can see.

    Or do we join him in his "altered state of reality"

    Remember it was you who claimed he had reasons and we should understand those reasons--still think that?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2014 at 08:15 PM.

  6. #446
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    This is an example of something I think perhaps is being overlooked, the effect of simple Ukrainian and (maybe especially) Polish cussedness in the face of Russian aggression. Sometimes we seem to think that if Mr. Obama and the Krauts don't go all in all is lost. Perhaps, but perhaps not. History does nothing if not reveal that the Poles and Ukrainians can fight and this simple ability may lead to the killing of lots of Russians which could throw a wrench in Mr. Putin's pudding. If they could just get lots and lots of decent anti-tank missiles...

    But my main point is we shouldn't be so quick to discount the fighting ability of the targeted peoples when figuring all this.
    carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

    What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

    There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

    Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    carl--you bring up an interesting point---it was the rag tag independent BNs that took the fight to the separatists using a few UA/NG armored units and actually were driving them back with heavy loses for the separatists--then Russian heavy tanks rolled in and heavy artillery as well.

    What is interesting is the UA abilities to pull out of encirclements and they still have a bulk of their armored forces available

    There appears to be 18 MI8s coming from Croatia and if NATO allows their members to send individual equipment then in the long haul things will in fact head towards a bloody stalemate that costs Russia in terms of blood and treasure which is already impacting the Russian internal opinion polls similar to AFG.

    Germany just released 20K body armor sets and large amounts of field medical equipment for their wounded---things are slowly moving their way.
    carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.

    Guerilla Battalion from Harkiv

    This twitter site carries a lot of new Russian equipment IDs being seen in the Ukraine and or headed to the Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/lennutrajektoor?...71264835346432
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-02-2014 at 09:30 PM.

  8. #448
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    Stepping back a bit back, how long will this war go on?

    i) Putin has already annexed a part of Ukraine and seems to want another slice of it - at least that is what Ukraine and other powers have to take earnestly into account.

    ii) Putin got overall the initiative by breaking the political gameplay in Europe after suffering a crushing blow by the Maidan movement. Against his political and military aggression Ukraine and the West moved rather slowly and confused. However there has been some (economic) pushback and even the mild means are harming Russia.

    iii) Overall Putin's aggressive political goals forced him to involve more and more the regular armed forces which are likely not as motivated or well trained as some of the formations employed earlier.

    iv) The Russian economy is suffering already considerable damage, far more then EU one. It is difficult to see any big positive development unless this war stops. The balance sheet remains strong but the economy as a whole is heading downwards.

    v) The Russian aggression seems to be at least partly motivated by internal politics and enabled Putin to step up the oppression at home considerably, supported by a vicious propaganda campaign against his opponents.

    So what would stop his war?

    I will post more on the Ukrainian and on the Western side of the conflict, but so far the guy who lost Ukraine for Russia has only chosen escalation and violence to take at least parts from it.
    Last edited by Firn; 09-02-2014 at 10:08 PM.
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  9. #449
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    carl---this is where the UA new tactics are headed-regular Army/NG/Territorial Defense units will hold and then they are shifting to UW/guerrilla warfare--yes Russia can control territory but they do not have the troop numbers to avoid a guerrilla war---the Ukrainian SF companies have gone to ground and then this was blogged today.
    From my civilian standpoint I think of it as the Russians can control areas in which they choose to concentrate troops, cities say, and their heavy columns can go where they want but they cannot control the countryside on both sides of the roads that connect to Russia and over which their supplies must travel. This seems the ideal situation for UW/guerrilla warfare units to really hurt, and I mean really hurt, the logistics units that will be motoring down those roads. Maybe to the extent that the further the Russian units penetrate, the more isolated and in greater danger they will be.

    Is that about right?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  10. #450
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BW---as much as I beat up on the Russian leadership or lack thereof something is bubbling up from former liberal advisors next to Putin who are no longer in the inner circle.

    1. about 1-2 months ago a simple three/four paragraph article was lanced into the blogging world which indicated that the author had been immensely surprised by the speed of the sanctions, the severity and for him the aggressiveness that he would not have anticipated seeing from the West.

    The article was out for about three days and then drifted away with no follow up.

    2. then today another quick series of paragraphs in the Russian news agency RIA indicating 1) the Russian decision makers are not fully understanding the West and 2) the West is not fully understanding Russian views points.

    There seems to be the desire by some of Putin's inner circle for a "new Yalta" meeting---which would again "divide up the world into spheres of influence"--might in fact be coming from Putin himself.

    Putin desperately wants a sphere of influence and does not yet fully understand that since the Wall came down 25 years ago that concept died a sudden and final death in Europe as a whole.

    In some aspects that is why he is clashing with the West--Europe as a whole views the sphere thing totally dead and Putin is trying to resurrect it in the vision of the old SU.

    What is interesting in this article is the fact that several weeks ago the Russian FM actually came out in a short release basically pleading with the West---what is it you all want as we do not understand.

    What struck me was the honesty and bluntness of the comment which might have in fact been correct. When you see the massive amounts of junk the RIA places into space that release stuck out like a red flag--but then it suddenly disappeared as well.

    IMO they have been trying to talk with the West---it is simply they do not know how to without using the terms from the SU/Cold War days but that is because his inner circle advisors are ultra nationalists,/fascists and hardliners who basically hate the West and it's values.
    I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

    That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.
    Last edited by BrentWilliams; 09-03-2014 at 12:33 AM.

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    So nobody wants to answer my questions but just keeps on posting anti putin bull####.

    THIS IS A DIRECT challenge. TO ALL of you.



    Shall we list the lies USA/NATO has said in the last 20 years yet again? Let's.

    1990 babies taken out of incubators and left to die on cold hospital floor
    1990-1999 Saddam working on nuclear weapons
    2001 Osama engineered and did 9-11
    2001-2003 Saddam has ties with Ali Queda
    2001-2003 Saddam has weapons of mass distraction (Colin Powell, Bush jr, Cheney, Condy Rice, etc)
    2002-2203 Saddam working on weapons of mass distraction
    2002-2003 Saddam working on acquiring nuclear weapons
    2001 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2001 Iran has ties with Ali Queda
    2002 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2003 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2004 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2005 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2006 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2007 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2008 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2009 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2010 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2011 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2012 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2013 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 1)
    2013 Assad gassed his own people (part 2)
    2014 Iran will have nuclear bomb
    2014 Assad gassed his own people (part 3)

    Let's leave for now the lies USA used to start the Vietnam war, the Korean war, WWII, war againts Spain and so on. I havent listed the lies we have caught

    them about Ukraine. MH17, Russia invading(3 times, etc)


    Nobody wants to answer my questions about all the lies USA/NATO have said in the last 20 years and to answer to me WHY anyone would STILL believe anything USA/NATO says but you are quick to gut infractions on me.

    If you think I will stop you are all sadly mistaken. Again, I ask:
    After all the lies USA/NATO have said in the last 20 years why would anyone still believe anything USA/NATO says about anything? Unless one of course is either a hopeless total idiot or a shill. So .....which ones are you all?


    I DEMAND an answer.

    Direct challenge to Carl: answer my question please, dont try to be funny. If I don't get an answer, they I will know what you are. Somebody who cannot answer questions because he cannot.
    Last edited by Petkov; 09-03-2014 at 02:04 AM.

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    Come on you all smart guys, answer me, why would you believe USA government is telling the truth about Russia when he has been lying for 1000s of years?


    Come on, I dare you.

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    23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.

  14. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by Petkov View Post
    So nobody wants to answer my questions but just keeps on posting anti putin bull####.
    Yep.

    Quote Originally Posted by Petkov View Post
    Direct challenge to Carl: answer my question please, dont try to be funny. If I don't get an answer, they I will know what you are. Somebody who cannot answer questions because he cannot.
    And yep again.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petkov View Post
    23 pages of anti Russia anti Putin propaganda and not one real intelligent post. How sad.


    Petrov---I will give you an answer---did you as a Russian ever stop to think where all the gas/oil wealth went to---certainly you did not get the billions onto your bank account from your comments here.

    Secondly--just take a look at the current Russian society--and tell me and others here there is not a Fascist/Neo Nazi Revival inside Russian.

    Just how many Russian ultra nationalists/Neo Nazi/Fascist Russian "legal" groups are in fact fighting now against "other alleged Fascists " in the Ukraine

    Answer the question.

    Last time I countered---seven different groups---there are not that many Neo Nazi's left in Germany.

    So before you rant and rave--answer the question just how is it that the former Soviet Union spins so many different Nazi groups up to fight?

    Do you not think that Russia is in fact ultra nationalist with neo imperial dreams?

    Read this article my friend---- YES FASCISM is alive and well in Russia.

    Besides they are having a Russian approved Fascism Council meeting in the coming weeks at Yalta---answer the question comrade---why is that?

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...eturns-ukraine
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 06:41 AM.

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    Story about Russian airborne trooper, who played Ukrainian "Berkut" trooper at the time of Crimean referendum.

    http://argumentua.com/tainoe-stanovi...go-referenduma

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    I think that is about right. They see themselves as a world power and think they should have cold war type influence. But the problem is, they really aren't that significant of a player. You may disagree with this, but to me military power is based off of economic power. The reason we have a military that is strong is because we have an American economy that can support the type of diversified labor needed for that modern military. Russia is a sick country with major economic and demographic problems. Long term, its only hope is integration with Europe, not a return to the Cold War.

    That said, if they think it is in their interest to destabilize their neighbors and act against international norms, we should act. We might not have the political will to directly intervene here, but bigger picture we do have the will to do a lot that will affect Russia. We have shown the will for deeper economic sanctions. That will worsen their own internal problems long term. Security assistance to the Ukraine might be on the table. However, also of significant is a rejuvenated NATO which should expand and hem Russia in. It is time to draw a line and back it up with NATO and article 5.
    BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

    Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

    Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

    Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

    The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...re-363171.html

    AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

    BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

    Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

    Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

    Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

    His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

    IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

    Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

    BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs

    pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

    What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 01:25 PM.

  18. #458
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    Now the Russian "altered state of reality" is taking on contours.

    If one Googles' "Russian 2012 nuclear strategy" you will find in a number of Russian articles the mention of a first strike ability and going immediately to tactical nuclear weapons.

    If you then Google other Russian military articles say since 2008 there is a repeated fear by Russian military planners of a conventional war and losing that conventional war---they still regard NATO to be far stronger than the Russian Army even if it takes 28 countries to decide something.

    Which is probably a correct assessment of NATO combat abilities in a conventional environment--they view NATO forces to be better lead, professional and well equipped--especially the air forces.

    Thus the constant talk that is repeated in their new nuclear strategy released in 2012 which calls for a tactical first strike ability.

    So this Interfax press release might be designed to cause NATO to rethink especially in light of the coming NATO Russian decisions this week---but in the "altered state of reality" it has been there since 2012--so really nothing but hot air.

    The problem I foresee for Russia with their nuclear statements from today and the implied threat of tactical nukes being used in the Ukraine, and their tactical exercised nuke strike on Poland and the Baltics--- will be the demand by the weaken NATO members for a new missile shield which will then panic Russia and that is their worst nightmare---meaning a true threat to eliminate their first strike abilities---but again provoked by Russian actions and threats not by the West---as it was never really on the NATO agenda until now.

    Interfax from today 13:47

    Russia's updated military doctrine should stipulate preemptive nuke strike - military official

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BW--actually we tend to think along the same lines but with different emphasis.

    Today's newest example of the Russian "altered state of reality".

    Evidently the Presidents of the Ukraine and Russia have been discussing a "ceasefire"--then the Ukraine announces those talks as having made some progress and then Russia state media and Putin's press manager spent all morning here in Europe "walking those comments alluded to Russia back".

    Ever wonder why--Russia was playing their 15 card--meaning let's see if I can influence those wavering in the EU against more sanctions against me---meaning I will "give the allusion I am trying to solve the problem" thus just maybe the sanctions will not be so hard against me.

    The Russian statement after the Ukraine announced the news--was "we could not agree to a ceasefire as we have nothing to do with the conflict"----and we all know just "uninvolved Russia is".

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...re-363171.html

    AND again this Russian move was just in time for both the NATO and EU meetings.

    BUT then on the back side of the 15th card---he let's a Russian military armored convoy of over 122 vehicles--tanks, support vehicles, troop trucks and artillery simply convoy into the Ukraine all headed to the Donbas.

    Remember it was in fact Putin in front of Russian national press media who stated "he had ordered the FSB and the Border Security Command to "tighten up" border security"--that was two months ago and carried in the global media and what was the result of his "order to tighten up"?

    Convoy video analysis from open source -- ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl

    Putin is all about actions not talk right now.

    His economy is in fact hurting badly right now and the coming new sanctions are those that I have mentioned here a number of times- and it will cause more grief to his economy which is tanking rapidly --the EU is holding back the cut off from SWIFT as their "nuclear option" if he does not throttle back.

    IMO he is racing to get a "New Russia" solution in place--before his economy tanks badly and he has to explain the reasons for that to his own population who in the end be paying for his "adventures".

    Here is a prefect example of the "non involved Russia"---just how is it possible that the "Russian irregulars and mercenaries" claim to have an air force flying now from the totally destroyed Luhansk airport---the runway was completely cratered to deny use of the airfield by anyone?

    BREAKING RUSSIAN INVADERS CLAIM OPERATING AIR FORCE, 4 DAYS AFTER #LUHANSK #AIRPORT CAPTURE.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bewhWwZdzZs

    pic.twitter.com/3wfnXvbiYY

    What this now means are air strikes being flown by Russian "vacationing" pilots on in planes they "borrowed for their vacations as it was cheaper to fly than walk" on Ukrainian ground forces.
    This was being carried on the EuroMaidan site today concerning the open source analyzed Russian tank convoy--by the way the video was geo tagged as being in the Ukraine:

    2014/09/02 • Featured, War in Donbas

    The smoking gun: Russian column confirmed in Krasnodon

    Russia has invaded Ukraine and now there is irrefutable proof. Today a Krasnodon local riding on trolleybus route Nr.1 connecting Krasnodon with Molodohvardiysk filmed a Russian mechanized column...

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/0...-in-krasnodon/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-03-2014 at 01:29 PM.

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    Article concerning a new Russian website for Russian MIAs, KIAs, and WIAs in the Ukraine. The important piece of info---actually created and uploaded in Russia not from outside bloggers.

    You will notice a couple of individuals listed on the site with ties to the Russian SF and or were Russian SF trainers.

    http://en.inforesist.org/a-website-f...ted-in-russia/

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